Living in pre-2012 aren't you? We nearly won our first Test in England back in 2018, beat Australia at Adelaide the same year and could've won the D/N Test not for that 36 all out.
Nearly, could've, would've, . . . . the result still stands for those losses.
Ignoring those past matches and "winning the first Test" probability, both teams are not on equal footing. NZ have played two Tests in England already and are riding high with confidence with an overseas win over England. India didn't have those sort of "warmup Test fixtures" prior to the final but only their inter-squad matches which in no way can compare to playing an opposition like England in their own conditions. Given the weather however, looks like it will be mostly cloudy and the ball will talk if there are enough overs to play. It looks like NZ will field a lineup with a long tail with Jamieson at 7 for the game as well, which India can target but they will have five in form Kiwi bowlers against them. NZ clearly start out as favorites. But again, anything can happen in the game.