Pakistan being Pakistan, you'll never know what to expect. They can be utterly shit or own any team on any day. I'd say it'd be a tussle between Pakistan and NZ to get that 2nd spot. If we're talking about the Ind v Pak game, it'd still be 50-50 on that unpredictability factor. Pakistan need to fix their middle order, it's pretty unsettled at the moment, Rizwan and Babar won't fire everyday to get them to the top two. Their bowlers also seem to be on the decline in form barring Hasan Ali. India have a pretty settled batting order now, with very good backup options. They've got an issue with the specialist spinner, Chahal/Kuldeep needs to regain form with the ball for India to pose a threat on the dry tracks.
Wouldn't say NZ are definitely gonna make the top two, because their team with new players like Conway and some of the other middle order bats haven't been tested on slow, dry pitches that are expected for the WT20. Same goes for their spinners, because NZ often go pace heavy when they play T20I's at home. You never know what Afghanistan will be upto, T20's are their forte and I expect them to surprise one of the big guns in Ind, NZ and Pak. Might even go further than that and make the top two.