Five bowler is a mistake overseas, the theories behind the case for them are lacking substance. If one of a quartet isn't performing that isn't a problem, it is when two or more aren't. Part of the problem in this Test was England are so stuck with having to play a spinner that they do so regardless of how much help they will get from the wicket.
So in this Test Finn did well but Bresnan struggled, picking up four tailenders' wickets, and Swann didn't take a wicket in 38 overs. England could have played five bowlers in this Test and gotten away with it as the bowling faced was not very threatening, as 505 and 163/2 would clearly indicate.
But for me picking five bowlers is also an excuse for poor selection (policy) It's like having an extra guess at who is good enough and who will perform. Have enough guesses and you are more likely to be right, the fact is England need to KNOW who their best (3-4) bowlers are and pick them. Bresnan does not look Test quality, just another good county player but not got anything special, Anderson is too often inconsistent when he needs to lead the attack, Swann is good but perhaps has done too much for his own good that he is expected to take wickets on unhelpful pitches, while Finn is inexperienced and that may tell against better opposition.
Who would make way for this fifth bowler and how weak would that leave the batting? If we assume Collingwood comes back, Morgan and say Bell make way, then the top six, assuming changing the keeper is not an issue at the moment, would be :
Strauss (c)
Cook
Trott
Pietersen
Collingwood
Prior (wk)
I know a lot of people think that looks strong on paper, ON PAPER it does, but England were bowled out for less than 200 FIVE times down under in 06/07, for 81 in Sri Lanka and 51 in West Indies with a side that looked that strong on paper :
1st Test vs Australia 06/07 : 157 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, Collingwood, PIETERSEN, Flintoff, Jones, Giles, Hoggard, Harmison, ANDERSON
2nd Test vs Australia 06/07 : 129 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, Collingwood, PIETERSEN, Flintoff, Jones, Giles, Hoggard, Harmison, ANDERSON
4th Test vs Australia 06/07 : 159 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, Collingwood, PIETERSEN, Flintoff, Read, Mahmood, Harmison, Panesar, Hoggard
4th Test vs Australia 06/07 : 161 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, Collingwood, PIETERSEN, Flintoff, Read, Mahmood, Harmison, Panesar, Hoggard
5th Test vs Australia 06/07 : 147 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, PIETERSEN, Collingwood, Flintoff, Panesar, Read, Mahmood, Harmison, Anderson
3rd Test vs Sri Lanka 07/08 : 81 all out > COOK, Vaughan, BELL, PIETERSEN, Collingwood, Bopara, PRIOR, Sidebottom, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar
1st Test vs W.Indies 08/09 : 51 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, BELL, PIETERSEN, Collingwood, Flintoff, PRIOR, Broad, Sidebottom, Harmison, Panesar
Much the same batting, arguably having say Prior, Broad and Swann in the mid-lower order makes it a bit stronger, but they are just as capable if not more so of getting out cheaply as any batsman. And the problem down under was the extra bowler didn't make our attack any less pedestrian or toothless. We don't have a top quality fast bowler, unless Finn happens to establish himself. No point throwing medium-fast swing bowlers or seamers at the aussies down under in numbers, the bowlers need to be good and not just numbers of. Anderson should in theory be our lead bowler, he has taken five wickets down under at 82.60. Bresnan, Broad etc haven't played there and will find it equally tough (first time/overall) unless we are to take Panesar, Mahmood, Harmison and Hoggard who got caned regardless of experience.
Five bowlers can work well in England, it doesn't so much overseas where you generally need to make big totals and toil for wickets. Sure England won in South Africa in 04/05 with five bowlers, but one of those was Flintoff and another Jones, with Hoggard having a stonking series. But aside from that tour England last won a noteworthy overseas series in Pakistan/Sri Lanka back in 00/01
South Africa 04/05 (W2-1)
Hoggard 26 wkts
Flintoff 23 wkts
Hoggard 15 wkts
Giles 11 wkts
Harmison 9 wkts
South Africa 09/10 (D1-1)
Swann 21 wkts
Anderson 16 wkts
Broad 13 wkts
Onions 8 wkts
England hung on for a draw twice and in the series, not making enough runs even with the extra batsman.
1st Test vs South Africa 09/10 (DRAW) : 228/9 > STRAUSS, COOK, ANDERSON, TROTT, PIETERSEN, Collingwood, BELL, PRIOR, Broad, SWANN, Onions
4th Test vs South Africa 09/10 (LOST) : 180 all out & 169 all out > STRAUSS, COOK, TROTT, PIETERSEN, Collingwood, BELL, PRIOR, Broad, SWANN, Sidebottom, ANDERSON
England don't make the runs they should often enough. Those are pretty much the players England would take down under, probably Finn in for Sidebottom, but I would expect worse results if we play five bowlers. England did well to get a draw in South Africa, on face value, but to collapse for less than 200 in both innings in the last Test was a massive letdown. Bell and Collingwood scored 82 between them 1st innings, Collingwood made 71 2nd innings, but Strauss, Cook, Trott and Pietersen made 76 runs between them in the match.
Strauss had a rest after the series, Collingwood is having one now, but I feel Cook, Bell and Pietersen could do with one, especially Pietersen for obvious reasons. Cook has boosted his form with 173 in Bangladesh, but against the aussies and saffers he scored 509 runs @ 31.81 and that was boosted by a hundred vs the saffers and 95 vs the aussies, those boosting it by a whole 10 runs : 10,6,95,32,0,30,30,10,9,15,12,118,65,55,21,1. Like most England batsmen these days, he does enough just often enough to keep his average up including making hay against the weak opposition who we play far too frequently for my liking. Every other series seems to be windies, kiwis or bangles which to me contradicts the word "Test"
. Be much easier to just wheel out Fred for 1 last hurrah. He'll be fit by then, could get some games in for Lancs and it's just a matter of persuading him to come back for 1 last series. 
