The Hurricanes, Sharks, and Highlanders are currently 5, 5, and 4 points ahead of the Reds respectively, and in the last three rounds all of them have a bye. So effectively they're 9, 9, and 8 points ahead of the Reds with two matches in hand, while the Reds have three matches in hand.
If just one of those three teams win both of their remaining matches then the Reds are gone, unless one of the current top five teams capitulates down the table, which is unlikely considering that other than the Chiefs they all have at least one gimmie coming home. Even if just one of those three teams (Hurricanes, Sharks, and Highlanders) wins one of the their remaining matches, the Reds will still need to win all three of their remaining matches with bonus points, and hope that the other three teams don't get any bonus points. So overall I'm pretty sure that the Reds are gone, unless pretty much every result goes their way after the international break.