Pakistan, I think have 75% chance. The Indians can only live on hope.
Will Yuvi(dropped), Irfan(unfit), Dada(unfit) even play?
Likely, we will have Badani(if he's fit), Karthik(as Dravid's captain) and Nehra.
The teams may possibly be
Veeru,Sachin,Laxman,Kaifu,Jammy,Badani,Karthik,Bhajji,Jumbo,Zaheer and Nehra.
and Pakistan likely
Farhat,Umar,Malik,Inzy,Youhana,Younis,Razzaq,Afridi,Akmal,Naveed,Shoaib,Sami
If Pakistan bat first,
You can expect anything(considering Pakistan's unpredictability)
At worst may happen a quick fall of early wickets -- but Pakistan can settle later on(having so many batsmen)
Now, if the pitch is spinner friendly Pakistanis will have to work really very hard but they would be knowing that a score around 200 is safe. Some late hitting will get them on track. I expect them to get 200-240.
India's reply won't be very good. If they start badly they are out of contention. But, even if they get a good start you can always expect a middle order collapse(remember Holland, 63-1 in 9 overs to 127 all out(8 wickets to spinners)). Considering that most of the players are out of form you should not even expect a good comeback at any stage. We did lose to Aussies(TVS Cup), Lankans(Asia Cup) chasing low scores and failed miserably.
If it isn't then it is certainly batsmen friendly. Pak's score would be 250 - 300.
Well, there's a good chance but only if they get a big partnership(100-150 runs). This too is unlikely with none(almost) in form.
Suppose India bat first on a spinner friendly surface.
Chances are much higher. Even 200 will be enough as batting 2nd at Kolkatta has always been tough(187 average score). But here Pakistan's unpredicatabily and players' unorthodox techniques, flukes, luck etc. may do the job for them. One or the other guy is bound to put up a fight(like Youhana in CT) and they won't surrender come what may.
On a batsmen friendly pitch, Pakistani bowlers' amazing pace may make it difficult in even these conditions. As none(in team) knows about a good score, it will be a disoriented approach and they can get around 220-270. If its 250+ India are favourites but this is tough to imagine this as of now.
I give India
5% if Pak bat first on a batsmen friendly pitch.
25% if on a spinner friendly surface
40% if they bat first on a spinner friendly surface.
10% if on a batsmen friendly wicket.
Average = 20%
20% in India's favour
5% in the honour of rain gods.
75% in Pak's favour.
Note:- I haven't considered Pakistan's side of the story.