Puddle Mafia 03 - Endgame

[Aditya]

At no point in the game, did I feel that Abhas could be mafia, not just that but a mafia GF. I'd still say that since my role claiming I didn't really find Colin's play to be entirely of a townie. Saying that he shall be protected perhaps 2-3 times didn't entirely convince me, if he hadn't been so pressuring about protecting him, I would have protected him.

BKB makes a interesting point about me in the night write up. With a BD in the game and considering that Colin wasn't entirely convinced with my role, I'd not find it surprising if he used his role on me.

You've role claimed just at the right time, BKB. Let's see what Sedition has to post in his defense, with Abhas coming out as mafia, I find it hard to believe anyone now.

 

[Sedition]

If you're the cop then your guilty must be from whoever Barmy bused me with on Night 1. You would receive guilty on me if it was Abhas, other mafia or Zhuorb if his miller claim is true. The write-up says that potentially successful investigations had been interfered with, which must be referring to you targeting me.

I'm not entirely convinced on the survivor or miller claims, but the presence of a GF and more than likely one of mill/sur means it's unlikely that you're insane, unless there's a second cop out there, so the only way it's possible is that Barmy switched me with mafia.

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actually being bused with Abhas wouldn't have shown me guilty, but any other mafia or Zhuorb if he's miller would have given that result.

 

[Varun]

Night 1:

Years of training. It had been expensive and gruelling. His skills were undoubted, but tonight, perhaps they were misplaced.

He slunk around, at home as he always was when day went to rest. He had his target in mind, but confusion instead veiled his eyes.

Successful indeed. Depending on who you work for.

Night 2:

The routes had never usually confused him, however he unwittingly found himself well off his chosen course. Though unable to usually tend to himself, tonight he had no choice.

Confusing for some, but perhaps a boon for another?

The taste of success still tinged his lips just as the smell of blood still stained his hands. He had nothing but contempt for these lost souls of Duckton. He would claim all that he saw and covet all that he could not. He wanted nothing more than the death of anyone that opposed him. He was wise and experienced in the game of manipulation and tonight he seized the opportunity to rid himself of his potentially greatest threat. He stalked his target with a deft step and narrowed eyes. He watched from afar as his future victim finished his rounds, cashed up his till and made his way out of the depot. It was only a short walk home from here, so time was brief. He cut down a side alley and waited patiently. It only took one bullet to drop his target, but as he stood over the lifeless corpse he let go with two more shots. Whether they were for security and satisfaction not even he really knew.

These are all the paragraphs from the two night writeups which have possible/confirmed indications to the presence of BD. First of all, the standard BD role switches two players so that any other players targeting one of them target the other one instead. His switching in general doesn't affect the targets of his targets. This is the BD used in Colin's 'see how many we get game'. Another variation switches the targets' targets, and some do it both. I'm suspecting the standard BD here.

Night 1-

1 - Aditya's targets were 'misplaced'. Given he says he targeted Colin, Colin must have switched himself with someone.

2 - If the second one refers to BKB getting a wrong result, then did Colin swap him with Sedition? Don't see how he'd get a mafia result on him though, unless he was miller BD which would be weird.

I'm thus suspecting that the first one doesn't refer to Aditya. If it refers to BKB, then the second could refer to a tracker or even a mafia rolecop, although unlikely. See the night 2 writeup says that the previous night had 'derailed potentially successful investigations'. More than one. We can count tracker/watcher as an investigatory role.

Conclusion: Colin switched Sedition with tracker/watcher/mafia rolecop's target. So, if we know who the tracker/watcher targeted, that person is mafia, since BKB got a negative result on him. But the only thing bugging me is the 'expensive, gruelling'.

3 - Doesn't make sense now, but I guess I'll stick to my old opinions.

Night 2 -

1 - Colin switched Aditya with someone. Aditya targeted that someone and ended up targeting himself. I'd like to know who Aditya protected.

2 - no idea now.

See? PD's left us enough clues to figure out Colin's actions.

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I doubt User even submitted his night role if he had one, he's going through a tough time.

True, but depends. If I was a mod, and I knew finding replacements would be difficult, I'd have got a target from him before him leaving. Don't know, though.

 

[Manly]

Gimme an hour to get home and have a shower then I'll post my musings. I've not lurked I've been at uni and Wembley (and drunk) the last few days.

 

[BKB1991]

I was quite solid against Sedition, but this latest twist has given me doubts. It is possible that Colin switched both Zhuorb and Sedition, which explains why he was sure Zhuorb isnt lying. But still Sedition, I feel theres something quite different in your gameplay or maybe its because I just looked at you as a mafia for the whole of day 1

 

[Sedition]

Yeah it makes sense now why you were coming after me. I thought you must've been trying to get a bandwagon going when you didn't say much other than you have a feeling I'm mafia.

Even though we haven't heard from everyone since your claim, it would be pointless to fakeclaim as mafia when they already know who the cop is, or the one they blocked anyway if PD included two again.

The only ones I could've been switched with to give the guilty result are Pallu(Manly), Zhuorb, User, thedon and Varun.

If User's survivor, which I'm leaning towards now, then it can't have been him. If Zhuorb's Miller/Mafia then could definitely be him. Varun's given me strong town vibes all game, doesn't seem anything like the Varun that was mafia last game, so I think it's gotta be either Zhuorb or one of Manly or thedon and they're mafia.

Interested to see if Manly will come back to post. I know he was viewing the thread when the day write-up was posted, so I've been a bit suspicious that he didn't have anything to say for so long.

 

[BKB1991]

The fact is I am still not sold on you either side. The rest of the guys have stayed pretty much neutral throughout the game so its hard to pick up whos on what side.

 

[Manly]

I've been sidetracked by a crate of beer lads, sorry! With you shortly

 

[BKB1991]

Was looking at Abhas's posts to get some idea, but hes casually avoided teaming up with people. His analysis here is the best we got.

Apologies for being quite inactive, it's just that work-pressure has increased and I was expecting the game to have moved into the final stages by now when I signed up.
I'm not too sure about my analysis, I haven't been able to go through the posts thoroughly like I'm used to doing, however, this is a brief of what I think about the people:

1. Barmy - Neutral. Although I initially felt he was town inclined, the recent aggression has confused me a bit. He has defended Zhuorb, not that I have any problem with that, but he's basically pointing the gun at anyone who dares to look at him from a different perspective. I wouldn't call that completely pro-town play, because as townies, we are looking for clues from discussion, and we should look at all possible perspectives while discussing.
2. Manly - Leaning Neutral/Mafia. Hasn't done much to warrant a pro-town analysis.
4. Sedition - Neutral/Leaning Mafia. Although when I started the day, I assumed him to be the cop, however, I have a feeling I may not have made the right assumption. I'm suspicious, however, not as strongly as barmyarmy's advocating.
5. Zhuorb - Since nobody's CC'ed, I'm pained to believe he's the real miller. I'll definitely be keeping a very close eye on him, and he'll be my first lynch target if I smell anything suspicious. I hate millers.
6. User - Confirmed 3rd Party, but I'm not too convinced with his 'survivor' role. Like I said, there's definitely something more to his role, that being a night action. I would have liked to place him under more pressure, but looking at the unfortunate event that's taken place, we shouldn't expect him to be completely active.
7. theDon Absolutely null read. TBH, I havn't been able to analyze much of his posts, because I've not had much time the past couple of days. The tone of his posts has been diplomatic, so can't really say that's a town thing or an anti-town thing.
8. BKB Leaning Town. Not much to go from, however, looks pro-town to me.
9. Varun - Neutral. I don't think he's played any different from what he normally does. I probably see why others are linking him and Sedition, because he's advocated for him. I don't think this is an anti-town tendency. As mafia, you are more likely to distance yourself from the rest of your team-mates. Town players are likely to follow a chain of thought which they can relate to, and that's probably what he's doing. That said, I'll be looking into his posts a bitmore closely again to see if I can get anything.
11. Aditya - Leaning town. Has claimed the doc, not CC'ed, so I'm willing to believe his claim, but I wasn't happy with him revealing who he targeted at night. Could be a covert reason to clear Barmyarmy's name, because the way he said it, it looked like an afterthought. Clearing him for now.

(Ignore the numbers, I copy pasted from the first post, and deleted the dead)

The way I see it Abhas would have spoken as neutrally as he can. His convo later with Manly could have been a way to confuse us into believing we are not together. Pallu was also subbed out quickly, and that reason could be because he had an important role.

I'd say Zhuorb and Aditya havent been CC'ed so they seem pro-town. I still believe that Sedition is mafia, because he hasnt been as aggressive as hes normally, but that writeup has caused me to be in some doubt. Dont like Manly and thedon as neither have helped the towns case greatly. Varun has also been suspicious afaic.

Think we might need a mass roleclaim, but no one claim just yet, we need to have a consensus on it first.

 

[thedon5]

I'm not sure what more I can do to 'help' the town's case, I have been active and posting my opinions since the start of day two.

With 11 players in the game, there must be what, two or three mafia ss well as the one knocked off? To me that seems a tad bit early as the mafia should have time to eliminate our power roles before we can properly isolate them. Perhaps tomorrow would be a good day for a mass roleclaim?

 

[BKB1991]

Well how do you think we should proceed? You think we should lynch Sedition? Are there any other candidates in your sight?

The idea behind a mass roleclaim is that at this point there are three possible anti-towns atm and like the mafia already knew I was a cop and they may already know more info about us by having used their night roles. Using a mass role claim we can come together with our info at the same time possibly expelling the mafia who might weak role claims.

Ofcourse this is based on the assumption that the mafia do know more than we do. For all we know Colins actions might have confused them too

 

[Varun]

Unfortunately I have nothing to convince you but my posts. Investigate me if you want on the night, although if don't nail the roleblocker, the chance is high they will kill you. I don't want you to base your opinion of me on Sedition either; I believe he's town, but if he's mafia, he's trying to take me down with him by calling me town.

Anything is possible here. Colin might have switched a mafia with mafia/Zhuorb so who knows. Have you read my last analysis of the BD though? I believe the person the tracker/watcher targeted is the person swapped by the BD with Sedition.

 

[thedon5]

Well how do you think we should proceed? You think we should lynch Sedition? Are there any other candidates in your sight?

The idea behind a mass roleclaim is that at this point there are three possible anti-towns atm and like the mafia already knew I was a cop and they may already know more info about us by having used their night roles. Using a mass role claim we can come together with our info at the same time possibly expelling the mafia who might weak role claims.

Ofcourse this is based on the assumption that the mafia do know more than we do. For all we know Colins actions might have confused them too

I'm not completely against a mass roleclaim. To me it seems a bad idea to do so now, it may just be my lack of experience though. I've obviously never witnessed a mass roleclaim before so have no idea when it would be best to do so, just using hunches.

I don't want to rush into anything as well since only really Varun, Sedition and you have been posting regularly in Day 3, with a bit from Aditya and Zhuorb, I want to see more from the others as well.

I have to agree though your claim has made me most suspicious of Sedition so far, but I don't want to run to any conclusions without seeing a lot of other players' thoughts.

 

[Varun]

Sedition, if you believe BKB's investigation on you was affected by Colin, where in the Night 1 writeup do you think it is depicted? There are two descriptions which could be referring to the BD's switches, and one of them seems doctor ('gruelling, expensive, years of training') while the other doesn't seem to me to be referring to a cop. Why would 'confusion veil' a cop's eyes?

 

[Sedition]

Was looking at Abhas's posts to get some idea, but hes casually avoided teaming up with people. His analysis here is the best we got.



The way I see it Abhas would have spoken as neutrally as he can. His convo later with Manly could have been a way to confuse us into believing we are not together. Pallu was also subbed out quickly, and that reason could be because he had an important role.

I'd say Zhuorb and Aditya havent been CC'ed so they seem pro-town. I still believe that Sedition is mafia, because he hasnt been as aggressive as hes normally, but that writeup has caused me to be in some doubt. Dont like Manly and thedon as neither have helped the towns case greatly. Varun has also been suspicious afaic.

Think we might need a mass roleclaim, but no one claim just yet, we need to have a consensus on it first.

Yesterday one reason you gave for being suspicious of me was that I was relentlessly going after Zhuorb. Then there was User on Day 1, and Barmy and yourself when I was being accused supposedly because I was following Barmy's lynch on Zhuorb. Those accusations sidetracked me a bit because they were based on a false reason that I was only suspicious of Zhuorb after Barmy placed a lynch, when he was actually agreeing with me, then placed his lynch.

I now realise that since Barmy was sure that he was going to be targeted, he knew that by attacking me with those obvious inconsistencies, that I was one player that would come back aggressive at him and would give him hope to survive if others also became suspicious of his actions.

When Abhas kept his head low after being accused, it seems Barmy may have zeroed in on that and chose him as the redirection target. If he was able to self-target, then he would have switched himself last night after being so sure that he was the mafia's target. Without knowing what version of the BD he was, it's hard to say though. I only knew of the normal one but the variations Varun mentioned are possible too.

I'm not entirely convinced on Zhuorb still. If there was no Miller included to CC him, then his premature claim has left him almost untouchable. Only a tracker/watcher seeing him out at night, or if he's SK, an investigation that shows him innocent on a night that he doesn't kill would catch him out.

Anyway moving on from him for now. Manly has started to catch my eye my eye recently. First, he was viewing the thread when today's write-up was posted, and his thanking of Hedger's post confirmed that it wasn't just his phone viewing threads again, yet it took him almost 24 hours to respond and has offered up 2 nothing posts in 36 hours.

There was also this interesting post from Pallu before he was subbed out

@User2010 , are you ready to die ?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was mafia/sk and didn't understand that the idea is to remain hidden.

Since Manly has promised to get back us, I might aswell give him some extra motivation.

FOS: Manly