Kiwis are rightly the warmest of warm favourites, but they've shown hints of vulnerability this year. I'm not convinced with their centre pairing & St Daniel had a fairly ordinary trot of form at the start of the Tri Nations.
Think the Frence have a chance if their front three can get a foothold against the kiwis, but they came second against us at Twickers where we conspired to butcher several tries.
England's chances largely rest on our group game v the yarps. If we lose that we'd have to (probably) face Oz & NZ in consecutive games to make the final, which would be something of a stretch for our 2007 vintage. If we win though (Catt must start at 12 for this to happen, Farrell seems a liability in the senior code) a final spot might not be beyond us if we get a bit of rain in our (probable) semi v the French.
That's almost certainly pie in the sky though, really. Saffies will start as favourites against us & maybe even Samoa will fancy their chances of an upset. They were the better team for 60 minutes in the last WC before they ran out of steam.
If you're looking for a shock, I think Italy could beat the Sweaties & Argentina definitely have a chance against an Ireland team who seriously lack quality in depth.