Puddle Mafia 03 - Endgame

Are you trying to confuse us Manly? Cause I was never really replying to you, just stating what I was thinking on two scummy players at that point.

My gut tells me Zhuorb is telling the truth. Its always tough to know when to claim when you are a miller, so I think it makes more sense for him to claim now, then when hes votes away from the hammer.
 
That's where I got confused and led myself down that long dead end haha. Sorry chaps!
 
Maybe he figured worst case scenario the actual miller counterclaims and they're one step closer to finding the PRs. Would make more sense to claim something like doc and draw the actual doc out, but if he perhaps thought I already had a guilty on him, like the time I went after Yudi from the outset in the hopes of not having to claim cop.

As you said if you really giving up on the game and deciding to get lynched you would obviously claim cop or doc to try and get a counter-claim. Miller? :D

The thing that aggravated me is you implied that I was following your weak reason for the lynch, when I have been gunning for Zhuorb since his comment about not lynching the survivor on day 1, but we can do it on day 2 if we have nothing else. Since then, things aren't adding up.. if it quacks like a duck etc.

You FOSed him after his claim. My assertion is that were you town you'd have weighed his claim more carefully before getting behind the lynch.
 
As I said, he may have thought one of me, you or Varun already had a guilty result on him since he became the focus early in the day before he claimed. I've attempted to get a guilty party lynched without having to claim before, and I'm sure most would try to approach it that way too.

Worst case, the actual Miller claims and there's one less night target. I don't see it as giving up, just taking a risk that will pay off if there's no miller and only a watcher or tracker might catch you.

My FOS was reinforcing everything I've been saying since his comments on lynching the possible survivor, nothing to do with your reasons, which have generally been the same as mine anyway.
 
The reason why I put him under the lynch was simple, I felt he was investigated by one of the people who were suspicious of him.. This was substantiated by the fact that in my analysis of the game so far, I had placed one of those persons down as cop. His claim of Miller instantly led me to believe he was investigated, and I lynched him. I haven't had the chance to read the thread very thoroughly due to a very busy schedule, and forgot to relate the writeup with it.
Reading though it again however I feel indeed he might be miller, and I got my analysis wrong in the first place.
Unlynch: Zhuorb
 
Vote Count

User2010 (1) - Aditya
Zhuorb (1) - Barmyarmy
Aditya (3) - thedon, User, BKB

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
 
At risk of sounding like Axl Rose, where do we go now?


We're believing the miller claim, and my User suspicion has come to nothing (unless there's a double kill overnight) so who is next?
 
To add, as a personal thing, ever since the saga with BKB in one of the earlier games, I've always looked at the miller with a reasonable element of doubt. In fact, in my head he is always leaning mafia.
also, I don't remember playing with Zhuorb before, and I havnt followed the games where he's played, so I have nothing to judge his posts on. From a neutral perspective, it did look quite scummy to me the way he claimed.
 
Just seen the vote count so I'm going to apply some gentle pressure:

Lynch: Aditya
 
Colin, if you don't mind me asking, in one of the earlier games when you claimed miller on day 1, why did you role claim on the very first day?

If you ask me, I'm not certain about Zhourb's innocence, I've mentioned earlier why. Zhourb, however is indeed a player who if is lying, can be caught very easily due to perhaps his very aggressive play. Having said that, if I see the possibility that Zhourb might be lying here about his role claim, I'd actually have trouble believing it. Simply because he was in no pressure to claim and hence false role claiming at that situation would've been stupid. So, it does in some way clear him out but of course he's not absolutely clear but then no one is.

My claim is suspicious now..

Tbvh, lynching me now will be foolish on town's part. You have lost a DV and now wasting a lynch me wouldn't be a wise call. I have nothing against you, Aditya. My role is such I don't care whoever stays alive as long as I survive and 1 of the sides win. So, as I have been saying, town can usey vote to their benefit. Apllies only if you are town though..

So, what you're applying here is that, you don't give a damn about whether or not I'm a townie and still, you are saying all along that you might be helpful for us perhaps later in the game. How so, when we wont even have any chances of winning because you'd blindly lynch townies. We can use your role to benefit. Yes. Mafia's can do that too. Why should we reach the point where you can simply take away town's chances of winning. TBH, as a townie, I fear your moves. You cant be trusted and the way you are going about the game, there are more chances of you being dangerous to the town than mafia.
 
Vote Count

User2010 (1) - Aditya
Zhuorb (1) - Barmyarmy
Aditya (4) - thedon, User, BKB, Manly

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
 
If we are smart enough, we can look at a trend based on User's votes. If the mafia are trying to cash in on his vote, they are likely to follow his vote in a tight situation.
On the other hand, if User is bandwagoning, we might be able to see a trend in that vote as well.

I'm not sure if he is a pure survivor though. I do feel there is something more to his role. I reckon he might be an individual with a role, not necessarily a SK. We've seen a JOAT as an individual before, so that's a possibility.
The writeup suggesting the individual intrigues me. Surely, it can't be "successful" just for surviving the day. He would be actually successful if he survives the game. It definitely has to be something to do with a night action he might have completed.

I think we might need a few answers, or atleast a little more insight into it.
Lynch: User

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Puddle, I think Barmyarmy unlynched Zhuorb.
 
Colin, if you don't mind me asking, in one of the earlier games when you claimed miller on day 1, why did you role claim on the very first day?

In retrospect to save my own skin rather than help the town. If you are going to claim better to do so with no pressure on you imo. That's one of the reasons I feel that Zhuorb is town.

If you ask me, I'm not certain about Zhourb's innocence, I've mentioned earlier why. Zhourb, however is indeed a player who if is lying, can be caught very easily due to perhaps his very aggressive play. Having said that, if I see the possibility that Zhourb might be lying here about his role claim, I'd actually have trouble believing it. Simply because he was in no pressure to claim and hence false role claiming at that situation would've been stupid. So, it does in some way clear him out but of course he's not absolutely clear but then no one is.

That's the key part for me.

You're only two votes off the hammer Adi. You might have to claim here tbh. I certainly believe that you could be mafia but I'm not going to lynch you at this point.

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To add, as a personal thing, ever since the saga with BKB in one of the earlier games, I've always looked at the miller with a reasonable element of doubt. In fact, in my head he is always leaning mafia.
also, I don't remember playing with Zhuorb before, and I havnt followed the games where he's played, so I have nothing to judge his posts on. From a neutral perspective, it did look quite scummy to me the way he claimed.

I'm surprised you're still saying this after the last page of discussion. Can you recall a situation where a mafia has fake-claimed a role that might be in the game whilst only having one lynch on them?

Also @PD - Abhas is right. I did unlynch.

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At risk of sounding like Axl Rose, where do we go now?


We're believing the miller claim, and my User suspicion has come to nothing (unless there's a double kill overnight) so who is next?

I think we might have to have a claim from Aditya. Mind you if he's town he's either going to claim a power-role or narrow down the field for the mafia.

In terms of where to go next, I've currently got no read on you or TheDon. I could well be missing either of you as a mafia. Other than that I have:
BKB - leaning town
Aditya - potentially scummy
Zhuorb - probably town
User2010 - 3rd party. Could be SK
sedition - potentially scummy
Varun - leaning mafia
Abhas - slight leaning mafia. Always very hard to tell.
 
Warning - Do not attempt to read through this unless you have sufficient time
:facepalm

Alright, I seriously can't take this any more. Go with your gut feeling guys, I've lynched User and no one else apart from Zhourb (has done anything at all suspicious).

Sounds like you got really annoyed and gave up at that point of time, Aditya.

Since when Miller became a tricky role?

Miller is tricky because you're in a fix if the cop investigates you. I saw this coming, with the way I was trying to play, and my miller claim justifies my play. It allows the cop to confirm me as miller, so if I am guilty, I am clear.

This bothers me a bit. Why do you think you were an obvious target to be investigated? How do you know you haven't been investigated already?

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Basically I post sense. You can be a very paranoid townie so always difficult to tell which side you're on.

If I was investigated already, I believe the cop would have claimed, because that is what I would do. It is okay to sacrifice yourself for a mafia, but I thought that the cop has not claimed yet, so I should go ahead and claim just to have this to say, because I'm really sure that everyone will just sheep onto the cop's guilty.
I can't say if I'm paranoid, though. I personally don't believe I am. I'm just trying to play the game the way I can.

Sorry guys I was out for most of the day..
Not really sure about the Aditya thing, but I'm not pleased with Zhuorb's claim of miller. Firstly, he's claimed it under no pressure, but intense suspicion. Maybe he thought he was investigated, and being mafia, instantly thought best to claim miller.
If indeed he is the miller though, there was absolutely no need to claim at this point of time. It just gives the mafia a clear run at their targets, the people with power roles.
Out of 11, 1 has been killed, 2 have revealed their roles, and with probably 3 mafia, it makes us 5 remaining with hidden roles. In the writeups, there are clearly atleast 3 roles mentioned, making it much easier for the mafia to decipher the people with the roles.

That said, I believe he might be mafia, and I'd like to place a lynch on him to get more insights..
Lynch: Zhuorb

Oh and great to see thedon and Manly filling up for the inactive positions!
So, do you really believe, that if I was mafia I'd go and claim miller? Bring up attention on myself? That would definitely mean more lynches and in the end a hammer. I'd rather not want that, would you?
Why was it not required? The way I see it, claiming right now would actually help me later on, if (and when) the cop investigates me, I'd have this as an alibi.

I'm not sure convinced at all by Zhuorb's claim. I'm not sure how on Earth he could expect the Cop to have investigated him last night, hell, even in the write up the only possible mention of the cop seemed to suggest that the Cop got a negative result.

Very strange behaviour to me, but I'll let my lynch on Aditya stand.

Uhh what, I don't understand what you've said, or tried to say.

For some reason I find your paragraphing on this occasion a bit suspicious, since you don't tend to post like that. Almost like you want to make sure that you don't forget certain points that you want to make about others. Dunno, could be nothing, but just seems out of the norm.

It's hard to tell with thedon atm, but being his first game, it's possible that he got a bit overeager in trying to get someone lynched. On the other hand, I was throwing lynches around in my first couple of games too as town, so I can't draw any conclusions either way at this stage.

Not sure why you'd be pretty sure that the cop would target you tonight, unless you're paranoid about looking the scummiest so far. On one hand there's Aditya looking a bit dodgy, and then there's people that investigate the most townlike players to confirm that they can be trusted. And as for being confirmed Miller because no one has CC'd, that might be true if we knew that there is a Miller in the game.



Yeah I definitely wouldn't have attempted the kill if I was in User's shoes last night after taking so much heat yesterday. It would've been a good opportunity for the actual SK if it's not User and has been included though, as an attempt to frame him. So I'm inclined to think it's either not present, or is indeed User.

For now though my suspicions are still heavily on Zhuorb and User, and Aditya might be worth an investigation, but I still see him more as paranoid town than bad mafia, especially since I don't think he's a bad player.

FOS: Zhuorb & User2010

Haha, I thought my paragraphing would make it a bit more easy to read through, because I tend to get bored when I see a huge block of text. Might seem unusual, yes, but that's just something I thought of to make it more interesting.

My claim is suspicious now..

Tbvh, lynching me now will be foolish on town's part. You have lost a DV and now wasting a lynch me wouldn't be a wise call. I have nothing against you, Aditya. My role is such I don't care whoever stays alive as long as I survive and 1 of the sides win. So, as I have been saying, town can usey vote to their benefit. Apllies only if you are town though..

This is blatant WIFOM. Appealing to emotion and stating a logical thing at the same time, just do not fit together. Pretty confusing post.

Again, I have no idea whether you're being clever here, or just simply idiotic. It's pointless making decisions about the next day when we're undecided about this day.

I'm much inclined to lynch Zhuorb at this point, only because he game seems weird now. User must strictly be a last resort, unless someone picks something concrete about him being mafia/SK and not survivor. Aditya, after that last post of his I'm not so sure of. Anyway, he gives sensible arguments against Zhuorb.

Lynch: Zhuorb
, he needs three more votes, so has time to defend.

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Equally likely though that the person pointed out in the writeup was the doc, and there's a cop not mentioned who got a positive result. What about the last line? I don't think he said anywhere he believes he was investigated?

It is not really pointless and that would bring the mafia on their guard, because we would be already talking about the next day. They would start discussing on what to claim, and I am really sure that there would be counter-claims, that's why mass-claiming would help us, it just gives just options to lynch between counter-claims.

Clearly it's better to lynch someone who is suspected mafia rather than confirmed 3rd party. My problem is that "this is just the way Zhuorb plays". I'm then looking at you and Abhas wondering why you're quite so keen to press for the lynch.
I actually happen to believe his miller claim; it would take a very ballsy mafia to claim miller under no real pressure when he might be CCed. To me he's a townie playing poorly. I was watching to see who came along and tried to railroad the lynch.
We've got lynches from you and Abhas and an FOS from Sedition. I don't think any of you believe he's mafia.
I also don't believe that three experienced players would just fall in behind such a weak lynch unless you had ulterior motives.

Unlynch: Zhuorb
FOS: Varun, Abhas and Sedition.
Exactly what I am saying. Thanks for realizing.

Exactly what I was thinking Colin. Knowing how Zhuorb plays its just so easy to lynch him when hes done something slightly wrong. And when everyone seems to be going at one guy, 9/10 it means we are going after a townie.

And then comes this post, quoted below, from thedon5.

Yeah I agree with that too.


What is that supposed to mean? If you agree with that, doesn't it mean that you think I am town? Didn't you mention that I am mafia?

I've been looking in Zhuorb's direction specifically because he was one of the few advocating no lynch on the Survivor, and was the least convincing with his reasons for doing so. Wtf is up with "Oh we'll lynch him tomorrow if we have nothing"? We had nothing yesterday, so why not just lynch him then and there and remove all doubt? Doesn't make sense to me at all, unless he's mafia and wants to keep a potentially volatile role around for as long as possible.

Since then he hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. Claiming an insignificant role and narrowing down the mafia's targets when under very little pressure is a terrible play if he's somehow town. Now it's confirmed that we'll get guilty on him no matter what, so unless a tracker or watcher can catch him in the act, we've got no way to confirm.

I'm prepared to put my lynch down on Zhuorb today because he's looking the most obvious so far. If everyone's just going to follow Barmy, then it looks doubtful that we'll go through with that one too.

Hmm that is one point that should not be taken into consideration too much. That was a worst case scenario, because if we cannot find mafia, at least we should lynch someone who definitely is not town.

By the way, my internet went out while compiling quotes during posting this, so that is why it is very late.

This brings me just this last page to go through. I'm so kerplucking tired right now and I spent an hour compiling that stuff. I'm off to sleep, so not lynching anyone yet.


Sorry for the long read, cheers!
 

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