It's not a potential future for several reasons, not least because you'd have to have someone interpreting the technology, this is why DRS, or any similar technology developed in the future cannot be 100%, there is a human implementation of it in several aspects, from the people creating the technology to the people using it to make decisions, the third umpire at the moment.
You can't have infallible technology given enough scenarios and human inputs. From as simple a task making you to count from one to ten and back to one again, if I ask you to do it enough times, you will make a mistake.
Just as in under certain conditions Hawkeye can have a margin of error as high as about 25mm (think about that in relation to the size of the ball).
That's still quite low (and a very rare occurrence, too), really. What makes it the most confusing is how there are some people who'd prefer it to be left to umpires, even though their margin of error will be many times greater than that with the dodgy human eye.
Look at the current human element:
Of course all technology can be improved over time, it's the very essence of technology, review and improve. It'll improve, but right now I think the bigger problems are with how we make the game work with DRS, not the other way around.
You look at the use of goal line technology in football, it will inevitably happen (when Sepp Blatter gets kicked out, probably). It'll get rid of the horrors, like DRS does, but when it is borderline as to whether it is just over the line or not (like with a catch that is close to the ground), it won't be that helpful with, as it can't be due to the people interpreting the data.
Unfortunately the biggest problem DRS faces is the misconception and misunderstanding of how it works by the people who oppose it.
http://www.hawkeyeinnovations.co.uk/UserFiles/File/Hawk-Eye accuracy and believability2.pdf
Read it, if you haven't already done so. The game is better off with it, I see no logic in the reason behind taking a step backwards and introducing more bad decisions in to the game.
In any case, I don't see DRS ever replacing umpires, it will continue to exist as an umpires aid. Not least because of the points above, but because it'd be against the game and because of the all other stuff umpires do that technology couldn't.
You can't have infallible technology given enough scenarios and human inputs. From as simple a task making you to count from one to ten and back to one again, if I ask you to do it enough times, you will make a mistake.
Just as in under certain conditions Hawkeye can have a margin of error as high as about 25mm (think about that in relation to the size of the ball).
Hawkeye creators said:An ?extreme? LBW is one where there is less than 40cm of travel between pitching
point and interception point and the batsman is hit over 2 meters from the stumps.
That's still quite low (and a very rare occurrence, too), really. What makes it the most confusing is how there are some people who'd prefer it to be left to umpires, even though their margin of error will be many times greater than that with the dodgy human eye.
Look at the current human element:
Hawkeye creators said:Is the Hawk-Eye system fully automatic?
3 Hawk-Eye staff are required to operate the Hawk-Eye system. Their roles include:
1. Lining up and calibrating the cameras
2. Measuring the pitch and the stumps which do vary from ground to ground
3. 1 member of staff is responsible for the virtual reality graphics and offers
LBW replays and all the other Hawk-Eye features to the TV director.
4. The other 2 members of staff both are responsible for the tracking. They work
independently of each other to provide redundancy, but are able to see a
comparison of the two tracks. If they are different for any reason, they can be
pro-active in working out why rather than being re-active after a LBW appeal.
On a ball by ball basis they would do the following:
a. hit a button to tell the system that a ball has been bowled and trigger
the tracking
b. manually fine tune the point on the trajectory where interception with
the batsman was made. Automatically the system is only able to
determine the interception point to the nearest frame of Hawk-Eye
video running at 106 frames per second. This can be improved
manually and is the only way to ensure that the interception point is
accurate to 5mm.
c. Tune settings to account for varying light conditions
d. Tune settings to deal with camera wobble
Of course all technology can be improved over time, it's the very essence of technology, review and improve. It'll improve, but right now I think the bigger problems are with how we make the game work with DRS, not the other way around.
You look at the use of goal line technology in football, it will inevitably happen (when Sepp Blatter gets kicked out, probably). It'll get rid of the horrors, like DRS does, but when it is borderline as to whether it is just over the line or not (like with a catch that is close to the ground), it won't be that helpful with, as it can't be due to the people interpreting the data.
Unfortunately the biggest problem DRS faces is the misconception and misunderstanding of how it works by the people who oppose it.
http://www.hawkeyeinnovations.co.uk/UserFiles/File/Hawk-Eye accuracy and believability2.pdf
Read it, if you haven't already done so. The game is better off with it, I see no logic in the reason behind taking a step backwards and introducing more bad decisions in to the game.
In any case, I don't see DRS ever replacing umpires, it will continue to exist as an umpires aid. Not least because of the points above, but because it'd be against the game and because of the all other stuff umpires do that technology couldn't.