Simple and efficient rain rule for interrupted T20 games

[kleiber]

Dear Friends,

This is a follow-up to a similar thread I posted sometime in mid 2014. Please find an updated spreadsheet calculator in the link below that implements a simple rain rule for resetting targets in rain interrupted T20 matches.

Miscellaneous - Scientific Computing@IITG

It is quite different in implementation from D/L but surprisingly works as good as or better than D/L for most of the practical scenarios that I have tested it for. I would like to know feedback of interested cricket enthusiasts on the calculator.

Regards,
kleiber

 

[ethybubs]

So I've had a look at one possibility so far and I'm not sure of this system, because in this scenario the team batting first scored at 7.8 RPO yet the team batting second needs just 5.85 RPO, and then we must take into account that they wouldn't have known it was going to rain, and if they were to score at 6 RPO for the first four overs they would come out needing 8 an over and probably score somewhere around 7 an over for the next 3 overs (at least) and end up around 45. Leaving them just 31 off 36, an easy target, where as if they had to bat for 20 overs at that rate they would be looking at about 67 runs off the last 36 ball.

 

[kleiber]

Dear Ethybubs,

It is not quite clear to me as to what scenario you are looking at. If you are looking at a single interruption in the second innings that happens at 4 overs for the loss of 1 wicket and game rescheduled to 13 overs, then the number of interruptions must be 1 and not 2. If you are looking at two interruptions, the second has happened at 7 (as seen in the snapshot), but you say that the number of overs to which it is rescheduled to is 0 ( the number below 7). This could be a different number but greater than or equal to 7 and less than or equal to 13, the former meaning that the innings terminated at end of 7 overs and the latter equivalent to a single interruption itself. I request you to kindly re-run the case and see if the results are reasonable.

I would also like to point out that RPO must not be a single-point criteria on deciding revised targets and the wickets also matter. Furthermore, as you will also appreciate, there is no unique value of the revised target that is correct. The method only attempts to account for the combined resources (wickets + overs) to obtain a revised target that presumably falls in an acceptable range, which could look (depending on how you see it!)counter-intuitive, at times. Your comments are most welcome.

Regards,
kleiber

 

[ethybubs]

I understand the problem, however by saying this:

there is no unique value of the revised target that is correct

Doesn't it make the point of a new rain rule unnecessary.

 

[kleiber]

I understand the problem, however by saying this:

Doesn't it make the point of a new rain rule unnecessary.

A likely question that most people ask when a method is proposed is "How do I know this is correct ?". As far as determining revised targets are concerned, the validation turns out to be a difficult task. My reason of stating that " there is no unique value of the revised target that is correct " was to emphasize this point
Of course, a new rain rule is necessary for T20 because D/L has its flaws for the shortest version of the game, with its targets being criticized too low particularly when the second innings gets shortened to 8 overs or less, as with the Eng-WI matches in consecutive T20 WCs. Moreover, it is not clear how the Proefessional Edition of the D/L, that requires a computer, works nor is it available for use (WinCODA) to the public. The proposed method is reasonable in terms of revised targets for different scenarios, works on a simple principle that requires no specialized software or computer and can be understood by anyone with a basic knowledge of the T20 game and high school mathematics. The method is therefore meant to be a common man's rain rule for T20, which any viewer can use to obtain ball-park target values, that agree well with the D/L in cases where the first innings scores are not too high and the second innings duration (in terms of overs) are not too low.

Regards,
kleiber