Puddle Mafia 03 - Endgame

[barmyarmy]

The reason why I put him under the lynch was simple, I felt he was investigated by one of the people who were suspicious of him.. This was substantiated by the fact that in my analysis of the game so far, I had placed one of those persons down as cop. His claim of Miller instantly led me to believe he was investigated, and I lynched him. I haven't had the chance to read the thread very thoroughly due to a very busy schedule, and forgot to relate the writeup with it.
Reading though it again however I feel indeed he might be miller, and I got my analysis wrong in the first place.
Unlynch: Zhuorb

Only just read this. Can't recall it ever happening before...

 

[Aditya]

Yea, that answers my question, at least when you are a miller. Perhaps it is better to role claim under no pressure but that doesn't apply when you have a important role, does it? I mean, a cop claiming without any pressure would make no sense, would it!

I've failed to understand all throughout this game, about why I've been consistently under pressure but whatever, I'd still persist with the idea of being cool rather than over defensive. I'd be going offline in about a few minutes. If more of you feel I shall role claim, I'd do so tomorrow afternoon (IST).

 

[barmyarmy]

Warning - Do not attempt to read through this unless you have sufficient time

Love it.

I can't say if I'm paranoid, though. I personally don't believe I am. I'm just trying to play the game the way I can.

Just to say that that was referring to Aditya not you.

 

[Abhas]

I don't know if I can recall a situation where mafia might have fake-claimed with little votes, but like I said, ever since the BKB thing, I've always been apprehensive of millers claiming and referencing cops in the same post.
Any mafia claiming miller would be due to the guilty conscience they are carrying. BKB "thought" I was the cop and I had investigated him when I was gunning for him, while it was neither.
I felt the exact same in zhuorb's post. Under a series of FOS and lynches, he claimed miller, and at the same time he mentioned the existence of a cop. This led me to believe he might actually be mafia.

 

[barmyarmy]

Yea, that answers my question, at least when you are a miller. Perhaps it is better to role claim under no pressure but that doesn't apply when you have a important role, does it? I mean, a cop claiming without any pressure would make no sense, would it!

I've failed to understand all throughout this game, about why I've been consistently under pressure but whatever, I'd still persist with the idea of being cool rather than over defensive. I'd be going offline in about a few minutes. If more of you feel I shall role claim, I'd do so tomorrow afternoon (IST).

You're two votes from the hammer and talking about going offline for a while. Risky if you ask me...

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ETA: not that you should have to stay up all night to avoid being lynched!

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I felt the exact same in zhuorb's post. Under a series of FOS and lynches, he claimed miller, and at the same time he mentioned the existence of a cop. This led me to believe he might actually be mafia.

He claimed it before the FOSes and lynches. That's important.

 

[Abhas]

Only just read this. Can't recall it ever happening before...

I'm human, you know

 

[barmyarmy]

I'm still suspicious of Aditya but, in the interests of getting this game moving, lynch: Zhuorb.

@Abhas - I posted this and he claimed.

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I'm human, you know

Not dancer?

 

[Abhas]

Yeah I'm hesitant to potentially waste a day on a lynch we probably should have made yesterday. While the chances of User being mafia are low, we're at least certain that he's not town. If it turns out that there is a SK on the loose and it's not User, we can't just lynch him off then either. I can't believe we let him survive Day 1 honestly But for now we can't compound the error, so moving on somewhat..

My suspicions were mostly on BKB and Zhuorb on Day 1 for being uncertain on the lynch, but looking back BKB is more active than I expect him to be when mafia. That leaves Zhuorb and a couple of posts that have caught my eye:



I don't really understand this reasoning. Seems like a delay tactic, help User get through Day 1 and waste Day 2 lynching him, or help him get through again.



Any time there's a significant delay in getting through the night phase, I generally blame inactive/new players for not submitting their role. It could be that he has a mafia role, but in the past the mafia team has been able to submit it.

Since it's been obvious that he's needed replacing, I don't understand why you'd be so quick to go after him today when Manly's pretty much ready to come back in.

And then there's still 1 player we've got absolutely nothing on. Nothing from Mark on Day 1, and while it's thedon's first game and he's still trying to figure the game out, we can't just let him fly under the radar for a few days.

Okay, I was not wanting to name, but for the sake of clarification, and considering now that I believe I may have been incorrect in my deduction, here's the thing:
I felt Sedition might be the cop, and this post of his might be a subtle hint that he's cop, and he's suspicious of him due to his investigation.
If someone comes gunning for a guy straightaway, it is a clear giveaway that he might have something about him.

This, along with your lynch might have put Zhuorb under some pressure since you two are influential players, and analytical too.

It was this post, coupled with yours and his claim which felt like a bit of guilty conscience involved.

 

[puddleduck]

Vote Count

User2010 (1) - Aditya
Aditya (4) - thedon, User, BKB, Manly

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Cheers Abhas

 

[thedon5]

What is that supposed to mean? If you agree with that, doesn't it mean that you think I am town? Didn't you mention that I am mafia?

No, I thought that some things didn't quite add up with your claim. After thinking it through though, I've decided that you are more likely town.

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Yea, that answers my question, at least when you are a miller. Perhaps it is better to role claim under no pressure but that doesn't apply when you have a important role, does it? I mean, a cop claiming without any pressure would make no sense, would it!

I've failed to understand all throughout this game, about why I've been consistently under pressure but whatever, I'd still persist with the idea of being cool rather than over defensive. I'd be going offline in about a few minutes. If more of you feel I shall role claim, I'd do so tomorrow afternoon (IST).

Yeah I feel you should claim.

 

[Varun]

Well, I still smell something fishy with the Zhuorb situation, but for now Unlynch: Zhuorb.

Aditya with each of his recent post has seemed town to me, so I'm not sure who to lynch now. User?

 

[ved_]

It's afternoon, I believe Aditya will be online and say something in his defense.

What is fishy about it, Varun?

 

[Aditya]

Yes, I'm online.

Role claims so far:-
1. Barmy
2. Pallu (replaced by Manly)
3. Manly - Killed Night 1 (DV)
4. Sedition
5. Zhuorb - Miller
6. User - Survivor
7. theDon
8. BKB
9. Varun
10. Abhas
11. Aditya

I've got 4 votes on me : the don, User, BKB and Manly are the ones who have placed a lynch on me. I can understand User's lynch, though I seriously fail to understand the rest 3 lynches. BKB while lynching me posted that I am very over defensive when I'm mafia or something like that and lynched me. However, I asked him this and I didn't get a reply from him, does he really think I've been over defensive in this game!

thedon, I've no idea why lynched me while he had mentioned he is not happy with Zhourb's role claim. here. Now, explain me if you will, why am I being targeted for nothing? Absolutely nothing. However, he does get the benefit of the doubt here simply because he is a noob at mafia games.

Coming to Manly, his lynch on me is the most weird. here. I already had 3 lynches on me and putting another lynch on me, cannot by any stretch of mind be called "gentle pressure".

Someone mentioned a few posts back, that if we're going to have a role claim from a townie it will obviously be a important one. So, this is to all the townies, if you want me to claim, I will but just think about it one more time, how you all are benefiting the mafia's. They are obviously succeeding in getting claims from us and we are allowing them to do so. TBH, mafia's are clearly being aggressive here and it's getting paid off. Another claim here and they already have 3 claims. That is, if we are believing User and Zhourb, which we are or else why wouldn't we lynch them!

 

[Sedition]

No mafia player is going to claim miller to try and draw the real one out...

Pretty weird interpretation of what I said Or are you twisting my words on purpose?

Obviously he's not going to claim Miller in the hopes that the real one CCs. What I'm saying is if he thought me, you or Varun already had a guilty on him (we were suspicious of him before the claim also, just because it wasn't a bolded FOS, doesn't mean anything, pressure is pressure), then he needs to explain the guilty, so straight away Miller is a good claim.

If we didn't actually have a result, then the claim makes it pointless to investigate him from here on out anyway. Then the only worry for him now is, is there actually a Miller that can CC?

If someone did CC, then at least it wasn't all for nothing, as one less potential target for the mafia is revealed. It would come at a cost, but with the three of us already on him, maybe he thought he was toast already.

Anyway if we're going to give another scummy player that claims early and narrows down the mafia's list if true a free pass, then so be it.

If User and Zhuorb are somehow both telling the truth then that leaves a bunch of mafia amongst Aditya, Barmy, Manly, Abhas, BKB, thedon and Varun.

Aditya's facing a lot of heat and admittedly I haven't seen much there, but his delaying of the claim when so close to the hammer is pretty suspicious.

Barmy's agreeing with me early on and then twisting my words and accusing me of following a weak lynch when I was the one pointing Zhuorb out the whole time is pretty weird.

Manly's a little bit all over the place, but too early with his new role to know. I know my view of Smurf last game was a bit skewed when he rejoined since he was confirmed town previously, so have to be wary of that.

Abhas was another one advocating no lynch on User on Day 1 and has been flying under the radar a bit. Only the second time we've played together and last game I thought he was mafia when town, so it's hard to get a read on him.

BKB was very much on the fence regarding the possible survivor and that made me suspicious, but his posts give me town vibes and is more active than he was as mafia in a previous game.

Thedon's another tricky one to read since he came in late and it's his first game. Something doesn't feel quite right with his lynches though, but maybe I'm just paranoid of letting a new player have a free pass for too long.

and finally Varun. Another one in the no lynch pile. His stance last game as mafia was to lynch the survivor on day 1, though he never actually put a lynch down. So far though his posts have been more townlike than that game.

So in weighing all that up, I feel there must be a mafia amongst:

FOS: Aditya, Barmy & thedon

 

[Varun]

I don't know exactly, but I'm still not convinced. Suspicion has damped down, but not completely sure you're town. Something tells me there is something tricky going on, especially with Colin.

I also have a few logical arguments, but I'm not clear on them myself, so no point stating them.