Also, the England selectors see the first test the same as me and Matt, Anderson picked over Hoggard. Hopefully Jimmy'll prove you doubters wrong
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I looked at the respective records at Lords :-
Anderson @ Lords : 14 wkts @ 25.21
Hoggard @ Lords : 37 wkts @ 31.08
Surprised me, I was looking mainly to see what Hoggard was like at Lords. And if you look more closely at who Anderson played at Lords :-
Zimbabwe 5/73 & 0/65
South Africa 2/90
India 5/42 & 2/83
So near half his wickets are against Zimbabwe. Take those away though and he would return 9 wkts @ 23.89. His average at Lords is almost entirely based on that one Test performance. His last Test against New Zealand returned figures of 0/54 & 1/99 so let's pray the Anderson that can bowl turns up, not the one that can't. I'd have chanced Hoggard, he will be fighting hard for his place now he's been dropped for a couple of Tests and he's more consistent.
And for a sense of completeness, here's their figures vs New Zealand
Anderson vs New Zealand : 8 wkts @ 35.38
Hoggard vs New Zealand : 27 wkts @ 34.74
Not much in it, we can't afford Anderson to get it completely wrong and go 1-0 down. I am hoping and hoping we bat first, post 400+ and then Vaughan will have to make a brave decision if to give Anderson the new ball with the two likely outcomes - a flying start for the kiwis or a good start by Anderson. Whch is more likely? Does Anderson even know?