Since his haul on Australia day Johnson has looked pretty tame and Tait surely would beat him for a spot on bowling alone. But Johnson is an excellent outfielder and better batsman than Tait, so that is something for the selectors to weigh up. Tait would be my choice, since we probably won't have Lee. When Lee plays he is our striker, but if we don't have Lee we need Tait to play that role.
In other news, Lee will be given until next Tuesday to prove his fitness, and Hayden is aiming to be fit for the first real match vs Scotland. I really hope Australia doesn't take Lee, Symonds and Gilchrist when none of those 3 will be available for the opening matches. That smacks of arrogance and over confidence. In my opinion we need 13 or 14 fit players ready to play match 1 vs Scotland - not 11 or 12 (12 if Hayden makes it).
I would replace Lee as he is the most doubtful, even though in my opinion he is the most crucial of those guys. The other guy I might replace is Gilchrist - with our injury problems, he needs to be there from Game 1 and if he doesn't want to be - replace him. Haddin is only a marginal downgrade in my opinion and we need the bodies for the opening round of the tournament.