Spent some of my Sunday afternoon crunching some numbers and came up with some interesting figures! I was looking to prove: firstly, that England rarely doubles their 30 over score (and should be thanking their top order, not bitching about their strike rates...); but secondly, that despite the latest trend of 'backending' an innings, the 30 over score would still be equivalent to half the final score. Turns out I was right on both counts!
All these stats come from:
*ODI matches between the big 8 teams
*since the 2011 World Cup ie. April 3 2011 and onwards
*first innings only (to eliminate run rate pressures during a chase).
The team batting first has faced their full 50 overs 95 times over this period. And keep in mind that teams innings where teams were bowled out before 50 overs won't be counted here.
Here was my method to find the 'halfway score': I simply looked through the commentary to find the point where the team was exactly halfway to their final, 50 over score. In cases where the final score was odd, I went upwards eg. for a final score of 201, 101 was the mark to reach.
The average over for the halfway score in these 95 innings was 29.70 overs, (and the median was 29.83 overs - or 29.5 overs in cricket terminology). So you can see the old addage of doubling the 30 over score to estimate the final total is almost exactly right.
Drilling down further, this is what the scoreboard read, on average, when each of the 8 teams was at their halfway score. I added the wickets and runs as well as they tell an interesting tale too:
Australia: 30.41 overs, 3.12 wickets, 133.29 runs (in 17 innings, AUS have doubled their 30 over score 10 times)
England: 28.75 overs, 2.17 wickets, 136.58 runs (in 12 innings, ENG have doubled their 30 over score 3 times)
India: 31.02 overs, 2.91 wickets, 147.07 runs (in 14 innings, IND have doubled their 30 over score 8 times)
New Zealand: 30.81 overs, 3.14 wickets, 132.29 runs (in 7 innings, NZ have doubled their 30 over score 5 times)
Pakistan: 26.74 overs, 1.57 wickets, 128.71 runs (in 7 innings, PAK have doubled their 30 over score 0 times)
South Africa: 28.43 overs, 2.10 wickets, 143.40 runs (in 10 innings, SA have doubled their 30 over score 3 times)
Sri Lanka: 29.11 overs, 2.53 wickets, 131.87 runs (in 15 innings, SL have doubled their 30 over score 7 times)
West Indies: 30.89 overs, 4.00 wickets, 124.92 runs (in 13 innings, WI have doubled their 30 over score 8 times)
Some conclusions...
Numbers show that Australia, India, New Zealand and West Indies doubled their scores from the 30 over point more often than not, as their average halfway score was reached at greater than 30 overs. That implies their middle/lower order has been stronger than their top order in the last 2 years for these 4 teams. These were also the 4 teams that had generally lost the most wickets at their halfway score, further supporting that theory of a weaker top order.
Then we've got the other 4 nations: England, Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka who have typically reached their halfway score before 30 overs came up. That implies their top order is stronger than the middle/lower order. These 4 also lost less wickets by halfway than the previous 4 nations mentioned above. That interests me, because even though these 4 nations had more wickets in hand at halfway, they couldn't double their scores as frequently as AUS, IND, NZ and WI could.
Does this bust the idea of keeping wickets in hand to make a big late charge? Perhaps, but England and South Africa in particular were generally able to score very well in the first half of their innings, making it more difficult to double that good score in the last 20 overs. India though have proved it is possible to do it, even with good starts. Shows how consistently useful Dhoni is I guess.
Hopefully that hasn't been too confusing, just wanted to provide some figures for anyone wondering
All these stats come from:
*ODI matches between the big 8 teams
*since the 2011 World Cup ie. April 3 2011 and onwards
*first innings only (to eliminate run rate pressures during a chase).
The team batting first has faced their full 50 overs 95 times over this period. And keep in mind that teams innings where teams were bowled out before 50 overs won't be counted here.
Here was my method to find the 'halfway score': I simply looked through the commentary to find the point where the team was exactly halfway to their final, 50 over score. In cases where the final score was odd, I went upwards eg. for a final score of 201, 101 was the mark to reach.
The average over for the halfway score in these 95 innings was 29.70 overs, (and the median was 29.83 overs - or 29.5 overs in cricket terminology). So you can see the old addage of doubling the 30 over score to estimate the final total is almost exactly right.
Drilling down further, this is what the scoreboard read, on average, when each of the 8 teams was at their halfway score. I added the wickets and runs as well as they tell an interesting tale too:
Australia: 30.41 overs, 3.12 wickets, 133.29 runs (in 17 innings, AUS have doubled their 30 over score 10 times)
England: 28.75 overs, 2.17 wickets, 136.58 runs (in 12 innings, ENG have doubled their 30 over score 3 times)
India: 31.02 overs, 2.91 wickets, 147.07 runs (in 14 innings, IND have doubled their 30 over score 8 times)
New Zealand: 30.81 overs, 3.14 wickets, 132.29 runs (in 7 innings, NZ have doubled their 30 over score 5 times)
Pakistan: 26.74 overs, 1.57 wickets, 128.71 runs (in 7 innings, PAK have doubled their 30 over score 0 times)
South Africa: 28.43 overs, 2.10 wickets, 143.40 runs (in 10 innings, SA have doubled their 30 over score 3 times)
Sri Lanka: 29.11 overs, 2.53 wickets, 131.87 runs (in 15 innings, SL have doubled their 30 over score 7 times)
West Indies: 30.89 overs, 4.00 wickets, 124.92 runs (in 13 innings, WI have doubled their 30 over score 8 times)
Some conclusions...
Numbers show that Australia, India, New Zealand and West Indies doubled their scores from the 30 over point more often than not, as their average halfway score was reached at greater than 30 overs. That implies their middle/lower order has been stronger than their top order in the last 2 years for these 4 teams. These were also the 4 teams that had generally lost the most wickets at their halfway score, further supporting that theory of a weaker top order.
Then we've got the other 4 nations: England, Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka who have typically reached their halfway score before 30 overs came up. That implies their top order is stronger than the middle/lower order. These 4 also lost less wickets by halfway than the previous 4 nations mentioned above. That interests me, because even though these 4 nations had more wickets in hand at halfway, they couldn't double their scores as frequently as AUS, IND, NZ and WI could.
Does this bust the idea of keeping wickets in hand to make a big late charge? Perhaps, but England and South Africa in particular were generally able to score very well in the first half of their innings, making it more difficult to double that good score in the last 20 overs. India though have proved it is possible to do it, even with good starts. Shows how consistently useful Dhoni is I guess.
Hopefully that hasn't been too confusing, just wanted to provide some figures for anyone wondering
