End Game Explosive Mafia - Endgame Mafia (zwarrior, asprin & RUDOLPH)

[surendar]

Firstly, there was a confusion of bomber's role. It was when Simon cleared their roles, we got the clear idea of what or when they can carryout their roles. Before that, we were completely unaware about how their roles function.

I can still say that taking risk can help us, but before that we must understand that there was no kill by the mafia. Which means that their no. is intact. If there was a kill, we could take risk as we know that there are just two Mafias with one being bomber who can kill himself while other one doesn't have a role. If we got the second one right and the bomber kills himself, we have won. But Mafia has played smartly by not killing anyone. They are still 3 in no. and we can't take risk right now. One wrong lynch can get a townie die and bomber take another townie with him. Two townies are lost at once.

okay, but the numbers are same for both town and mafia on Day 1 + Day 2. Trying to understand your point still why your conclusion is swaying two ways.

Even before bombing rules got clarified, results of lynching wrong townie was the same.

i.e., old misunderstood rule by many including me - Bombers will get activated if there is a lynch and lynch should be below majority

Say scenario 1(old), Town is lynched : Then Mafia would not even care to bomb this time and they would wait for lynch to reach majority and town will go one down before bombing and it will add advantage in Day 2 for Mafia to bomb and bring down one townie. i.e. 2 is lost

scenario 2(old), Mafia is lynched : Mafia bomber would activate and take townie with them. i.e. 1 mafia is lost and 1 townie is lost.

new clarified rule - Bombers can be activated anytime

Both scenarios will give same results even in this newly clarified rules.

So with respect to townies getting wrongly lynched, bombers rules or the risk was and is still the same for the outcome.

@PresidentEvil - If you are willing to take risk, who do you doubt?

 

[RUDI]

No Lynch
Going with @Fake Password theory at the moment. Hopefully it will work...

The K-9 role seem to be a tricky one, hopefully Simon selected a level headed guy for this PR. I've he defuse the wrong bomb it could have disastrous consequences for us. With the no lynch strategy in place, hopefully we can sus out some suspicious behavior.

 

[Targaryen]

okay, but the numbers are same for both town and mafia on Day 1 + Day 2. Trying to understand your point still why your conclusion is swaying two ways.

Even before bombing rules got clarified, results of lynching wrong townie was the same.

i.e., old misunderstood rule by many including me - Bombers will get activated if there is a lynch and lynch should be below majority

Say scenario 1(old), Town is lynched : Then Mafia would not even care to bomb this time and they would wait for lynch to reach majority and town will go one down before bombing and it will add advantage in Day 2 for Mafia to bomb and bring down one townie. i.e. 2 is lost

scenario 2(old), Mafia is lynched : Mafia bomber would activate and take townie with them. i.e. 1 mafia is lost and 1 townie is lost.

new clarified rule - Bombers can be activated anytime

Both scenarios will give same results even in this newly clarified rules.

So with respect to townies getting wrongly lynched, bombers rules or the risk was and is still the same for the outcome.

@PresidentEvil - If you are willing to take risk, who do you doubt?

Most of them are posting quite smartly. I don't think I've got a name to mention here about who I think might be mafia. Almost all of them are going after each other and justifying and explaining their acts and posting on their defense.

I honestly have no name currently. It is the first time in Mafia game that I'm not able to find anything worth questioning about others. But I do want to ask the people who want to go 'lynching' everyday. FP has posted why we should go for 'No Lynch' but I haven't found anything worth considering about taking risk scenario. Apart from taking risk and IF the target is right, we'll and good. But IF target goes wrong, we will lose a townie and Mafia might decide to kill a townie to reduce the no. of townie to 4. Then on Day 4, they try to Lynch another townie and take a townie with them. No. reduced to 2 townies and 1 mafia. If they take k9 unit and/or town bomb, we have lost this. The more efficient way is, wait, wait and wait..

 

[swacker]

Firstly, there was a confusion of bomber's role. It was when Simon cleared their roles, we got the clear idea of what or when they can carryout their roles. Before that, we were completely unaware about how their roles function.

It was quite clearly written in first post, people getting confused is a thing, while trying to have a reason is another. Simon just made a point that a bomb and a majority lynch wouldn't happen, which was the only thing that was unclear.

It is not funny that I went after FP as FOS in middle and later thanked him, I agree. Because those bomber rules elaboration made sense in middle & I was able to connect where FP is coming from. I also acknowledged FP that I was good and thanked him and Simon even before Day2.

I am just putting my opinion, no hard feelings, never had anything against it.

Say scenario 1(old), Town is lynched : Then Mafia would not even care to bomb this time and they would wait for lynch to reach majority and town will go one down before bombing and it will add advantage in Day 2 for Mafia to bomb and bring down one townie. i.e. 2 is lost

Now what I think is, if a townie lynch has reached majority the mafia bomber wouldn't go bomb himself, but rather will just keep playing the next day, and wait for us to lynch another townie and bomb the remaining when time comes.

 

[surendar]

Most of them are posting quite smartly. I don't think I've got a name to mention here about who I think might be mafia. Almost all of them are going after each other and justifying and explaining their acts and posting on their defense.

I honestly have no name currently. It is the first time in Mafia game that I'm not able to find anything worth questioning about others. But I do want to ask the people who want to go 'lynching' everyday. FP has posted why we should go for 'No Lynch' but I haven't found anything worth considering about taking risk scenario. Apart from taking risk and IF the target is right, we'll and good. But IF target goes wrong, we will lose a townie and Mafia might decide to kill a townie to reduce the no. of townie to 4. Then on Day 4, they try to Lynch another townie and take a townie with them. No. reduced to 2 townies and 1 mafia. If they take k9 unit and/or town bomb, we have lost this. The more efficient way is, wait, wait and wait..

I am still not entirely convinced on answer from your reply. i.e. when you are saying lynching every day, are you referring to select random person despite having no suspects?

Lets walk through on your quotes in bold scenario, worst case is always good to assess first. We have 6 townies and 3 mafias. Okay we have lynched townie on Day 2. Count is down to 5 for town and 3 for mafia. As per you scenario of Day 3, we are going to loose one more by mafia bomb. So we have now, 4 townie and 2 mafia on Day 4.

Till this, I am good - but from here,

• Mafia chooses to bomb on Day 5 - This will affect mafia only as we still have 3 townie and 1 mafia and by this stage, we would be in much better shape to identify the events happening and spot the scum out.
• Mafia not choose to bomb on Day 5 - This will still be in town's favor as 4 townies would be cautious enough and get together well with just 2 mafias left behind. This stage, I would see Mafia on backfoot.

Last 2 points is with assumption that we do not have K9 or town bomb, but if we have K9 - Town is going to dominate even further putting us in better shape. And if town bomb is taken ahead of K9, it is going to make job simpler for K9 for needing to diffuse 1 bomb less than the total adding advantage to town.

Anyway back to this Day 2,

This is second day for K9, meaning there are possibilities of K9 even diffusing the bomb if he has already got bomb as result on Day 1. Best situation for the town now is to wait for K9 diffusing all the 3 bombers including town bomb and to inform the town after they are done with their entire job. This in my opinion will leave Mafia + bombers to break their heads. Mafia in no ways going to get town killed without the lynch majority. Wish there was something on the lines of bomb-proof role like doctor for town(like it won't be activated despite bomber trying to activate) instead of town bomb in case we have to guess K9 and protect him.

We will wait for K9 to lead from front in background and town playing the wait game till then, what do you guys think?

I am settling with No Lynch. Though I have doubts on certain posts like I mentioned in last couple of pages where I wasn't really convinced myself, I do not have concrete evidence to call it for sure. Our current situation doesn't call for panic and so yeah,

No Lynch

 

[CerealKiller]

I will back FP's strategy for now.

No Lynch

 

[SiriusBlack]

Day 2

BOOM!!!

The town rushed to the source to see a man lying on the floor, wires tangled over his dangling, lifeless limbs.

Spoiler

zwarrior is dead. He was a mafia bomb.

Not far from him was another man, and it wasn't long before they realized who he was.

Spoiler

CerealKiller is dead. He was a K9 Unit.

It was a dull ending to the day for town, but their prospects remained quite open as the new day began.

It is now Day 3. The lynch votes have been reset.

@Villain @Fake Passport @RUDOLPH @asprin @swacker @zwarrior @PresidentEvil @surendar @CerealKiller

 

[Fake Passport]

Posting from phone so won't be long. Was called away from PC last night, hopfully back this afternoon. So now we have 5T, 1Godfather and 1Mafia Bomb.

The K9 is a sucky loss, but it's not bad.

Unless your confident of a 100% sure scum, we pretty much have to keep up the no lynch. If we lynch now and flip town. We let the second bomb detonate it goes to 4T and 1M.

If we lynch and get it wrong, the mafia bomb can then activate at any time and the effect would be that the situation is worse than 4/1. I suggest the town bomb is better as a player than a bomb from here on out.

Thoughts for later:

• Any post of CK indicate anything about his role
• Anything Zwarrior posted show an interaction link?
• A 3way mafia almost always goes 1x Prolific poster, 1x manipulator and 1x silent type

 

[surendar]

Grrrrrr! zwarrior!! We lost our K9, damn!

But way to look at it - One mafia has been lost. This is still a positive step for us though we have lost K9. Interesting thing that I am still curious which I mentioned in my last "No Lynch" post, i.e. whether CK managed to diffuse any bomb on D1? Going by Simon's day 2 post phrase - " without any incident ", I would assume that there was none diffused as it would be still considered as incident saved by CK.

I would agree on the no-lynch part of @Fake Passport , unless there is concrete evidence of scum - we need to stay up positive putting them(Mafia) further in backfoot.

 

[Fake Passport]

If we lynch now and flip town. We let the second bomb detonate it goes to 4T and 1M.

Incomplete thought there. Im sure you all get what what I was meaning.

 

[surendar]

Thoughts for later:

• Any post of CK indicate anything about his role
• Anything Zwarrior posted show an interaction link?
• A 3way mafia almost always goes 1x Prolific poster, 1x manipulator and 1x silent type

I was going through those posts, below is what I have :

• ZWarrior and CK have both strangely ended day 1 with "Alright lets try FP strategy - No Lynch" way. CK continued the same in Day 2.
• CK has suspected me, you and Rudolph. Me and Rudolph because of AliB's lynch. Most likely he has wasted his diffusing attempt on one of these 3!
• ZW and CK have had some conversations regarding bombs
• ZW has talked about too many bombs
• ZW has replied "Okay" to PE's "lynch everyday" but found it strange when he asked me "Who told there must be lynch everyday ?" - This I found it odd.
• 3 people went for no lynch on Day 2 - Rudolph, myself and CK. FP mentioned on planning for no lynch lot earlier - Not sure why ZW ended up picking CK among the ones who were sure to post no-lynch.

These are just my observation when I was going through their 38 posts on this thread.

 

[asprin]

I think this was more of a blind shot than a calculated one. I've gone through CK's posts and as far as I'm concerned, I couldn't pinpoint a post which would reveal that he had PR. He did do some questioning in the earlier part of the game but I assume that's normal since day 1 usually goes like that.

The loss of K9 means the mafia bomb is in the green. It would have helped us immensely if we could have stretched this to day 4 as I'm sure CK would have role claimed by then. We gotta put every post under the radar now. That's the only way we can find out the godfather.

 

[asprin]

Oh dear! I just realized one more thing. With the K9 gone now, the mafia can easily support the "No lynch" strategy and keep stretching the days as they no longer have to worry about being exposed by the investigator. This means the town bomb, if he strikes gold, would tilt the odds in our favor massively. He is the key now for sure.

 

[zwarrior]

 

[Villain]

Nah. It's related. I didn't make myself clear, I think.

Villain said- I find it very strange of @ surendar to jump on the bandwagon and lynch Alib.

So, I said - Maybe he got to know that no one will get majority hence followed the 'no lynch'.. Meaning, he is following the bandwagon.

Warrior tried to defend @surendar and so did @asprin here:

Yes, he did want to lynch but changed his mind after the replacement. If I was in his place, I would have done the same (not the lynch, but unlynch after the replacement). But your obsession with that single point is kind of giving out the wrong signals. To a bystander, it's looking like you want to force a lynch on surendar.

I'm not saying they're teammates but there must be something. It'd also be pretty dumb if they were trying to defend him being his teammates.