Puddle Mafia 04 - Endgame Mafia (barmyarmy, BKB, RPHKR win)

[ved_]

Alright what I see in thedon5's case here is a classic case where he got caught up in his own net. Maybe the News Of The World Reporter is that guy Mazhar Majeed, who apparently paid Salman Butt & co for the spot fixing. In that case, he was to certainly be mafia.

On the other hand, there's this guy ste, who hasn't really given me pro-town vibes. Still need to get something from him which is solid towny. Or, both the dudes can be mafia, which is certainly a possibility. Either way, I'm keeping a strong eye on both of them.

FOS:thedon5, ste mc efc

 

[thedon5]

No matter what, he knew he would carry on. He was in charge of it all. Nothing could take him down.

A line from the same write-up as the one mentioning me, and a clear reference to the bulletproof. I've quoted that post so many times, so I can't believe it took me this long to look back at this. No other role fits this description. There is clearly a bulletproof in the game, so Ste is telling the truth. Further proof I am also telling the truth, and I am not just Mafia partners with Ste.

Oh and my thoughts on the write-up, the first line is the cult, the second is possibly a bulletproof of some sort, the third is the cop and the longer paragraph is the mason.

Here, I mentioned that that line from the write-up was my role. This is actually the first time I've analysed a write-up, proof I did it for a reason. The other parts were just copying what others had already said, to cloak my mention of the cop as I didn't want people to start thinking I was cop at the risk of me getting nightkilled. Also, that seems a bit early to be making up roles, isn't it? I've never played as Mafia before, but it seems early to me. Anyway, may not be the strongest evidence, but I felt I had to share this as it is definitely something, and I am going through my earlier posts now as others seem to have forgotten what I have said.

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Alright what I see in thedon5's case here is a classic case where he got caught up in his own net. Maybe the News Of The World Reporter is that guy Mazhar Majeed, who apparently paid Salman Butt & co for the spot fixing. In that case, he was to certainly be mafia.

On the other hand, there's this guy ste, who hasn't really given me pro-town vibes. Still need to get something from him which is solid towny. Or, both the dudes can be mafia, which is certainly a possibility. Either way, I'm keeping a strong eye on both of them.

FOS:thedon5, ste mc efc

Not even going to consider Colin as Mafia? As expected.

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Interesting, so was yours, as both I and I think it was Colin mentioned there should be a doc... There's been a death every day as well, suggesting you haven't protected the right guys possibly, or are not the doc at all. Something to think about but we'll leave it for day 6.

Lynch: barmyarmy

I'd rather we lynch him than User, he hasn't been his usual self leading discussions since day 1 and his results don't convince me at all. IIRC he also said yesterday that he thought User was most likely telling the truth, and that he believed him. So why would he investigate him and not me, or someone else even? Problem is we're not going to know whether he's telling the truth or not even if we lynch him so we have no idea about whether to go after the the other of the two.

Also, in the case that both are town, it will be a lot more costly to lynch User than Colin, as the cop at this stage is less effective, as at this stage you're a lot more likely to pick out the godfather.

@treva: Apologies, I see you wrote the exact same thing as me pretty much before me, I guess it just flew over my head when I first read it.

For Aditya. The most recent post I made about my suspicions of RPHKR, also my lynch on Colin, which was late as User had already been lynched.

 

[ved_]

Well, your reaction to his guilty on you just doesn't seem town.

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And you saving ste mc efc is just making my suspicion stronger. He could be an unkillable mafia or something.

 

[barmyarmy]

@thedon - the cop refers to me and as you said, you're the one who pointed out the bulletproof. Subtly leading the town to set up ste's claim.
"Nothing could take him down" is often used an over-confident godfather indicator.

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And you saving ste mc efc is just making my suspicion stronger. He could be an unkillable mafia or something.

Excellent point. With a serial killer that's entirely possible.

 

[thedon5]

Well, your reaction to his guilty on you just doesn't seem town.

Explain further please. Also, are you going to consider the post I just made where Ste is telling the truth?

I've never actually had to make a defence before, this is the first time, so please keep in mind it won't be the solid textbook town response. Colin on the other hand is experienced so if he is Mafia he knows exactly how to reply to my posts to get me lynched. I don't want to hide behind this new player thing, but it is a fact and Colin is an excellent player.

Another thing is, you all seem to be going after me for believing my result on Ste that he is town. Colin wasn't looking to go after me before this, it seems his result has swayed him. His main point other than that is about my defence of Ste, which makes perfect sense looking at my result. You could accuse him of the same thing, looking at his result (if he even has one!) too closely. So I see no reason why everyone should accuse me of working with Ste purely because I am defending him.

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@thedon - the cop refers to me and as you said, you're the one who pointed out the bulletproof. Subtly leading the town to set up ste's claim.
"Nothing could take him down" is often used an over-confident godfather indicator.

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Excellent point. With a serial killer that's entirely possible.

The cop refers to Paul Collingwood? Running out of ideas a bit here, is this mention of the write-up completely dismantling you or something? Paul Collingwood doesn't know that where he works is a joke. Fact.

I wasn't the first to point out the bulletproof. Guess who it was? It was you pretty much. It's all from page 26.

Colin: Last bit implies some kind of immunity maybe.


BKB: The second one might refer to someone with un-die-able qualities. It could be referring to a godfather but I think its someone who has lynch/night kill immunity. The most logical one would be the latter and who hasnt been FOS'ed or anything. I am not too sure about this part at all.

 

[barmyarmy]

The cop refers to Paul Collingwood? Running out of ideas a bit here, is this mention of the write-up completely dismantling you or something? Paul Collingwood doesn't know that where he works is a joke. Fact.

I wasn't the first to point out the bulletproof. Guess who it was? It was you pretty much. It's all from page 26.

Colin: Last bit implies some kind of immunity maybe.


BKB: The second one might refer to someone with un-die-able qualities. It could be referring to a godfather but I think its someone who has lynch/night kill immunity. The most logical one would be the latter and who hasnt been FOS'ed or anything. I am not too sure about this part at all.

The bit about the NOTW obviously refers to you. As we said there are two cops.
Regarding bulletproof it's one interpretation; as Zhuorb says though with an SK it can refer to a mafia member. GF immune to SK is a regular variation.

 

[thedon5]

Last thing I've realised before I go to bed. These are all the results so far as posted by User.

User results -

Tracked Varun/BKBv2 N1 - Found User around Varun (Hence, I knew there was a BD)
Tracked Colin N2 - Found Colin around Abhas
Tracked Smurf N3 - Found Smurf around no one
Tracked Ste N4 - Unable to use my role

Colin's results -

Night 1: Investigated Sedition (blocked)
Night 2: Investigated Abhas (town)
Night 3: Investigated Sedition (town)
Night 4: Investigated User (town)

Don's results -

Night 1: Investigated Abhas (town)
Night 2: Investigated Sedition (town)
Night 3: Investigated Smurf (Unsuccessful)
Night 4: Investigated Ste (town)

Now I'm far too tired to go back and check, but I remember User mentioning ALL of his results until AFTER I had posted mine. Colin posted his after mine as well.

One thing is common with both. First, user mentions the bus driver. He doesn't need to be the tracker to know this as it was mentioned in the write-up. The second one is to confirm Colin's claim of cop. The third one is to make Smurf seem as if he is lying. Colin's results are the similar to mine and he also makes sure he shows that User is town. Again, very easy results to lie about based on the information which has been divulged by the real cop so far. Sounds like it all could be a well orchestrated plan by two Mafia buddies. Especially when you consider both are good players, every chance this is a real possibility.

So, I am too tired to check, but I'll leave a FOS on it. FOS: barmyarmy, User2010. I'll check in the morning if no-one else does in the next 12 hours.

I wouldn't be against lynching either of them tbh, since I think we've come to the conclusion we have to make a lynch now. Colin maybe more than User.

This is the post from day 5 where I come to realise Colin has an easy lie set up for him. My role claim was before his, so he could've easily copied my results and put them into his claim. And that is exactly what he did.

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The bit about the NOTW obviously refers to you. As we said there are two cops.
Regarding bulletproof it's one interpretation; as Zhuorb says though with an SK it can refer to a mafia member. GF immune to SK is a regular variation.

Well from my angle, I don't think there are two cops, there is one.

Going back to me going through the write-ups. There is no mention at all of two cops in any of the write-ups. Again, Paul Collingwood is not mentioned either and there is definitely no mention of a cricketer or former captain being a cop. There is, however, a mention of me being a town cop, not you.

 

[barmyarmy]

Missing one rather obvious point. If I was mafia I wouldn't need to make up cop results. I would know who was town...

 

[thedon5]

OK, so let me get this straight now. You believe Ste to be the Godfather, correct? Then what am I if there is no roleblocker in the game?

 

[barmyarmy]

OK, so let me get this straight now. You believe Ste to be the Godfather, correct? Then what am I if there is no roleblocker in the game?

As I've said (talk about reading people's posts ) on the previous page, I believe that Smurf was the roleblocker, that you are the rolecop and that ste is an SK-proof godfather. I'm not totally convinced about ste; prob only 80% but I'm struggling to see who else the GF could be. On you I'm 100%.

 

[thedon5]

Oops, sorry.

And right, you are 100% all because of your result? Sounds like you too are looking too deeply into your result, if you have one that is.

Anyway as I said I'm going to keep back through my posts to point out things others seemingly haven't seen.

 

[barmyarmy]

Well unless you're about to drop your doc claim and claim miller instead I don't see how I can be anything other than 100%. The bus driver is dead.

 

[thedon5]

I reckon there's a good chance Ste is Mafia.

Sounds like me defending Ste right? This was the the day before I got the result on him.

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Well unless you're about to drop your doc claim and claim miller instead I don't see how I can be anything other than 100%. The bus driver is dead.

Huh? I'm not doc?

Even if there are two cops, you could definitely be a random cop. I see no reason why not.

But I think there is just the one cop and you are making up stories.

 

[barmyarmy]

You seemed to dismiss your innocent result on him rather quickly which makes me a bit suspicious. As I said with my result on User, me being naive or him being GF were both possibles.
An innocent result doesn't always mean innocent but a guilty result almost always means guilty. Only exception is with insane cop and on that basis Abhas and Sedition had to me mafia and weren't.

 

[thedon5]

May as well, but I will likely be killed or something I guess.

I am the News of the World Reporter. Basically the cop. I know it may be hard to believe as so far it's only been players, but remember the line in the write-up, "He knew where he worked was a joke"? That's the News of the World, not BCCI or PCB or anything.

On night 1, I investigated Abhas. He was town-aligned. On night 2, I investigated Sedition. He was town-aligned (and hence why I stopped going after him at all). By then I still knew I may be insane. So I went for a guy I was pretty sure was Mafia on day 3, so I went for Papa_Smurf. I was unsuccessful. However, with the death of Abhas at night, I now know I am not insane. So Sedition is 100% town.

I stopped going after Smurf also because of the roleblock. I knew he was telling the truth about his role to some extent, that he was a roleblocker, so I decided to leave him alone and then go after the other guys who could've been Mafia.

One thing I've come to realise is that all these roles are the same as PD's previous games. So far I'm pretty sure there hasn't even been an insane cop in any Puddle Mafia, so Smurf mentioning a jailkeeper is strange to me.

Fact is, there hasn't been a town roleblocker in any Puddle Mafia. There was, however, a prostitute.

So on this basis, Lynch: Papa_Smurf.

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I just highlighted the post where he said he roleblocked me, and was successful?

The fact that you are still going after me makes me believe that you may still be Mafia.

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The way I shifted my suspicions is more indicative of me thinking more about your claim. I also have realised that one of you or Smurf is Mafia.

The line about Stuart Broad being good at reading batsmen is important, as it seems all of PD's messages had something like that in them.

This was mine : "You work for a paper than mostly likes to make up stories. However if you drill enough holes, eventually you'll strike oil."

I don't remember Smurf mentioning one...

This was my role-claim post, explaining everything. Again, very fully explained and not real attempt at making stories. Everything was done for a reason.

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Assuming all claims so far are legitimate, it means that two of the four remaining are Mafia. Of those, I reckon it's most likely to be Ste and RPHKR. Maybe barmy too. I more think he's Mafia since some of the other guys who have played more suspiciously have ended up being town. His behaviour has been mostly town, but by the process of elimination it could be him that is Mafia.

I'm in favour of a mass claim now between the remaining four. I wasn't really at the start as it would've completely given away my role, but now it would be a good idea for day 5.

Another post where I accuse both Ste and RPHKR.

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You seemed to dismiss your innocent result on him rather quickly which makes me a bit suspicious. As I said with my result on User, me being naive or him being GF were both possibles.
An innocent result doesn't always mean innocent but a guilty result almost always means guilty. Only exception is with insane cop and on that basis Abhas and Sedition had to me mafia and weren't.

What? When did I dismiss my innocent result on him? Making things up again, huh?

I have never dismissed my result on him. As I just said, that was BEFORE I got the result on him. I was going after him a lot, then investigated him and stopped, though still I kept the view there is a slight chance he is Mafia.

Guilty always means guilty if you are cop. You aren't, and that is what I'm trying to get at.

I investigated you and was blocked, so not much I could do. I suppose you saw it coming, as clearly treva said "the investigative roles should investigate each other". So you blocked me so that you were able to come out with this, as I wouldn't have been able to get any result on you. Good plan, I must say.

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Anyway, I think that's enough of my past posts for now. I guess I'll stay awake a bit longer in case some of the others come online as I'm fully sure I'll be lynched off by the time I wake up if I go to bed now. Getting 12 here.

Still yet to hear from BKB, Ste and RPHKR.

Zhuorb is likely to join the bandwagon, Aditya wants to lynch me, and seeing as I've been going after him, RPHKR will try to lynch me too. So that should be enough.

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Pretty much game over for the town I guess. that's me gone now, Ste out tomorrow, and two nights in between. Four kills in total, more than enough time to get the remaining townies. Tomorrow Colin will say he got a guilty result on Ste too and that'll be that.