So I've been trying to think about who seems likely to make up the English 2023 World Cup squad...
Top-Order Hitters
1ST CHOICE -
Jonny Bairstow (Age: 34)
An average of 47 and strike rate of 105 is irreplaceable; if he's still going to the same standard at the age of 34, then he'll be in.
2ND CHOICE -
Jason Roy (Age: 33)
Again, a huge part of the line-up when he's playing well as he averages 40 at a strike rate of 106. But I'm also unconvinced that his game will hold together for that long; even before the pandemic, he'd barely hit 30 all year this year.
3RD CHOICE -
Tom Banton (Age: 24)
The stats don't really merit Banton's inclusion yet, but he's someone who's being picked very much on potential. He showed that potential hugely in his 42-ball 71 against Pakistan, as well as fruitful Blast and Big Bash stints. Should not bat anywhere other than the top of the order.
4TH CHOICE -
Phil Salt (Age: 27)
He's yet to make his England debut, but if he does he'll be the first Welshman to do so since Simon Jones. And it you're in the market for a bonus stat, he was also the player who earned a CPL winner's medal because he happened to be holidaying there when a Tridents player got injured before the final. Salt got the call and flew in to make a duck.
5TH CHOICE -
Tom Kohler-Cadmore (Age: 29)
One of the three players involved in Alex Hepburn's group chats, I'd happily never see him play for England no matter how good a batsman he is. A bunch of Lions appearances suggest that he's in the selectors' minds though.
NOT A CHOICE -
Alex Hales (Age: 34)
Once the prototype of what Bairstow and Roy have become, Alex Hales has found himself persona non grata for the crime of being an all-round shit bloke. It's kind of hard to argue with.
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Accumulators
1ST CHOICE -
Joe Root (Age: 32)
He's the fidgety, accumulator glue that allows England's hitters to play to their fullest potential. And for an accumulator he scores quickly too, with a strike rate up around 90.
2ND CHOICE -
Sam Hain (Age: 28)
Sam Hain has been a massive victim of England's approach of only picking one accumulator in their ODI side where most teams would (should?) pick two. Hain averages 60 in List A cricket at a strike rate of 87, and if that sounds exceptional it's because nobody has ever done that before.
3RD CHOICE -
Dawid Malan (Age: 36)
The world's number one Twenty20 International batsman has for some strange reason only played once for England's ODI team. He's certainly more than good - and versatile - enough to make a World Cup squad, but he'll be 36 by the time the next one rolls around so it might be a bit late.
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Middle-Order Hitters
1ST CHOICE -
Jos Buttler (Age: 33)
Obviously.
2ND CHOICE -
Ben Stokes (Age: 32)
Also obviously. Also provides some useful overs, because we do need to get some overs out of our batsmen in order to balance the side.
3RD CHOICE -
Eoin Morgan (Age: 37)
He'll be 37, but a World Cup defence would be an apt swansong for England's most decorated white-ball captain.
4TH CHOICE -
Sam Billings (Age: 32)
Another player of a certain age, it's kind of hard to argue with his 2020 performances now that he's been given an extended run. However, he might lose out if England need bowling options in their middle order.
5TH CHOICE -
Liam Livingstone (Age: 30)
Since when was Liam Livingstone in his late 20s already? Anyhow, he has a List A average of 36 at a run a ball, and offers some stock spin that might be much-needed by England.
6TH CHOICE -
Tom Lammonby (Age: 23)
Probably a bit bold to pick a guy who's not played a List A match yet, but Tom Lammonby has made a fantastic start to his first-class career while also striking at 150 in Twenty20s: he's a hitter who can bat long if needed. He also bowls some left-arm seam, which could be valuable.
7TH CHOICE -
Liam Dawson (Age: 33)
Another player who's like... a lot older than you think at first. Much more of a bowling-first pick, you could certainly get away with Dawson batting at seven.
NOT A CHOICE -
Moeen Ali (Age: 36)
Let's be honest, he's been taking up a spot for a long time now.
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Bowling Options
At least one, possibly two bowling options as well as the keeper have to come from the batsmen listed above.
Pace Bowlers
1ST CHOICE -
Jofra Archer (Age: 28)
An express pace bowler who delivered in the World Cup final; can't say fairer than that.
2ND CHOICE -
Chris Woakes (Age: 34)
A key member of England's ODI attack - sort of a friendly Josh Hazlewood. He will be 34 by the time the next World Cup rolls around, but if he's still doing his job then he should still get picked. Plus, he's a handy batsman at seven or eight.
3RD CHOICE -
Mark Wood (Age: 33)
He's the fastest bowler in England. If he's still able to be that bowler at the age of 33, then another World Cup beckons for him. His workload will have to be managed.
4TH CHOICE -
Reece Topley (Age: 29)
It's very difficult to pick a bowler with Reece Topley's injury record, but if he
is fit then then he's one of the top four available seam bowlers.
5TH CHOICE -
Tom Curran (Age: 28)
Curran's ODI numbers aren't fantastic, but there's a sense that he bowls the "difficult overs" and that he can be moulded into an elite death bowler. His emergence at Surrey was as a bristling yorker bowler.
6TH CHOICE -
Saqib Mahmood (Age: 26)
A promising, aggressive pace bowler. He's not
quite as quick as Wood or Archer, or as skilled as Woakes or Curran, but he's an excellent all-round seamer.
7TH CHOICE -
Sam Curran (Age: 25)
He's on the list for sure, but Sam is definitely the more hittable Curran bowler. An ODI economy rate of seven is... eh.
NOT A CHOICE -
Chris Jordan (Age: 35)
He's very much found his niche in the Twenty20 team, but I don't think that a 35-year-old Chris Jordan will offer anything new to the ODI team that it doesn't have already.
NOT A CHOICE -
Liam Plunkett (Age: 38)
He won't be playing for England at the United States, but if the United States manage to fight their way into the 2023 World Cup then there's a non-zero chance that Plunkett could appear for them.
Spin Bowlers
1ST CHOICE -
Adil Rashid (Age: 35)
He's England's foremost attacking white ball spinner and if he's still fit and able, he'll make the team.
2ND CHOICE -
Liam Dawson
Even if he doesn't make the top seven, I still feel that Liam Dawson should make the team as probably the best available stock bowler.
3RD CHOICE -
Matt Parkinson (Age: 26)
An excellent attacking leg-spinner; he bowls unfashionably slowly, but it's not that he needs to work at. It's his fielding.
4TH CHOICE -
Simon Harmer (Age: 34)
Will he be England-qualified by then?
5TH CHOICE -
Dan Moriarty (Age: 24)
This is an almighty punt based on eight professional games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Surrey-born and South African-educated Moriarty sneak into the squad.
6TH CHOICE -
Mason Crane (Age: 26)
An attacking leggie with a decent List A record and a lot of hype, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mason Crane sneak into the reckoning.
NOT A CHOICE -
Moeen Ali
See above. Can't pick him just to keep Rashid happy.
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So... a squad prediction?
In batting order, with reserves:
Jonny Bairstow
Sam Hain
Joe Root
Eoin Morgan
Ben Stokes
Jos Buttler
Liam Livingstone
Chris Woakes
Tom Curran
Adil Rashid
Jofra Archer
Phil Salt
Tom Banton
Liam Dawson
Saqib Mahmood
It's an ageing squad, and a slightly different balance to the current team. The reasons for the changes are as follows:
Roy out / Hain in
I think/hope that Roy's game is on a genuine decline, and there's definite merit in picking more than one accumulator when they both score at over five an over anyway.
Moeen out / Livingstone in
Moeen's primary role is as a lower middle-order hitter, and it's a job he's been failing at. Livingstone certainly has that skill-set, and will likely be used as the stock spinner as it's a role England haven't always taken completely seriously.
Wood out / Curran in
He'll be injured, and so will Reece Topley.
Liam Dawson as 12th man
It is tradition.
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Thoughts?