South Africa in England July-Sept 2012

[Owzat]

Critical session coming up, in fact make that critical first hour. England need to get a couple of wickets early, they really will not want to be chasing 250+ and while there's plenty of time, there is enough in it you wouldn't want to be facing 300.

saffers make it to lunch they'll be near enough 250 in front, anywhere near tea and I think England will struggle. Don't forget we've got a batting order with a few weaknesses

Strauss - not in great form
Cook - good when he gets in, still vulnerable early
Trott - like Cook, solid but vulnerable early
Bell - can be solid, can be a weak link
Taylor - not experienced
Bairstow - one good knock under his belt, but inexperienced
Prior - can't rely on the keeper, can lose his wicket any time

First hour will play a big part in where this Test goes, even a couple of wickets for England won't mean they're favourites, it will just pull the match back closer to parity. At the moment it is about 70-30 in favour of South Africa IMHO, the saffers not quite so easy to budge this time around.

 

[barmyarmy]

SA bat long and I can see them getting 400+ here. Watch the England body language especially Broad go downhill if they don't get early wickets.
My concern now is that Strauss has been made unsackable by the KP affair and will get to lead and lose in India.

 

[MUFC1987]

Better than electing a new Captain and then essentially setting him up to fail in his first series. Let's face it, the team isn't going to change much, no matter who is Captain, so it's unlikely that we're going to do well in India. We may as well stick with Strauss, who clearly has the support of the team, rather than going with Cook, who needs to find his form again.

 

[Haarithan]

Bah I give up. Not the first time Jimmy's put down an absolute dolly in this series...

 

[Owzat]

England need to win the Test, make most of chances, and they've dropped both current incumbents at the crease. I know why Strauss is bowling Trott, I wish he wouldn't. We need to pose as big a wicket threat as possible, this rushing of the new ball through at a cost of a few runs doesn't really pay dividends.

Trott : 3 wkts @ 109.33 (SR 184.00, ER 3.57) - before his two overs today. Not a particularly impressive record on any count, yes I know he poses more threat than his figures, but he's so medium that any swing is too gentle to pose a serious threat. Yet somehow his captain has ordained he bowl 92 overs in 34 Tests, maybe only 2-3 overs per Test but at the rate he takes wickets he'd take 307 overs.

It's 'fine' on a flat wicket when you're not chasing victory, maybe induce a false stroke or the batsman loses concentration a la KP, but when you are chasing victory you can't afford more spells of nothing happening than you will get naturally with your main bowlers



England's chances are diminishing rapidly, I'd suggest already the saffers are firm favourites England would have to take the last six wickets for 30-40 runs and even then that might not be enough.

We have one advantage over the saffers, Swann. The rest is either even or advantage South Africa. Biggest difference is their batsmen do the job, ourselves do the job less often. They'll be worthy winners of this Test/the series, England will again have gotten away with it if they draw the series.

 

[MUFC1987]

Sky's running commentary of KP has gone well today.

 

[puddleduck]

I keep bringing up two things over the last year or so. Firstly that Strauss doesn't score runs and needs to step-down. The second is that our catching has been very poor for a team that should by all accounts be a very good fielding side. Too many important catches put down at important times. The better batsman don't give you a second chance without it being earned.

 

[MUFC1987]

That's why Finn should always be in the team. Has a knack of making something happen and getting out very good, set batsmen. Just need to blast through a couple now and get the crowd rocking.

 

[Dennis Mennis]

Well, teatime and SA has a 300 run lead which is a good psychological total but not enough yet. England will really go after any total, there's no point in not doing so as a draw loses the series and may as well be a loss. We need to bat at least another 20 overs and get at least another 60 or 70! Even then I won't feel comfortable until the English wickets start tumbling.

 

[barmyarmy]

I feel that 300 will be very tough and 350 is probably beyond England. It's all about seeing off the new ball and batting sensibly.

 

[Dennis Mennis]

I reckon this is the most important session of the entire series - if we lose three wickets quickly we lose, if we score another 70 we probably win!

 

[Dennis Mennis]

Lead is more than the England first innings total now. Getting there, slowly but surely. JP for president, Vernon for big chief!
(That's our equivalent of the Queen!)

 

[puddleduck]

Can't help but think putting down Amla and AbeeDaVee early in their innings is going to prove costly. The lower order runs from Duminy and Philander again proving important.

 

[Owzat]

I think the game's already up, England just haven't sustained enough pressure and taken their chances.

But as I said when South Africa were struggling 1st innings, anything England can do, South Africa can do, and vice versa. So far the pitch has produced 300 every innings, problem is England don't appear to be close to polishing them off and they're adding enough runs to think it will be a daunting chase, if not a mathematical nightmare given we're not even looking at over 320+ over four sessions................

Saffers will be happy to just push up to near as 400 target as possible and not give England a look in.

 

[Dennis Mennis]

Yep, for sure. But these guys are actually batsmen, remember Steyn came in as night watchman. Only Morkel and Tahir to come so if one of these guys goes now it's tickets. Lead is now 330.

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And there you go, Philander gone! Highest chase at Lords is 344, highest in England 404 at Leeds by Australia in 1948.

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Morkel knew that one didn't hit the glove cause it was right between the eyes!