Ashes to Ashes Mafia - Endgame (SK win)

[Varun]

You guys don't get logic. There are two people dying this night, it's pretty obvious, unless someone is bulletproof or we have a doc/roleblocker. Nobody was killed at the night just because mafia poisoned instead. It's nothing to be happy about. It's still LYLO. We have to nail a mafia. And I'm not one, unfortunately.

Abhas

What would "full of activity" mean to you? It's just a figure of speech indicating activity. He tracked you, you were seen near thedon. Then there is a clear reference of a poisoning.

It means more than one person was around thedon.

The thing is Abhas is leaving holes in his analyses almost as if he is doing it deliberately. That's what most mafia players would do in endgame situations.

Lynch: Abhas

Swirler is most probably the remaining mafia. I don't see how I've played that poorly. I've been regular with analyses, just that I've been busy with college. You people have clung to the almost-an-excuse argument.

 

[thedon5]

OK well I looked through RPHKR/Abhas's posts... Abhas and Varun have been battling the whole time trying to get each other lynched. This is still happening. Now because of this I highly doubt they are Mafia working together, unless that is some pretty top class play from them staging such a battle. Another thing I noticed though was Abhas not getting suspicious of swirler even once. Other than RPHKR's post quoting all of swirler's posts, zilch.

That all but confirms swirler as Mafia to me and means he is working with one of them. Anyone remember User's possible investigation just before he died? This was swirler's reasoning:

The only thing that I can think of that keeps coming up, is User2010 possibly investigating me, and coming-up with a positive mafia role. I already answered that, also it's more likely that he investigated WC.

Now that WC has come up as town, he is certain to be Mafia.

I looked through Varun's posts. No real suspicions.

I also looked through swirler's posts. He seems to have been playing the cards close to his chest all game. Hard to judge but he had equal suspicions of both Varun and Abhas. Mind you, he was one of the leaders along with me in lynching RPHKR. However, for Varun he was quite trusting of him. He readily accepted his claim and didn't seem to question it and other than a few token suspicions he was seemingly defending him if anything. He was seen as a solid and active player throughout the game and at times seemed to be using it to protect Varun. Then today after the poisoning he finally accepted that Varun may have been lying and was suspicious of him. Again to perhaps seem like they weren't part of a team.

For me though we lynch Varun or Abhas today, the remaining townie(s) can lynch off swirler tomorrow. Still leaning towards Varun and after going through swirler's posts I'm leaning heavily towards Varun.

Swirler mentioned hated townies and millers as possible roles in his write-up analyses. Now possibly he did that to accommodate for his fake claim, and maybe decided to give the miller claim to Abhas. On the topic of write-ups, I don't really see Varun's role mentioned in the night write-ups... Abhas on the other hand has claimed a role without a night action and hasn't had to accommodate for the write-ups or explaining his night actions. I don't really see any mention of a bulletproof in night 1, when you also consider the fact that Abhas said he thought that RPHKR was targeted in night 1.

Need Simon's input. Some solid analysis of your own of the three of them and their tells and explanations, and don't base it solely off your tracker results. I have definite thoughts but I am quite lost.

 

[barmyarmy]

Vote Count

Varun - 1 (Abhas)
Abhas - 1 (Varun)

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

5? You hear that? Shouldn't take 12 hours between posts...

 

[Varun]

So you think swirler's mafia and want to lynch either me or Abhas....that's some pretty good logic.

Wait, I just realized mafia have won this, almost. Even if we get swirler or Abhas (I'm sure these are mafia ) down now, we will probably have two night kills and 2 players left with one mafia and one town. Of course, it might not be the case. But that's what it seems to be.

 

[thedon5]

Why do you think two night kills? I think there could be a Mafia killer with condition and a Mafia poisoner, so there's a good chance it'll be Simon, another townie and a Mafia member tomorrow... That is when swirler should be lynched off. I'm not fully convinced there is a serial killer due to the very irregular kill pattern and a Mafia roleblocker seems unlikely to me too (Simon should have been blocked then). So two killing roles would make sense as well, and hence why it's not game over for us yet with just two townies left.

Yes, we need to see who is Mafia between you and Abhas to see who is in a team with swirler. Better to sort out such things now rather than tomorrow when you'd have a better chance to defend yourself. Even if I am poisoned I'd like the town to win so Simon having the clear target in swirler tomorrow should allow him to make the obvious decision in lynching swirler and win the game

 

[CremerCurrans]

Alright well firstly I'll claim, and then I can analyse the rest of the discussion.

I'm David Attenborough - Vanilla townie

I thought I was going to a nature convention, so at first I was out of place, but quickly fitted in due to being well know, and people were interested to hear about me knowledge of animals & plants.

I don't have the knowledge that others in the game do, so I've just had to work on bad play from others to try and help the town.

 

[CremerCurrans]

*my

The last line is not in my role, just explaining why I've played the way I have.

It's quite clear that not all of what the don has posted is true. Some of it he's just using as a trap for certain people to see how they respond, but other parts just appear to be him trying to control everyone, so he can set the agenda. Planning what simon should do tomorrow seems strange to me.

My opinion hasn't changed on Varun & Abhas, could be avoiding the two being connected.

FOS: The don, Varun & Abhas

 

[thedon5]

Attenbourough is a weak claim and so is vanilla townie. Attenborough has nothing to do with Ashes and your given role description doesn't either.

I'd expect you to have worked harder on a claim considering how solid your play was this game but you seem to have dropped the ball with it.

100% Mafia to me. Still you do see his solid gameplay shine through as he isn't giving up his partner, really well played mate.

Btw while I have made a couple of traps in this game, now is hardly the time to do that, it's straight Abhas or Varun now and I want to hear what Simon says. I know the game fully and it's quite clear one of them are your partner, it's just a time for discussions now and not traps.

We are at LyLo, however if there is only one death at night there will be three guys, Simon, swirler and one of Abhas and Varun. Leaving a 100% Mafia in swirler for Simon and the remaining member, hopefully town, to lynch immediately, meaning an almost definite town win. This is in the case that I was posioned and I will die. I still want the town to win in that case and that will happen if swirler is kept alive and lynched in the next day. If it is Simon that was poisoned and not me, same thing, I go in and put in the lynch on the swirler and so does the remaining townie and we win.

To me it seems like the better idea, we can lynch swirler, but I feel lynching Abhas/Varun is a better idea. While I am not trying to talk down Simon's abilities, he is a new player and new players tend to be a lot more gullible so it can only take a second, for experienced players like one of Abhas/Varun and a bit of inactivity from one of them to sway Simon to put in the wrong lynch which will end it immediately. Even if I'm not alive, I still want the town to win and I feel this is the best way that this can happen. It's up to me and Simon to vote, Abhas and Varun will go for each other and swirler won't vote so we have to agree.

Really wish Simon had waited before disclosing his result, we could've caught out Varun saying he investigated someone else last night! Another thing to note though, why would Varun investigate me? I don't remember him being suspicious of me, yet he investigates me... Instead of Abhas for example (unless he investigated him earlier)?

Really need to hear from the rest of the guys, especially Simon!

 

[CremerCurrans]

Attenbourough is a weak claim and so is vanilla townie. Attenborough has nothing to do with Ashes and your given role description doesn't either.

It must have some link to "Ashes" otherwise Barmyarmy wouldn't of included it.

I'd expect you to have worked harder on a claim considering how solid your play was this game but you seem to have dropped the ball with it.

100% Mafia to me. Still you do see his solid gameplay shine through as he isn't giving up his partner, really well played mate.

Btw while I have made a couple of traps in this game, now is hardly the time to do that, it's straight Abhas or Varun now and I want to hear what Simon says. I know the game fully and it's quite clear one of them are your partner, it's just a time for discussions now and not traps.

We are at LyLo, however if there is only one death at night there will be three guys, Simon, swirler and one of Abhas and Varun. Leaving a 100% Mafia in swirler for Simon and the remaining member, hopefully town, to lynch immediately, meaning an almost definite town win. This is in the case that I was posioned and I will die. I still want the town to win in that case and that will happen if swirler is kept alive and lynched in the next day. If it is Simon that was poisoned and not me, same thing, I go in and put in the lynch on the swirler and so does the remaining townie and we win.

To me it seems like the better idea, we can lynch swirler, but I feel lynching Abhas/Varun is a better idea. While I am not trying to talk down Simon's abilities, he is a new player and new players tend to be a lot more gullible so it can only take a second, for experienced players like one of Abhas/Varun and a bit of inactivity from one of them to sway Simon to put in the wrong lynch which will end it immediately. Even if I'm not alive, I still want the town to win and I feel this is the best way that this can happen. It's up to me and Simon to vote, Abhas and Varun will go for each other and swirler won't vote so we have to agree.

Really wish Simon had waited before disclosing his result, we could've caught out Varun saying he investigated someone else last night! Another thing to note though, why would Varun investigate me? I don't remember him being suspicious of me, yet he investigates me... Instead of Abhas for example (unless he investigated him earlier)?

Really need to hear from the rest of the guys, especially Simon!

You've said it yourself, it looks like there is only two mafia and no SK. Shouldn't you be taking that into consideration? Causes more problems if a town member is lynched.

Your doing it again. Putting suspicion on me, with out any substantial proof.

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* You're

 

[thedon5]

Two Mafia and three townies. We lynch a townie and it's game over, yes, it is MyLo. However, that's why we are looking further into it and trying to wheedle the other Mafia member out 100%. They will surely be trying to find the other guilty and will give us a hand in making the right decision in who to lynch. Are you suggesting we lynch you instead of one of them? That is the alternative. You are making that seem like a better idea now tbh. That will definitely be the plan if there is a time limit and we haven't made a decision yet. First we need Simon here, and Abhas and Varun to have more of a battle though!

I am almost 100% certain Abhas and Varun can't be working together, that leaves you. You have made a poor claim and of late your gameplay has been quite poor. There's not much more proof than can be obtained other than you saying "I'm Mafia", which you may as well say now seeing how clear it is.

 

[barmyarmy]

You lot have produced less than one page of posts in 48 hours.
It will be night in 24 hours and I don't care who it benefits or disadvantages.

 

[Abhas]

Yikes. Sorry.. will post when I reach home. Work commitments.. Just a bit pissed.

 

[Varun]

Instead of Abhas for example (unless he investigated him earlier)?

Yes I did...CG, Abhas, Ste, you. That's how it goes.

 

[SiriusBlack]

edited

 

[Abhas]

I had a long, hard look at the writeups, and have come to realize, since we are 5 remaining, and everyone agrees there are 2 mafia, we shouldn't forget the existence of the SK. It was well documented in the writeups of the initial days, and this means, town cannot win.

It is a two way battle between the mafia and the SK. There is no no other result possible. Let's have a look:
2 town
2 mafia
1 SK

1 town is poisoned, and will die tonight, that leaves town in a minority, which essentially boils down to a fight between the SK and the Mafia.
Even if we get the mafia lynched today, there is no way town can win.
If we even consider the SK was poisoned, not the town, that doesn't help things because the town still doesn't get a majority vote.

I'm also not very keen to believe thedon's claim either. I know you are suspicious of me, and would surely lynch me for not believing your claim, but, in all honesty, I really think you're lying here.

I suggest we lay off our lynches for the time being. There are a couple of things I need to ask Swirler, and that'll make things clearer for all of us. Let thedon and swirler come online.
We have enough time to make a fruitful decision during the day.