First things first. The fact that Australia have not added MacGill is no indication of the pitch. The chairman of selectors basically said that they wouldn't play MacGill without Watson there to provide a third seam option. This leaves me to believe that the pitch may well turn.
Anyways, on to the team that can win us the second test. Simple in my opinion. The batting looked stronger as the First test progressed and we have very little scope for change so there is no point in tinkering. Therefore the bowling is the problem. Panesar should play, no matter what in my opinion. He may fall flat on his face, but we need to look at him. If it turns, play Giles as well, if it doesn't unleash Saj. Anderson is too much like Hoggard so we lack variation and if the conditions don't help, he'll struggle. So:
Cook
Strauss
Bell
Collingwood
Pietersen
Flintoff
Jones
Giles/Mahmood
Harmison
Hoggard
Panesar.