Alright so here's my final numbers for NRR
Team | NRR (Swing) | NRR (Nominal) |
Bangladesh | -3.630 | -0.912 |
China | -0.460 | -0.415 |
India | +9.540 | +2.968 |
Kazakhstan | -0.550 | -0.332 |
Nepal | -6.470 | -2.030 |
Pakistan | +3.030 | +0.723 |
Palestine | -1.090 | -0.332 |
Qatar | +2.680 | +1.087 |
Saudi Arabia | -0.600 | +0.150 |
Sri Lanka | -2.300 | -0.664 |
As it stands Saudi Arabia would jump China in terms of NRR and make the Semi-Finals, however
@Paranoid Kendroid has brought up the completely unrelated question of can Saudi Arabia even jump in the first place? My current logic with the Head to Head tiebreak is that it takes absolute priority over everything else, therefore I normally construct the table with this in mind and if a team doesn't fit in cleanly to this I use NRR to clarify the table. With this the current order of things based off of a purely H2H sense is China is at the top of a H2H chain, with Pakistan being below them, Bangladesh being below Pakistan and Kazakhstan being below Bangladesh. Saudi Arabia would of fit in nicely below Kazakhstan since they lost to them, however Saudi Arabia also beat Bangladesh in the opening game of the tournament, creating a H2H circle (or a circle of suck) which means Saudi Arabia has to be placed through NRR when compared to both Bangladesh and Kazakhstan. Of course Saudi Arabia also didn't play either Pakistan or China in the tournament, meaning that for every team that the Saudis are tied with they have to be placed through NRR when in comparison. As a result of this Saudi Arabia is first compared to the top of the H2H chain, that being China and since they have a higher NRR they are placed above them even though they lost to Kazakhstan who is at the bottom of this chain. Paranoid however has brought up the idea that since Saudi Arabia is in this H2H circle with both Bangladesh and Kazakhstan, and that both Kazakhstan and Bangladesh lost to teams higher up the H2H chain, it must indicate that Saudi Arabia's H2H should be tied to the H2H circle and unlike current thinking it means that Saudi Arabia cannot jump China and by extension Pakistan even though their NRR is higher then China's. This frankly is an issue due to the Swiss format used and the fact only four rounds were played. Normally if I had the time I would just force a fifth Swiss round to break the large amount of ties that we have and take the results from that extra round to determine the knockouts, however we don't have that time due to the World Cup. As I see it there are a few ways forward.
#1: We use direct H2H as has been used for the entirety of this tournament, meaning Saudi Arabia goes through as the #3 seed and China goes through as the #4 seed with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Kazakhstan being the three that miss out in that order.
#2: We use Paranoid's suggestion, meaning that all this NRR calculations were worthless because the only thing that changes is Saudi Arabia goes ahead of Kazakhstan in the final rankings. This also means China goes through as the #3 seed and Pakistan goes through as the #4 seed.
#3: Force Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to play a play-in game on the 21st, the winner plays India in the Semis which would be moved to the 23rd and the final is moved to the 26th, meaning if the Final is tied no replay will be issued and we would go straight to a bowl-out. This is the
fun option but also the most unrealistic.
Again I would like to apologize for the massive ****up I didn't notice over the past six months I've been running the confederation. In the future this will not happen again.