Puddle Mafia 04 - Endgame Mafia (barmyarmy, BKB, RPHKR win)

[thedon5]

Any new tips on who we go after next?

Looks like we're heading for another no lynch today with the time limit in place, but we can definitely work on isolating more members of the mafia for tomorrow.

 

[Abhas]

Most likely the reason BKB failed is because the mafia's kill takes priority, so your presence certainly isn't confirmed.

You think there are probably 1 or 2?! mafia amongst the no-lynchers? There's only 3 remaining - User, Aditya and thedon that posted within the 48 hours, so to say that's too large a group to go after when you think there's possibly even 2 amongst them doesn't make sense. Seems like a good starting point no?

All 3 of them copped heat and in thedon and Aditya's case, they had also barely posted anything of substance until that point. If you think it was pointless then I guess you haven't found their subsequent posts helpful in the slightest.

If you are actually town then the 5 people lynching you would also be a good start, there should be 1 or 2 mafia amongst them too, but I guess that's too large of a group too.

I don't know what you're implying here, Sedition. From what I see, a group of 4 or 5 is smaller than a group of 14.
Besides, this group is likely to provide us more clues about the mafia than the rest.

Pressure lynches are useful for reasons more than 1, one of them is definitely getting to know voting patterns (or the lack of it) - Mafia are likely to try and avoid any such pattern, and by doing so, either they all seem to behave alike, or alteast 1 will have to be voting in a pattern.

Anyway, I reckon we don't have much to go for apart from Papa_Smurf's claim, which looks legit to me.
The other people I've been a bit suspicious of are thedon and barmyarmy.
FOS: thedon, Barmyarmy

I don't have any 'proof' or anything, but like User stated earlier, barmyarmy's gameplay hasn't been looking very pro-town.
thedon's looking a bit circumspect. He's not willing to take a stance on anything, rather trying to follow the crowd with discussion.

Probably someone with roles might be able to help us out better if they are able to find anything.
1 thing is sure, since the writeup is not going to help us much, and I'm not sure if PD's revealing the roles, it is essential that the power roles are well utilized.

 

[Sedition]

I was being sarcastic that the group of 5 lynchers was too large. I've been making the point all along that it's easier to work from a small group that likely contains at least 1 scum. In Smurf's words that was a pointless exercise, even though going through them one by one has surely told us more than nothing.

Smurf hasn't convinced me that he's town, but the likelihood of Trott being included in the game is high, so unless someone CCs there's not much we can do. I would like to see Smurf more active now though since he has no reason to hide or try to mislead. Though it's never happened yet, I'm always wary of the mod giving the mafia legitimate fake claims, or in this case, England players that aren't actually in the game.

 

[thedon5]

You need more from me when I have most posts in the thread? As I've explained a few times before I'm trying to find new and exciting ways of staying alive and avoiding getting night-killed...

This is something that stuck out for me from barmy. He could be telling the truth, or, then again, he may be using this as an excuse to stay under the radar.

Either way, it is very unusual to someone who usually posts so much (as evidenced in the previous game and in day 1) post so little now.

@Abhas: Was that due to my post just before yours? I want to hear others' opinions as well, I have slight suspicions but nothing concrete enough to get us anywhere, and most of these suspicions are known. We are barely getting half the players to post their suspicions, we need to hear more from others. Sometimes I suppose you have to encourage them so they'll post.

If it's in reply to my pressure lynch on Papa_Smurf, I gave my reasons for that in the post.

Otherwise, I don't see how I've been following anyone in particular or the crowd in general.

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I was being sarcastic that the group of 5 lynchers was too large. I've been making the point all along that it's easier to work from a small group that likely contains at least 1 scum. In Smurf's words that was a pointless exercise, even though going through them one by one has surely told us more than nothing.

Are you referring to what he said in the previous post about the no lynchers? I assume he must have slightly misunderstood the suspicions, as that certainly wasn't a very large group.

Assuming it was a fake claim though, it could possibly mean he was trying to defend someone in the group. You never know.

 

[Abhas]

@Abhas: Was that due to my post just before yours?

Yes, and, No. I was reading through the last few pages, and the one thing that caught my attention was, how neutral you're trying to be. Although there is no harm in sounding neutral, but what is the need? From what I see, mafia are more likely to 'act' than town.

Your last post, (the one above mine) just gave an impetus to my thoughts about you.

I'm not saying you're mafia, or I'm trying to lead others into thinking that you are, but I find you a bit suspicious.

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Regarding Smurf's claim, I don't think he's lying because unless the mafia know that BKB's the SK (which there wasn't any at that stage of the game), there is no point in blocking him AND killing him.
BKB got a message he was unsuccessful in the kill, which could very well mean he was blocked. I'm not sure how the actions are prioritized, but I think a SK can kill and be killed the same night, so I take BKB's word for that.

BKB not making the kill would mean either he was roleblocked, or was killed before he made the kill, but according to the writeup, what I deduced, he was killed while returning home, implying, he had the chance to complete his role, thus, the kill could go through.
Roleblock seems the most likely possibility here.
Another possibility could be a doc saving the BKB's target, but we wouldn't know unless he tells us who the target was, and in that case, only the doc would know if Smurf's telling the truth or not. (Could be both, so can't rule him out still.)

I'm not sure if anyone got that, but it was enough to convince me he's not lying.

 

[thedon5]

OK I can understand that. The fact is I don't want to impulsively go into anything unless I'm sure to a certain extent. Right now though, almost everything I'm doing is fuelled by suspicion only and I don't want to be too one-sided based on suspicions only.

I definitely got the rest of what you said, and it makes sense for sure, so I'm pretty sure Smurf is telling the truth.

With the doc situation, I think Sedition and RPHKR ruled out the possibility of the doc protecting BKB's target, though I don't remember the exact details.

 

[Sedition]

Are you referring to what he said in the previous post about the no lynchers? I assume he must have slightly misunderstood the suspicions, as that certainly wasn't a very large group.

Assuming it was a fake claim though, it could possibly mean he was trying to defend someone in the group. You never know.

Always makes me suspicious when someone jumps in to try to explain what someone else meant before they have responded.

Smurf said he agreed that there are probably 1 or 2 mafia amongst the no lynchers, but that the group was too large and it's a pointless exercise to go through them. Firstly, I disagree completely since if there are mafia there, then applying pressure can cause them to slip up, either now or in future when their stories don't match.

At most the group of no lynchers is 6, with Varun and Ste coming in after time had already expired. I don't see the last two as suspicious as the others since discussion had dried up and we were due for night anyway. BKB as we know was scum, so that just leaves at most 5. If Smurf thinks there are probably 1 or 2 mafia there, then going through them is far from pointless.

Sure you could pick any 6 players out, virtually half the game, and say there's 1 or 2 mafia there, but randomly picking them isn't the same as looking at the players who have a motive to no lynch or bandwagon a possible townie.

From my perspective as town, when people started voting no lynch so early on Day 1, I became irritated since I know how difficult it was last game as mafia to survive two consecutive 5-day long day phases. As town we should be looking to maximise our time, hence the motive for mafia to no lynch and it being a good starting point to gather evidence.

Not to mention that of the first 3 no-lynchers - User, thedon and Aditya - User was under fire by a few, thedon hardly posted anything other than "very uneventful day, no lynch" and Aditya allowed ~36 hours to pass before even checking in on Day 2. There was more to it then just "oh a list, probably scum there".

There's still 4 people that could possibly CC Smurf as far as I can tell, but until then Unlynch: Papa Smurf

Since thedon appears on both the no lynch and lynch Smurf bandwagon and thinks neither are particularly relevant..

Lynch: thedon

 

[barmyarmy]

Just to point out that if it wasn't for be you lot would have lynched off the town role blocker. Hardly anti-town play.
TheDon is making me suspicious as well but, as I've said before, hard to get a read on new players. I'm not going to apologise for being busy with work this week. It should be pretty clear from the fact I'm offline and not browsing the thread and choosing not to post that that's the case.

 

[thedon5]

Just to point out that if it wasn't for be you lot would have lynched off the town role blocker. Hardly anti-town play.
TheDon is making me suspicious as well but, as I've said before, hard to get a read on new players. I'm not going to apologise for being busy with work this week. It should be pretty clear from the fact I'm offline and not browsing the thread and choosing not to post that that's the case.

I wasn't aware, apologies if you're busy.

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There was a point in saying "Very uneventful day".

It was not just saying, oh, let's just go to night now and move on quickly. It was saying I haven't been able to get any real insight into anyone and also that I didn't really have any strong suspicions on who may be Mafia. The no lynch obviously backed this up as well. The point of the no lynch was for this reason, and, as stated earlier, also as I thought it was generally what people did on day 1, especially if they had very few suspicions early in the game.

Anyway, it appears my more frequent posting is making me seem more suspicious to others, so it appears I should probably stop now.

 

[Papa_Smurf]

Currently have a snoring girlfriend next to me and I'm reading this off an iPad. Bit difficult to say much about the game. I'd almost put money on Varun's (now BKB's) character being town, probably one without a lot to do.

I'm gonna try and remember to write something a little more productive tomorrow, just difficult as I'm constantly busy lately. Not using this as an excuse and nor am I looking to get replaced, going to try and stick it out.

All those saying I'm quiet and that I'm mafia (Ben - becoming to predictable fella), it's merely the fact I've not actually been on the forum. If I was constantly viewing the thread and not posting then that's a different matter. Again, I'm currently in a uni seminar on my iPod, so can't post much more than a brief defence, considering I'm apparently being put under 'pressure'.

Bastard.

On this no lynch situation, as far as I see when there is nothing to talk about on the second day people always target those who 'no lynch'. Would it not then be a stupid decision as a mafia to all jump on the bandwagon of a 'no lynch'?

Well Smurf is already over halfway to being lynched, need to hear some form of defence from him at least. Can't end the day with us just waiting for him to reply.

This has been treva's entire contribution to the Day. Can anyone please tell me why we're ignoring him?

 

[thedon5]

We're ignoring him since the no lynchers are supposedly more important.

 

[Papa_Smurf]

At most the group of no lynchers is 6, with Varun and Ste coming in after time had already expired. I don't see the last two as suspicious as the others since discussion had dried up and we were due for night anyway. BKB as we know was scum, so that just leaves at most 5. If Smurf thinks there are probably 1 or 2 mafia there, then going through them is far from pointless.

Sure you could pick any 6 players out, virtually half the game, and say there's 1 or 2 mafia there, but randomly picking them isn't the same as looking at the players who have a motive to no lynch or bandwagon a possible townie

My point is exactly what you outlined in your 2nd paragraph - the no lynch group is about half the game. That is a relatively large group considering the size of the game. I'm with you that there are possibly one or two mafia in the group, but to go systematically down that list seems a bit erratic to me.

I'm not sure what your reasons against thedon are as well apart from his lack of meaningful contribution. As I've just pointed above with treva, there are far worse culprits in that area, including myself. Your over-aggressiveness does seem to be sort of an act to me.

Not sure what to make of Colin. He has been strangely quiet, but he does normally play a lead role in the discussions if he's town or mafia, so I believe he has been genuinely busy.

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If your reasons are thedon's no lynch and follow-the-crowd play, then why not also pressurise User and Aditya. The former's contribution has been worse than thedon's and Aditya's post only reference his defence.

As mafia, it's really easy to pick and be aggressive against a poor town player to act as an active, contributing townie. I did the same against Aditya once when I was mafia, and your aggression reminds me so much of that. The last game we played together, you were the SK, but you were legitimately scum-hunting during the Day phase, and your approach was a lot more calm.

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I really don't get how Trott is the roleblocker. How PD has justified it Smurf? Any line in your role that indicates how he's the roleblocker. Say he has been sensational, so he has got this ability, like that. I'm not completely naive. But I believe Smurf for now until CC or a valid reason.

Erm, not really. Just says I'm a good guy, I work hard and I annoy a lot of fellow players.

 

[Sedition]

We're ignoring him since the no lynchers are supposedly more important.

You and everyone else are free to go about scumhunting any way you like. I do things my way and so should others. It just so happens that not many are doing anything, content to sit back, but finally after some pressure is applied, people like yourself and Smurf are making reasonable contributions.

@Smurf, have you been following the thread? I have pressure lynched Aditya and most people's response was that's how he always plays. Since then he's gone back into hiding and I've mentioned him numerous times.

As for User, he was already bandwagoned by others, but so far nothing has lead me to suspect him as much as the others.

 

[Sedition]

I'm not sure what your reasons against thedon are as well apart from his lack of meaningful contribution. As I've just pointed above with treva, there are far worse culprits in that area, including myself. Your over-aggressiveness does seem to be sort of an act to me.

And I put you one from the hammer for your lack of contributions too. If treva doesn't return any time soon, he will find himself in the same situation. I'm not completely stuck on one area and I'm more than happy to lynch someone else if others present a strong case, but until then, I work with my suspicions. Neither Aditya or thedon had contributed much worthwhile until I went after them, so there definitely weren't far worse culprits like you say.

 

[RPHKR]

Not a good play at all from treva. He has been too inactive and getting excuses every day.

Aditya, BKB, Manly and yeah absolutely treva haven't posted since the claim of Smurf.