South Africa have only batted once, England would unlikely declare and try to bowl them out, and it is highly unlikely England would be bowled out for say 260-290 and South Africa not make any runs needed to win ie the chances of England being bowled out for under 300 and South Africa being bowled out for the 1st innings deficit or less are remote.
The odds of South Africa losing from here are astronomic[
EXACTLY! I can't believe Smith is getting props for this declaration. It came about an hour too late in my view, maybe more. If you've got an innings in hand and you are confident your are the better team, I think you shouldn't need a lead much more than 100 - 200 should be the absolute max.
Look at this scenario: If SA had declared midway through the 2nd session, they would have been in front by 189 - more if Smith/Kirsten had told them to declare at that point because they would have sped up the RR.
With a 189 lead and 4.5 sessions left in the game, you might see 450 runs left in the game.
England could get 261 runs in front if they batted all that time (450-189).
If England went for a win, they would have to set SA half of that 261 - at MOST, because they wouldn't want to give away an easy victory chase ie. 130 runs in 1.25 sessions would be a pretty tasty target, even on the 5th day of a Test. So England would have needed to set something like 160 in 30 overs - if they were desperate to push for that win.
If SA were scared of batting those hypothetical 30 overs and delayed their declaration because of that yesterday - they are idiots, cowards, noobs, whatever you want to call them. Sure, by batting that extra hour they decreased their chance of losing from 0.5% to 0.1% (I'm estimating here
)...but they decreased their chance of winning by much, much more. Essentially they've just given themselves an hour less to bowl out England. It was pure greed for Amla's 300. Smith/Kirsten should have told Amla, you have til the drinks break, maybe 30 mins to tea at the ABSOLUTE latest to reach 300 - get on with it man, you've been out there 2 days anyway...
It may turn out fine, but if England get a draw with only 3 or less wickets in the shed, then SA will have wanted that extra hour.
What a brilliant day! Cricket has been superb and now Ernie just won the open! It hasn't been too bad for you guys either with Wiggins - well done to him!
It must be relieving to see an Australian choke for a South African to win something