End Game Explosive Mafia - Endgame Mafia (zwarrior, asprin & RUDOLPH)

[Villain]

Just my wild guess: Surendar, Asprin and one of Swacker/Rudolph. Don't judge me for this please as I said just my 'wild guess'.

Waiting for Surendar to answer the questions raised and I'll make my final decision for the day.

 

[zwarrior]

I find it very strange of @surendar to jump on the bandwagon and lynch Alib based on his inactivity. Sounded too eager there.

Maybe he got to know that no one will get majority hence followed the 'no lynch'.

They won't be public help until they are safe enough to claim, I'd be happy with them either being able to say who have been cleared and who is bomb, or taken out all the bombs, or take out 1 mafia bomb then stop etc.

If they claim now, they are dead. The K9 should only claim once atleast 2 bombs are diffused and is confident those two are mafias.
But my question is, once k9 finds out the bomb, can he defuse that later ? Because he might not be clear whether the k9 is town or mafia at that time.

That could happen if they investigated and deactivated a town bomb then themselves take them out

Did not understand ?

but I found few instances of abrupt switch of must lynch everyday to no lynch on day1

Who told there must be lynch everyday ?

But I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt at the moment.

And why is that ?

make the Town Bomb go after someone, at the risk of killing a townie.

How can he make the town bomb go after someone ?

Just my wild guess: Surendar, Asprin and one of Swacker/Rudolph. Don't judge me for this please as I said just my 'wild guess'.

Waiting for Surendar to answer the questions raised and I'll make my final decision for the day.

Any reasons why you named them or just gut feeling?

 

[CerealKiller]

How can he make the town bomb go after someone ?

I never said that he would make the Town Bomb go after someone.

 

[zwarrior]

I never said that he would make the Town Bomb go after someone.

Then what do you mean by "make the Town Bomb go after someone" ? Sorry. I did not understand it.

 

[CerealKiller]

Then what do you mean by "make the Town Bomb go after someone" ? Sorry. I did not understand it.

He said this

I normally don't like to comment on the setup, its kinda on the scummy end of the spectrum for me. So, possibly incriminating myself...

Stats:
Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%

What am I missing? Why would we lynch?
I suppose it depends how valuable you consider the K9 and town bomb, but I suggest, why bother lynching? Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work. If they take out a townie our odds kinda increase dramatically. I propose we let the mafia make the first move, that makes:

Day 1 - 6T / 3M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 2 - 5T / 2M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 3 - 4T / 1M - Mafia have no kill power

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.
Best case scenario, the 2 bombs kill vanilla townies, That leaves a 4/1 game with k9 and bomb...[DOUBLEPOST=1497362526][/DOUBLEPOST]I am predicating that post on the Godfather not having a nightkill though? or is a godfather kill 'normal' and not 'special'?

He is assuming that the Mafia Bombs will go after someone. What if the Mafia stays completely quite, and makes us lose patience, and forces the Town Bomb to go after someone? He never considered this in his analysis.

 

[RUDI]

Just my wild guess: Surendar, Asprin and one of Swacker/Rudolph. Don't judge me for this please as I said just my 'wild guess'.

If your FOS is because I lynched AliB, then you should continue reading all of the posts. Myself & others were unclear about the set-up. Initially before Simon clear things up, I understood that there has to be a lynch per day and that the bomb can only explode before a majority vote has been cast. I unlynched as soon as Simon cleared up my doubts.

 

[swacker]

Just my wild guess: Surendar, Asprin and one of Swacker/Rudolph.

On what basis did you even think I am scummy?[DOUBLEPOST=1497614481][/DOUBLEPOST]

Maybe he got to know that no one will get majority hence followed the 'no lynch'.

It's not even related to the message you quoted.

 

[Villain]

Any reasons why you named them or just gut feeling?

Just my gut feeling.

 

[asprin]

And why is that ?

Because he hasn't given me any reason not to. His posts appear to favor town. Not that it makes him 100% townie but it doesn't make his sus as well.

 

[Villain]

If your FOS is because I lynched AliB, then you should continue reading all of the posts. Myself & others were unclear about the set-up. Initially before Simon clear things up, I understood that there has to be a lynch per day and that the bomb can only explode before a majority vote has been cast. I unlynched as soon as Simon cleared up my doubts.

Fair enough mate and yes it was because you lynched him but I completely missed this point of misinformation regarding the setup.

 

[zwarrior]

It's not even related to the message you quoted.

Nah. It's related. I didn't make myself clear, I think.

Villain said- I find it very strange of @ surendar to jump on the bandwagon and lynch Alib.

So, I said - Maybe he got to know that no one will get majority hence followed the 'no lynch'.. Meaning, he is following the bandwagon.

 

[Villain]

On what basis did you even think I am scummy?

Nothing strong as of now. I just felt you were off the radar playing smart . What do you think town should do today? Your views on Surendar? Thanks.

 

[RUDI]

asprin
PresidentEvil
Fake Passport
zwarrior
swacker
CerealKiller
surendar
Rudolph
Villain

Spoiler: asprin

I was hoping to see some write-up. I guess the last minute change in the setup might have prevented that.

And you wonder why you get killed on night 1

Buy why should we even go for a lynch? I like Passport's idea of playing the waiting game. It might work, it might not work. But at least we can avoid causalities this early in the game.

No benefit of doubt? Maybe perhaps he hasn't been online? That looks too eager to me to be honest.

From what I gathered from the writeup, I think the bomb role goes like this:

Scenario 1

• Let's say "X" is bomb (town or mafia wouldn't matter since same rules apply to both)
• There are 5 players in game, so 3 is needed for majority.
• On a given day, "X" has 2 votes against him.
• Now before a hammer is reached, "X" can use his PR to take out a person with him (this is where the "majority" part comes into picture).
• I think he can also choose to not use his PR but that seems highly unlikely.

Scenario 2

• Let's say "X" is mafia bomb and "Y" is godfather.
• There are 5 players in game, so 3 is needed for majority.
• On a given day, "Y" has 2 votes against him.
• Now before a hammer is reached, "X" can use his PR to take out a person with him so as to sacrifice himself to save the godfather.

Scenario 3

• Let's say "X" is town bomb and "Z" is townie (and X's gut feeling is that Z is townie)
• There are 5 players in game, so 3 is needed for majority.
• On a given day, "Z" has 2 votes against him.
• Now before a hammer is reached, "X" can use his PR to take out a person with him so as to sacrifice himself to save the townie.

Sounds about right?

Yes, a good ploy. Now that the K9 has a different target to investigate, it's advantage town no matter how slight. Personally, I feel the mafia are playing well because as far as I'm concerned, I don't have any real suspect as of yet. There hasn't been any major "spill the beans" moment so it's quite difficult to judge anyone. Might make the K9's job that much harder but I hope he will be able to pick up something that I haven't till now.


I don't really have anything extra to add here other than the fact that I found FP's strategy of "no lynch" to be reasonable.

I did find surendar's last moment switch to be somewhat odd though. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt at the moment.

Well, I've already stated it before. As of now, no one has looked scum to me. There were some posts that might have raised an eyebrow but not convincing enough for me.

Spoiler: PresidentEvil

For some reason, the tag didn't work.
Now I check to see that FakePassport has come up with a strategy of waiting for Mafia to act. But if the mafia take out K9 unit or town bomb, they can just play a safe game to lynch townies each day to win this comprehensively. But again, it will be very difficult as we will be the majority survivors and one right lynch can win us the game.

We must not ignore the fact that K9 unit or town bomb are blind participants. They don't have the identity of us (fellow townies). So there is a risk of town bomb killing one of us if he gets his target wrong.

Let's hope for the best. K9 unit and his investigation should be enough for us to act within day 3. As we will be the reduced no. of players (either townie or mafia might be killed for two days). With two days of investigation and limited players, we can win this easily by day 3 if K9 is alive by then and town bomb takes out a right target on either day 1 or day 2.

So we will have a replacement for Ali. We got to here from the replacement as well. As Rudolph said, there is no use in just waiting for mafia to act. They can only act when the vote counts get to majority.

A lynch everyday is a suitable option in this game. Let's not just lynch a player but lynch a player who will take someone with him. In this way the threat to the town (two acting mafia [bombers]) can be eliminated with the goon without any acting roles remain.

As far as winning condition for townie is concerned, a townie can win even after being killed by mafia but shouldn't be lynched and then must eliminate the threat to them. Please correct me if I'm wrong here...

We can get to know by reading the posts, as simple as that. We do it in every mafia game and we can do it here too...


That is what is mentioned in the opening post? Majority votes and mafia can use their roles? Can mafia just remain silent without acting?Is that not compulsory to bomb someone every day before someone is lynched?

Yeah, we have a risk with that. But if town gets right, it will be a big advantage for us.

No lynch seems fair after reading FP's analysis post. Atleast, we can save a townie by not lynching a wrong target.

No Lynch.

Spoiler: Fake Passport

Heya all and good luck.

First post tip. PresEvil, CK and suerndar are the mafia. Zwarrior and swacker as town aligned PR's.

Game over.

Yes - I'm joking/guessing.

I normally don't like to comment on the setup, its kinda on the scummy end of the spectrum for me. So, possibly incriminating myself...

Stats:
Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

Currently 66% / 33% Town Favor.
1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%

What am I missing? Why would we lynch?
I suppose it depends how valuable you consider the K9 and town bomb, but I suggest, why bother lynching? Lets just keep talking and talking and No Lynching and grind the mafia bombs down until they do some work. If they take out a townie our odds kinda increase dramatically. I propose we let the mafia make the first move, that makes:

Day 1 - 6T / 3M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 2 - 5T / 2M - Assume mafia bombs town.
Day 3 - 4T / 1M - Mafia have no kill power

Worst case scenario, the 2 bombs kill K9 and Town bomb. That leave a 4/1 Vanilla game, thats still pretty good odds with a few days of talking.
Best case scenario, the 2 bombs kill vanilla townies, That leaves a 4/1 game with k9 and bomb...[DOUBLEPOST=1497362526][/DOUBLEPOST]I am predicating that post on the Godfather not having a nightkill though? or is a godfather kill 'normal' and not 'special'?

Then effectively its a standard mafia game with 25% Mafia with no kill ability. That would mean even a mislynch takes it to 3/1, then 2/1, so a couple of opportunities to get it right...

Answers the nightkill question. I *think* the thing here is to No Lynch?

1. Mafia Goon cant kill, bombs can. Look at the stats, the BEST thing IMO for town is for the bombs to strike Day 1 and Day 2. Look at the percentages. Or flip the thought and game out a situation where mafia have bombs late in the game and town has had a couple of mislynches.

2. Goon cant kill. If town follows my lead, well either get the mafia bombs to go off or be modkilled for inactivity. If I was mafia I sure as hell would want the game to get to better than 4/1.

3. Sure - we are all talking. If the days go on for as long as I think, there's going to be plenty of info for town to use later on. In my ideal situation, the mafia bombs go off. The K9 can then investigate the townie that claims to be bomb and confirm it and you will pretty much have a hammer on mafia, but that requires the game to go probably more perfectly than it will.

4. I say we No Lynch, that is not the same as doing nothing, see (3)

So atm, I have CK and surendar as anti town
Assuming im right, someone else run the numbers....

You are free to FOS me, I don't think I'm going to change your mind, ill let others weigh in on the numbers and strategy though [DOUBLEPOST=1497367820][/DOUBLEPOST]Well, for the time being at least...

Your kinda making my point by framing me saying the opposite that I am. You paint a picture where you, as town bomber, mis-bomb. I'm agreeing with you, Im saying exactly that, why would we bomb at the moment!? Were better off forcing the mafia to drop their bombs first!

If we don't lynch, there's a bigger pool of players and the chance that they hit a PR is as minimized as it possibly can be, but even so, we force them to off 2/3rds of the mafia and all their kill roles and were sitting pretty....

Anyway, I'm off to sleep. Putting money where my mouth is:
No Lynch

@zwarrior - I was going to multiquote, but that would be too long a post. But just on each point

• The loss of the 2 vanilla townies is the best case in context of my plan, well, short of the mafia bomb taking out the godfather
• It was a very soft FOS on CK, mainly because of the '3 bombs' post, I was hoping for a reaction more than anything.
• The smiley was meant to imply a lighthearted statement, didn't bold FOS or anything. It was mainly a reference to my first game post where I called them. Acknowledge we need to hear from everyone before actually forming actual opinions

The other consideration is that the town bomb also dies. So not only do they have to nail the right person, you have to consider that the town also loses a player. In my mind the risk of knocking out a townie means I think, either way, its almost too dangerous to do absent a very obvious scum tell, the use of the bomb is going to have to be perfect. Hence my suggestion if he lives hes almost more valuable as a player when it gets to 4/1.

It's a giveaway now. But I would think the mafia, if they sensed a scum was going to be lynched, would use a bomb to prevent the lynch, especially if the target of the lynch was a bomb themselves.

They loose someone but take a townie with them.

Obviously it would be risky on their part as it could be too obvious ifbtown was about to lynch godfather but it's something we need to consider.

Rest of quote omitted for brevity.

The way I read it is that it is up to the bombs themselves when to detonate. I think what Simon was getting at is it has to happen before the lynch hammer. I think in other games Ive seen it's been called a suicide bomber...

Afaik it's a first time setup

Don't fall for this people, read back and you will see he asked me a question which all I did was reply. You can bet if I ignored the question he'd be calling for my head aswell

Also, how is advocating for no lynch scummy behaviour? Especially day 1?
Scum have no night kill, they have the ability to kill 2 people with their bombs. Mafia sure as hell need us to lynch...

You don't like the idea.of no lynching, ok people entitled to their opinions. But you should state why. What is your plan? Why is no lynch a bad option?

Emphasis added.

To me, what you say in the bold is dichotomous. Do you think it happens before tge majority or after? Scumslip?



Plus I went for No Lynch. Accident or deliberate?

Why do you think the bombs can only act when the votecount gets to majority? To me the opening post is very much saying that they have to act anytime before it gets to majority?
Also, if the town lynches and gets it wrong. Day 2 becomes 5 T and 3 M. Obviously not the end of the game with the PR's, but your opening Day 2 with the ability for the mafia to hammer a town as soon as they get together...

I'm about to PM Simon with questions about the bombs role. There isnt a rule against it, but since its convention not to copy/paste replies ill fudge it a bit but anyway...

Ok, I am paraphrasing here. But the following is what resulted from the questions.

• It is completely up to the bombs when they activate.
• The bombs are able to take out any target in the town.
• The bombs can not activate when there is a Lynch hammer, they must wait until the next day
• Aside from that, they are under no restriction as to what time they activate.

@Simon - Fair interpretation?

The bomb can decide to explode at any time, EXCEPT once there is a majority for lynch.

So think of it as either there is 1 death via lynch, or 2 deaths via a bomb in a day. Either action ends the day.

It's a couple posts apart, but I said I would send Simon some questions via PM (per the rules). What I posted are the answer to those questions from Simon.

They are my words, as directly quoting PM is against the rules, but they represent what Simon said.[DOUBLEPOST=1497505602][/DOUBLEPOST]

Well, if we hammer a mafia bomb they are removed from the game and can't activate.

BUT the proper gist is that a lynch hammer means the mafia bombs can't activate themselves until the next Day. You can't have a lynch and a bomb in same day.

It's the hammer broadly, we lynch a vanilla townie, godfather, bomb or k9 that is what prevents the bombs activating that day.

Simons answers should help people and clears up some stuff. Im going into tea/baths/bed etc for the kids soon. I don't think I'll say anything new, but I'll make 1 cohesive post tonight outlining why I think we should play the game the way I'm advocating for. Give me a few hours.

Yes my long lost son!

Yes my long lost son!

1 x Mafia Godfather
2 x Mafia Bombs

1 x Town Bomb
1 x k9 unit
4x Vanilla Townies.

Now looking at stats, these are all valid Day 1:
They are percentage of players by team that will be left for the given action.

No Lynch 66% / 33% Town Favor.
Lynch (Flips town) 62.5% / 37.5%
Lynch (Flips scum) 75% / 25% (would mafia let this happen?)

1 Mafia Bombs Town (5T 2M) 71% / 29%
1 Town bombs town (4T/3M) 57% / 43%
1 Town bombs scum (5T/2M) 71% / 29%

What I am advocating for, is that initially at least, townies don't lynch. Make the mafia do it first. We just keep talking and reading people, building our assessments. Absent a definite scum read wear them down so that a scum bomb goes off.
We're essentially creating a siege. Its unconventional sure, but it will work.

The unknown in that so far is the K9 unit. At this stage the trouble with the K9 unit is that they only have a 3 in 11 chance of hitting a bomb, and then if they decide to deactivate, they have a 33% chance of hitting town. I also doubt they will claim at this point since it opens them up to being a bomb victim and town losing its main PR role.

Plus I suggest, even if we lynched and hit a mafia then either;
1. If its the godfather, they may let him fall on his sword at this point, or a bomb will activate anyway.
2. If its a bomb, they are going to take someone out before the hammer, since there is no disadvantage for them to do so.

So the only thing that is advantageous to town in terms of pure numbers, is the least likely thing to get right and happen. Hence I posit that at this stage, given the odds, the risk of losing a townie without return is too great.

Do whats right for the town. No Lynch!

@RUDOLPH and @surendar - And anyone else confused. The rules on the front page indicate to get in touch with Simon if you have any questions about the role. I PM'd him and he got back to me quickly and seemingly was happy to answer them. Unless of course your claiming lack of understanding because your scum, then keep up the good work trying to cause confusion.

Rudi - you feel any differently about the policy now?
Surendar - I apologise if I havent been articulate, I swear my thoughts make sense in my head. Any questions for me?

@Simon - Is the K9 unit revealed in any way to the mafia upon a deactivation?

Awesome!

Now, if they aren't already, I suggest the K9 be investigating their percieved scummiest and deactivate them. Hopfully their read of the town will skew the possibility of hitting a mafia bomb first. Hopefully also if they hit mafia bombs if they survive their investigations will help out deciding who is the godfather when/if they can claim.

Looking forward to hearing @Villain reads on everything. I'm probably biased, but will post my reads on people tonight.

They won't be public help until they are safe enough to claim, I'd be happy with them either being able to say who have been cleared and who is bomb, or taken out all the bombs, or take out 1 mafia bomb then stop etc.

Pretty much as long as they don't take out the town bomb and stop well be ahead. That could happen if they investigated and deactivated a town bomb then themselves take them out, pretty unlikely imo.

Plus if they survive and post their investigations, it *may* out the godfather depending on their read of the town. It might not be classically useful, but the K9 is still a very powerful townie.

The ball is in the mafias court. They either use the bombs and get to 4-1 vanilla, or they hold tight and the game goes to 6-3 either vanilla or bombs in play, either way with the K9 having a very powerful advantage...

And FtR - I'm planning on No Lynching again, but want to give time for discussion and K9 to get investigation done.

The 4-1 vanilla is worst case. If the mafia use their 2 bombs to take out the town bomb and k9 then it becomes a straight 4-1 as there would be no power roles left.

As it stands, they have 6 targets. The chance of hitting the town bomb is 17%. If they use a bomb and don't hit, the second bomb would have a chance of 20% of taking out the town bomb.

But in some ways id rather them take out the bomb than the K9. The fact we lose the bomb aswell as the target I think offsets the power. The bomb is more valuable as a vanilla player even now than as a bomb. When we get to the stage of having to lynch the godfather having that extra player is an extra day we can get it wrong.

Although, it is possible for the town bomb and the mafia to remain on last day which would be pretty funny...

But, we need to stimulate discussion about the game for scum hunting purposes. I'll ask everyone a few questions (and feel free to ask a few of me - but I want others to get in first, Ive talked enough)

@CerealKiller - You were against the no lynch, floating ideas like '3 bombs' and FOS'd me for advocating what I did. You were then very quick and very quiet to join the no lynch crowd which looked a little wishy washy.

1. How can you justify a fos on me when I was advocating helping the town?

2. You found my anticipating of mafia tactics scummy. What about it is scummy? What section made you think I had too much info?

3. Gun to head impression. Who are your top 3 scum reads?

@surendar
1. What about the original role descriptions Simon posted and/or what statements I made confused you as to the role and rules of the bombs?

2. I posted that I was going to PM Simon and ask questions, you later posted you were confused about where I got them. Any explanation?

3. You seemed desperate to not do the no lynch thing, now it's 'the safe option'. What was posted that changed your mind?

4. Who is your top 3 scum team at the moment?

Everyone else. What is your gun to head type read of the game? Who's in your scum team?

Shucks, that took long @Fake Passport or someone else can do the rest.

Interesting: Whilst doing this I've noticed that @PresidentEvil has managed to stay nicely under the radar.

 

[Villain]

Because he hasn't given me any reason not to. His posts appear to favor town. Not that it makes him 100% townie but it doesn't make his sus as well.

How does lynching someone without thinking works in the favour of town?

 

[asprin]

How does lynching someone without thinking works in the favour of town?

Who are you referring to here?