People will buy for lots of reasons. Some will make informed choices based on reviews, or word of mouth, or the 10 people who can actually attend the play session might buy it based on playing; some will buy for the bradman name, some will buy for the ashes license. Some will buy for the features on the box. Lots will probably buy the game that is available when they're thinking about cricket, maybe in the week before the first test.
Other than nobody will buy for the licensed kit items, it's probably very difficult to know which of these factors - or the ones I have missed - will influence the majority. That presumably is why this is such a complex release.
I am convinced an early Nov release was best for DBC. Before Ac13 can release, when people are thinking about cricket. I think dec is when they will release because they want to know if AC13 will release. If it doesn't they might squeeze for late Nov. if ashes does release, well I think all bets are off, it would be 50-50 for a 2013 release. (Citation being Ross' statements of avoiding a market killing 20 dollar game, preferring only mover advantage, and the release being most advantageous. One thing we can all agree on, a couple of weeks after a competitor, missing the peak of the start if a tournament between the teams of their 2 biggest markets, with next gen on the shelves, isn't the most advantageous.)
Bottom line, it's hard to know which of the contradictions we've been fed to take at face value, but my hunch is if AC13 doesn't release, you'll see this 28/11 or 5/12
If AC13 doesn't release, I wouldn't bank on this being in your Christmas stocking.
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for those like snowy who have the reading comprehension of a bowl of pot-pourri at the bottom of a dusty wardrobe, please be aware that the sentence "If AC13 doesn't release, I wouldn't bank on this being in your Christmas stocking." should of course be "If AC13 does release, etc." I won't edit the above because I don't want his post below to look more ridiculous than it already does.
for those like biggs, who are unable to appreciate hyperbolic understatement as a rhetorical device, please be aware that I am not expecting literally 10 people to turn up. I am just assuming it will be a statistically insignificant amount in relation to the final sales.
for those people who don't have a brain injury, sub-normal IQ, or major personality disorder, I apologise that I had to insult your intelligence by writing the above two paragraphs.