I always find it annoying the way the English media put a side "on top" before much of the reply has taken place. Last night I was thinking the aussies would still be in it if they only took 2-3 wickets in the morning session and they have so far matched England.
Bell is absolutely pivotal in this, he needs to stay in and Swann needs to stay with him like they're married. England may have to settle for a small deficit, I can't see Tremlett, Anderson and Finn putting on many runs although they might hang around.
So Swann gets out. 230-240 would be good from here, in what could be a low scoring game you don't want to be conceding much more than 30-40 runs, although the BBC said :
"I don't think either side will have a very big lead"
Makes me wonder if it is whoever said that's first cricket match, because a "big lead" depends on the pitch and the size of scores, it isn't arbitrarily say 100+ runs or some fixed margin/scale. In 11 1st innings deficits as captain, Strauss has only once overturned a deficit of more than 23 runs to win a Test and that was a win by default as Pakistan were sat crying in their dressing room.
Vaughan only overcame deficits of more than eight runs three times, twice of 35 runs over New Zealand and West Indies and once of 179 runs against New Zealand - no world beaters there! Shows that deficits don't have to be big to be difficult to overturn, neither Vaughan nor Strauss have overturned 1st innings deficits of more than 23 runs against anyone decent.
Owzat added 6 Minutes and 47 Seconds later...
Bell out, that could be a 50+ run lead and 1-1. England just didn't sustain the pressure and keep taking wickets, 68 runs for the 6th wicket, 52 runs for the 7th wicket but perhaps crucially 67 runs for the last two wickets. Fair enough with Hussey and Haddin getting runs, even Johnson, but Siddle 35 and Hilfenhaus 13 is poor - especially when the aussie top four scored 31 between them, none higher than Hilfenhaus' 13
Owzat added 1 Minutes and 18 Seconds later...
Tremlett out, we might not even make 200
Owzat added 8 Minutes and 8 Seconds later...
78/0 to 98/5
181/6 to 187 all out
The only consolation so far is that the aussies decision to drop/"rest" Johnson looks laughable now
But as in any Test series, you can't assume because one team won a Test comfortably that they'll win the next one, even if they bowl the opposition out on the 1st day