I think this test will go draw
Because as i discussed before in this thread with most of you guys. The spinners in Hauritz & Smith (at this stage at least) is highly unlikely to run through a proper batting side on 4th & 5th day wearing track - which is the main role of a spinner in a tests.
We shouldn't be carried away by AUS performances againts woeful -in turmoil Pakistan of the last 6-8 months. Haurtiz taking a 5-wicket hauls vs them - plus North (his 6 wicket haul reminder me of Katich's 6 wicket hauls Zimbabwe in 2003) is a joke. They cant do that againts stronger batting teams. Plus even Watson who has been in piss poor bowling form since the NZ tour - suddenly taken a 5 for
Variety just for the sake of it - isn't good enough if its not quality variety. Which as a spinner Hauritz & Smith (as yet) doesn't offer. As i said they are highly unlikely to run through a side on a 4th or 5th day wearing track.
If Australia play 4 seamers when all are fit in Hilfenhaus/Bollinger/Johnson/Harris or Sildde + Watson as back-up. In those same 4th & 5th day conditions in Hilfy & Siddle/Watson we got fast-bowlers who can reverse swing the old ball @ pace which makes up for the lack of a front line-spinner to exploit the rough patches quite well. Plus Johnson with his raw pace even on flat pitches will test batsmen always.
If the pitch is good for the seamers, then he comes into the equation, if not then you don't miss a trick with spin.
South Africa throughout the 1990s adopted this almost all the time with very good success.
Plus ATS i'm fairly confident that the pace options AUS have, are matured enough as a bowling unit. That we wont see too much wayward/expensive spells like we saw in the Ashes last year.
Also im not sure what you mean "by our pace attack is wayward at times and not draw much movement from the ball and/or pitch". Except Siddle, all of Bollinger, Hilfy, Watson, Harris, Johnson have proven once they get the right conditions that they can move the ball in the air - or off the pitch.
You can only play and perform against the opposition you have been presented with. Why can't Hauritz be given a decent chance against better teams with a 'proper' batting line up before having his spot challenged?
And you were proposing that Harris or Siddle could replace Hauritz. I don't see how Harris or Siddle could be more effective than Hauritz has been on a 4th and 5th day wearing track (based on their performances at Test level so far and considering that Harris seems more like the type of bowler that builds pressure and lets the bowler at the other end take wickets rather than ripping through batting line ups - his first class figures probably don't do him justice). Here's a comparison of Hauritz and Siddle in the fourth innings of Test matches (as of this post):
Hauritz:
17 wickets at an average of 21.76 with a SR of 46.2.
Siddle:
12 wickets at an average of 30.25 with a SR of 76.1.
As angryangy said referring to Watson,
I don't know much about this, but I don't think we have bowlers that are of Donald/Pollock calibre.
How do we know that any more than we know Hauritz won't be effective against a 'proper' batting line up?
I meant that Australia's pace attack (except Hilfenhaus) can lose that ability to draw much movement from the ball and/or pitch too often to convince me that it's worth playing a 4-man pace attack.
Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | Cricinfo.com
Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | Cricinfo.com