I'm going to put my credibility on the line here and pitch for an England victory.
Reason: This is not a typical Oval wicket. For the ball to be going through the top and turning sharply on day 1 tells me this is a result pitch.
Johnson has been successful; so will Flintoff and Harmison if they pitch it just short of a length. Swann will tie batsman up and bowl unplayable wicket balls
Aus all out for 214.
Under normal circumstances I would agree, but England have "kept faith" with certain players who are VERY lucky to still be in the side, and the aussies have few/no passengers in their side. They also tend not to throw their wickets away and bowl much better than us.
I said on 606 that I thought 370+ would be a total England need to aim at, they could fall well short but then the pitch might be more helpful to the bowlers than England's 'best' position of 176/2 might suggest. It does depend on how well England bowl and the aussies bat, with only one change in the bowling attack, the unlucky Onions (best average of all England bowlers in the series) dropped, it is hard to imagine they will suddenly get it right.
Strauss - led the way again, just ONE more run and he'd be averaging 50 in the series. Take away his HS of 161 and he'd still be averaging 34 which would be same as Bell and better than Collingwood, Cook and Bopara.
Cook - another innings without a contribution of note, take away his 95 and his next HS is 32 and he'd be averaging only a run or two more than Bopara
Bell - battled away to make another fifty, twice as many as Cook in the series in two less Tests and yet Bell is always the one criticised.
Collingwood - has a clear (technique) problem batting that he hasn't resolved, he's ok when he hits the ball but too often LBW when he doesn't as a consequence of said problem. Scored three fifties in the series, the hero of Cardiff but 24 is his HS of the last three Tests.
Trott - looked every part a Test player, was he unlucky to be run out or is that merely a bad habit from too much county and one day cricket? Shame because he could have made a big-gish fifty and steered England into a more comfortable position.
Prior - a relative disappointment this innings, but averaging near 37 against the aussies for a keeper is only what we'd expect from Stewart, or possibly one of Russell or Jones in good nick
Flintoff - not concinving, didn't seem to want to play the situation or himself in and was out to the waft - a typical English shot and yet "lessons were learned" according to our captain. Was Flintoff excused class? Do the lessons learned get forgotten?
Broad - decent knock so far, has at least made runs when it matters this Test and hopefully can score another 30+ to give England a good total to bowl at.
Swann - too brief a cameo as I was hoping he and Broad could put on a hundred like has happened before with the likes of Gough, DeFreitas and Sid Lawrence.
On the bowling front we have to hope Swann can be a match-winner, he's bowled six times and taken 0/131, 0/4, 4/87, 1/4, 1/119 & 0/64 - hardly what you'd want from your 1st choice spinner. Broad is sadly much the same, half his series wickets coming in the 4th Test and the rest costing 69 apiece. Harmison was brought in and some thought he'd do well, 2/98 is hardly the return of the king. Onions by comparison had done nothing wrong and is dependable, Harmison is more of a gamble. Anderson has had an up and down series, 4/55 & 0/86 at Lords, 5/80 and 1/47 at Edgbaston but 2/110 and 0/89 at Cardiff in the 1st Test and 4th Test respectively. Flintoff is hailed as our great match-winner, but 5wis are pretty rare from him and this series his 5wi sits pretty in the middle of four ordinary to poor returns : 1/128, 1/27, 5/92, 0/58 & 0/35. As with Broad, Harmison and Swann, his average doesn't lie (48.57 for the series)
Even if this pitch is somewhat less of a batting paradise than many thought it would be, the onus is still on the bowlers to bowl well which is something England often fail or forget to do. In theory we should have the upper hand with a spinner and some variety in our bowling, the problem is our variety in the bowling department tends to be line, length and result. A few extra runs scored today could make a world of difference, but it is how we bowl in our first full session of bowling that will shape the Test.
As I recall the Oval Test of 2005 we scored 373, the aussies were set to pass that when England fought back and managed a slight 1st innings lead before we fought our way to safety. If we'd bowled as well to start with as we did to finish the aussies off, then we might even have forced a win. The highest score of that Test was only 373
Oval 2005 - England vs Australia
England 1st Inns 373
Strauss 129, Flintoff 72 (England were 131/4). Warne 6/122
Australia 1st Inns 367
Langer 105, Hayden 138 (Australia were 264/1). Hoggard 4/97, Flintoff 5/78
England 2nd Inns 335
Pietersen 158, Giles 59 (England were 126/5). Warne 6/124
Australia 2nd Inns 4/0
Interesting that Warne took 12 wickets in the match, Giles took nil albeit he only bowled once. It is also interesting that in all three completed innings it was an innings of two halves, either recovering in England's case or collapsing in the aussies'