After seeing how Pak's bowlers performed against the Indian batsmen, I'd say SL are favourites for this. SL's bowling is as good, if not close, as Pak's and their top 4 are in tremendous form. The Indian line-up isn't as good as it appeared on paper.
Plus SL will be the more focussed of the two. India have just come of an emotion-fuelled clash against Pak. That takes a while to come down from.
Not so much emotionally fueled for the team. The fans and the media, it was.
Regarding this final, here is some analysis for India for this big final:
India
+ Playing in home conditions; their recent record against Sri Lanka at home ODI's (even away ODI's) has been spectacular to say the least.
+ India have been tested very well in this tournament. They have had a heart breaking loss to SA, and were taken very close by quite a few teams. They have chased, defended and had a good test at that
+ Their bowling attack, which was rated so low at the beginning, is finally coming to terms at the right time in the tournament. The inclusion of Ashwin and the good work of Munaf-Nehra makes things more rosy for India
- Having reached the summit clash against a team that India has beaten soundly so often, India could possibly be complacent. Had it been Australia or South Africa, India would be on their toes. But Sri Lanka gives us a sense of comfort that could easily translate into complacency
- The batting has not clicked as well as expected. Worrying is the form of a few like Dhoni, Kohli and Gambhir (to an extent). With all that, we reached the final but we must hope these guys fire or atleast help the others take us to a good total that can enable us to win.
Final Verdict: India should win this comfortably, but Sri Lanka wont be pushovers.