Puddle Mafia 03 - Endgame

[thedon5]

Equally likely though that the person pointed out in the writeup was the doc

Exactly, so it looks unlikely that Zhuorb would know that he got investigated from the write up.

there's a cop not mentioned who got a positive result.

Yes, obviously there is a chance, but how would Zhuorb know this?

I don't think he said anywhere he believes he was investigated?

Zhuorb said he claimed specifically since he thought he was investigated last night.

 

[Varun]

Zhuorb said he claimed specifically since he thought he was investigated last night.

Can you point it out please? I didn't see it anywhere.

How do you know this (sorry, might just be my noobness)?

Just saying that it may be a possibility. Not that it is definitely true (actually, a 'that' should come before 'there's a cop', guess I forgot it).

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Don't edit your posts.

 

[thedon5]

I misread your post, so obviously had to edit. Thought I did it before anyone read.

 

[Varun]

Yes, obviously there is a chance, but how would Zhuorb know this?

The write-up suggested that there may be a cop, and that if there was one, they received a negative result. So there was no real way that Zhuorb could deduce that he was investigated last night. Even though he believes he was investigated.

You said this, and I was listing the other possibility. Either way Zhuorb wouldn't know if he was investigated.

 

[thedon5]

I claimed because I'm pretty sure the cop will investigate me tonight.

Ah OK, apologies, I think I missed the will when I first read it. So I thought for a bit that Zhuorb thought he was investigated last night.

 

[BKB1991]

Clearly it's better to lynch someone who is suspected mafia rather than confirmed 3rd party. My problem is that "this is just the way Zhuorb plays". I'm then looking at you and Abhas wondering why you're quite so keen to press for the lynch.
I actually happen to believe his miller claim; it would take a very ballsy mafia to claim miller under no real pressure when he might be CCed. To me he's a townie playing poorly. I was watching to see who came along and tried to railroad the lynch.
We've got lynches from you and Abhas and an FOS from Sedition. I don't think any of you believe he's mafia.
I also don't believe that three experienced players would just fall in behind such a weak lynch unless you had ulterior motives.

Unlynch: Zhuorb
FOS: Varun, Abhas and Sedition.

Exactly what I was thinking Colin. Knowing how Zhuorb plays its just so easy to lynch him when hes done something slightly wrong. And when everyone seems to be going at one guy, 9/10 it means we are going after a townie.

 

[thedon5]

Yeah I agree with that too.

 

[Sedition]

I've been looking in Zhuorb's direction specifically because he was one of the few advocating no lynch on the Survivor, and was the least convincing with his reasons for doing so. Wtf is up with "Oh we'll lynch him tomorrow if we have nothing"? We had nothing yesterday, so why not just lynch him then and there and remove all doubt? Doesn't make sense to me at all, unless he's mafia and wants to keep a potentially volatile role around for as long as possible.

Since then he hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. Claiming an insignificant role and narrowing down the mafia's targets when under very little pressure is a terrible play if he's somehow town. Now it's confirmed that we'll get guilty on him no matter what, so unless a tracker or watcher can catch him in the act, we've got no way to confirm.

I'm prepared to put my lynch down on Zhuorb today because he's looking the most obvious so far. If everyone's just going to follow Barmy, then it looks doubtful that we'll go through with that one too.

 

[Manly]

I'll be the first to admit I posted this on my phone whilst having a ----, but there's something troubling me....:

I'm still not convinced User isn't at least a SK... I'd be more inclined to put some more pressure on him and see if he lets something slip; if I were in his shoes I'd also lie low for the night, as a second death would have been the nail in his coffin, so to speak.


Aside from that, the claim of Miller so early obvious does us more harm than good, and for that reason I'd be inclined to Lynch Zhuorb off.
Any thoughts anyone? Let's see if I can survive Night this time!

To which BKB put this:

Since the two people we are looking at Zhuorb and Aditya I will give you my views on them.

Aditya - Pretty straightforward normal game so far. But when he is usually mafia, he does tend to over defend himself, which he sort of did this time around cant be sure.

Zhuorb - tbh I can understand why Zhuorb claimed miller, he knew he isnt good at defending himself and the pressure is just going to pile on him. Claiming his role now then claiming when hes under the hammer. Although I think hes a miller, his death will clear out the existence of a cop.

Since most of you guys have got Zhuorb locked out, I will lynch: Aditya to explore another angle and ensure the discussion isnt one-sided. Not convinced on any of them just yet

I asked about User, still, and you've thrown a view about Aditya down? Just makes me think that User could be mafia and you're a team mate!

Care to explain yourself, young Padawan?

 

[barmyarmy]

Since then he hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. Claiming an insignificant role and narrowing down the mafia's targets when under very little pressure is a terrible play if he's somehow town. Now it's confirmed that we'll get guilty on him no matter what, so unless a tracker or watcher can catch him in the act, we've got no way to confirm.

This bothers me. It's terrible play as town; it's even worse play as mafia. I have never seen a mafia player pull out a claim that might be CCed with just one lynch on him. Mafia players sit tight. I gave a weak reason to lynch and waited to see who would follow.

I'm prepared to put my lynch down on Zhuorb today because he's looking the most obvious so far. If everyone's just going to follow Barmy, then it looks doubtful that we'll go through with that one too.

You haven't actually explained why lynching Zhuorb is a good idea. I agreed with you on User on day 1 but lynching someone "just to make sure" isn't town play.

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@Manly - what are your views on Zhuorb right now? Have they changed?

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Exactly what I was thinking Colin. Knowing how Zhuorb plays its just so easy to lynch him when hes done something slightly wrong. And when everyone seems to be going at one guy, 9/10 it means we are going after a townie.

What I look for is when people who are normally careful about lynching and give good reasons suddenly start agreeing with flimsy ones.

 

[Manly]

I think this User line of inquiry I'm leading is a more interesting prospect, especially after BKB's post in reply to me. I just get the feeling there's something more to it.

Zhuorb's made his bed, it's just whether someone forces him to lie in it, really. If he is a miller, he stitched us up by claiming so early and without pressure, and we'll be backs against the wall already; if he's mafia more's the better for us but I'd be more tentative lynching him just now.

 

[barmyarmy]

You're basing that on the assumption that User2010, who claimed as 3rd party on day 1, is actually mafia. Seeing as we know there is an indiv/SK from the write-up I don't follow that.
If you were trying to lynch him on the grounds that he's an SK I could understand it but not that him and BKB are mafia buddies.

 

[Varun]

Colin, the only flaw in your reasoning is that you've assumed Zhuorb to be innocent, while this may not actually be the case. Not saying he's definitely mafia, but I can't be assured he's town either. That's why I need to pressurize him (and why not do it while we still have time?) and if the defense elicited is satisfactory, I'm not going to lynch him at all.

 

[Manly]

You're basing that on the assumption that User2010, who claimed as 3rd party on day 1, is actually mafia. Seeing as we know there is an indiv/SK from the write-up I don't follow that.
If you were trying to lynch him on the grounds that he's an SK I could understand it but not that him and BKB are mafia buddies.

Goddamn it. I'll cease said line.

UNLESS! What if there's 2 individuals? Maybe even a masonry? Or a cult that can't recruit? Essentially a third team looking to win?


Consider the straws well and truly clutched-at.

 

[Sedition]

This bothers me. It's terrible play as town; it's even worse play as mafia. I have never seen a mafia player pull out a claim that might be CCed with just one lynch on him. Mafia players sit tight. I gave a weak reason to lynch and waited to see who would follow.



You haven't actually explained why lynching Zhuorb is a good idea. I agreed with you on User on day 1 but lynching someone "just to make sure" isn't town play.

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@Manly - what are your views on Zhuorb right now? Have they changed?

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What I look for is when people who are normally careful about lynching and give good reasons suddenly start agreeing with flimsy ones.

Maybe he figured worst case scenario the actual miller counterclaims and they're one step closer to finding the PRs. Would make more sense to claim something like doc and draw the actual doc out, but if he perhaps thought I already had a guilty on him, like the time I went after Yudi from the outset in the hopes of not having to claim cop.

The thing that aggravated me is you implied that I was following your weak reason for the lynch, when I have been gunning for Zhuorb since his comment about not lynching the survivor on day 1, but we can do it on day 2 if we have nothing else. Since then, things aren't adding up.. if it quacks like a duck etc.