I would count every other game releasing as direct competition, not just AC13. From what Ross has told us DBC14 is basically complete, it doesnt look like AC13 is releasing before late November. Thing is for a game that is complete i dont think it should really matter when AC13 is releasing, unless they are hell bent on releasing it after AC13 is released.
Just assuming here but the general consensus on this forum is that before end of October is unlikely now and November is off because AC13 looks to be in November, so late december is what i can assume to be the date. Personally i dont think it makes any sense to delay a relatively complete game by 4 months because of competition.