Hats off to England pulling out a great bowling performance here. I missed most of the day, probably luckily since I'd probably have spent most of it tearing my hair out.
We depend (over-)extensively on our opening pair, and especially Sehwag to give our innings some momentum. Even if he fails (gets about 20-30 odd) he gets them in such quick time that we have at least some runs on the board, and the field is spread a bit. He was kept very quiet early on, and I think that's where England did very well. If you compare that to the starts India got against Australia (ODI-esque) starts, you see why the English have come out solidly on top here.
It seems that Graeme Swann's wickets were somewhat freakish and not in the Mendis vein. I am hopeful that he will not cause us too many problems in the rest of the 3 innings in this series. We really need to put at least 250 on board to keep this within control, or pull out a breath-taking bowling performance.
I'd say England win, draw and Indian win is the probability of events, in order, now, and that's if there is some rain involved.