Puddle Mafia 03 - Endgame

[thedon5]

We've already got three lynches on him. We just need two more.

I'm not buying his story at all and by the looks of it you are on the verge of lynching him too Varun. That leaves one more guy before we can lynch him.

 

[Sedition]

Yeah and that doesn't disprove what I said at all..

1 - Aditya's targets were 'misplaced'. Given he says he targeted Colin, Colin must have switched himself with someone.

2 - If the second one refers to BKB getting a wrong result, then did Colin swap himself with Sedition? Don't see how he'd get a mafia result on him though, unless he was miller BD which would be weird.

If Colin switched himself Night 1 then why would he want doc protection when he could've switched himself out again last night? You're making the assumption that he must have switched himself when it doesn't make sense not to do it again if he believed he was getting targeted.

Aditya protecting Colin and the reference to misplaced was a reference to the BD role existing and strengthened by the fact that it was the BD targeted.

Obviously Barmy couldn't have switched me with himself or himself with anyone otherwise the result on me doesn't make sense, nor does him not protecting himself last night make sense.

 

[Varun]

Aditya protecting Colin and the reference to misplaced was a reference to the BD role existing and strengthened by the fact that it was the BD targeted.

So how it was 'misplaced'?

 

[Sedition]

It was misplaced because Colin was not the mafia's target on Night 1 and at the time it served as a clue along with the confusion right after that the BD was in the game. It's not a coincidence that the person protected also happened to be the BD.

If you seriously think that the only explanation for 'misplaced' is that Colin must've switched himself than why are you ignoring the fact that he didn't do so again in Night 2 when he was sure he was the mafia's target?

 

[Varun]

We've already got three lynches on him. We just need two more.

I'm not buying his story at all and by the looks of it you are on the verge of lynching him too Varun. That leaves one more guy before we can lynch him.

Getting too desperate?

It's not about buying the story. His is a very reasonable argument, but if it doesn't corroborate with the writeup, it's unlikely that it is true.

 

[BKB1991]

I am really not following what Varun and Sedition are talking about, but answer me this, are you guys just merely speculating? Cause if that is the case, I just feel its distracting the town.

I am tired of Manly holding up the play. When I was mafia with him, he sometimes used to do it intentionally. Doesnt mean I am convinced you are town Sedition, but for the time being you are too closed to being lynched of.

Unlynch: Sedition
Lynch: Manly

 

[Varun]

If you seriously think that the only explanation for 'misplaced' is that Colin must've switched himself than why are you ignoring the fact that he didn't do so again in Night 2 when he was sure he was the mafia's target?

Was he? I wonder why would you say this, Sedition The mafia obviously had two people to target, Colin and Aditya. Colin was obviously trying to confuse them so they wouldn't be sure who to target. Most probably he was convinced that they'd target Aditya the doc thinking he'd protect Colin so he switched Adi and you, you being the most suspicious to him. It bothers me that this thought doesn't struck you, Sedition.

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I'm not saying that misplaced definitely means switched, but your argument doesn't make sense.

 

[Manly]

Give me an hour.

 

[Varun]

I am really not following what Varun and Sedition are talking about, but answer me this, are you guys just merely speculating? Cause if that is the case, I just feel its distracting the town.

I'm trying to use the writeup to deduce whether he was actually switched by Colin or not, or what are the chances of that. Don't know why it is really difficult to follow. You're not able to comprehend it, and Zhuorb is getting sick of all this (like he always does). I believe I'm the only one trying to analyze things besides Sedition, and yet the suspicion will come on me especially if Sedition turns out mafia.

 

[Sedition]

Was he? I wonder why would you say this, Sedition The mafia obviously had two people to target, Colin and Aditya. Colin was obviously trying to confuse them so they wouldn't be sure who to target. Most probably he was convinced that they'd target Aditya the doc thinking he'd protect Colin so he switched Adi and you, you being the most suspicious to him. It bothers me that this thought doesn't struck you, Sedition.

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I'm not saying that misplaced definitely means switched, but your argument doesn't make sense.

I think Barmy knew better than anyone that there was little chance that Aditya could have protected him for the second consecutive night. The only chance he had was to either cast enough suspicion on himself to avoid being killed, or switch himself with the person he most suspected as mafia.

I know he must have switched me with someone on Night 1, and it definitely wasn't with him otherwise there would be no guilty. He didn't switch himself Night 2 since he didn't avoid the kill, so the only conclusion is that he couldn't switch himself.

 

[Varun]

I think Barmy knew better than anyone that there was little chance that Aditya could have protected him for the second consecutive night.

Again, not. If he had switched himself with you on Night 1, it would have been possible.

But you might be true as well, I suppose.

 

[BKB1991]

Well the way I see it Varun it is just mere speculation. Unless you come to a reasonable deduction, I dont want to waste my time on what could have happened. I dont think we can guess who Colin targetted at all. So unless you guys can come up with a reasonable explanation rather than plain guesswork, I am all ears.

You guys could simply be confusing us all, so yea atm I have no intention of following you guys

 

[thedon5]

Yeah well I am following your discussion, and there are two possiblites.

1. All of Sedition's hunches and guesses about how Barmy used his power on the TWO days are correct and he is a townie.

2. BKB's investigation was indeed correct and Sedition is mafia.

Sedition is mafia, almost certain. The first possibility makes very little sense really at all.

 

[Varun]

It is pretty clear from the writeup and the fact that Aditya protected Sedition that Colin switched Aditya and Sedition on Night 2.

What remains is to figure out what happened on Night 1.

 

[Sedition]

It's not hard for me to deduce what happened with Barmy on Night 1 when I know the guilty result is false. I know I was switched and the write-up confirms that Barmy had interfered with an investigation, but obviously you guys need to look at both sides of the coin.

We also know that Barmy didn't switch himself last night otherwise he wouldn't have been killed. It's not complete guesswork I'm using here as is being suggested.

It's after midnight here though, so I'll check back in the morning when hopefully others have followed and posted their thoughts.