I've (almost) given up trying to guess when it'll come out. I've been hoping maybe some retail site knows something we don't and asking at the stores, seeing what they have on their system, etc. At the end of the day they all vary and all probably know nothing more than we do.
The best I got from EB today when I bought Rugby League Live 2: World Cup Edition was that it's on their system for 31st of December this year, which the manager said was odd, but to her credit she didn't really try to speculate, she just said something along the lines of that "games are so unpredictable, some are brought forward, some slide and some turn up exactly when they say they will, so who knows". To be fair to her she was right and it gave me some perspective. I want this game, but I have plenty more going on in my life right now and it'll show up when it does.
I also pre-ordered because, in case any New Zealanders are wondering, we can get the steel box as a EB Games pre-order. So that was great news.