Expert Cop Mafia 2 - Endgame Mafia win

[hedger_14]

Damn you ARay. I had worked that out but if I posted that, I'd be killed tonight so I guess I'm the first casualty.

I was going to point it out tomorrow had I not died and it wouldn't have mattered if I died cause it wouldn't have changed anything.

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And yes, you make sense. That's what I did with everybody and only managed to clear myself so I just said I couldn't work it out. I had hoped you wouldn't do that though.

I thought you'd be smart enough to notice I lied though to save myself for tonight.

 

[ARay]

Damn you ARay. I had worked that out but if I posted that, I'd be killed tonight so I guess I'm the first casualty.

I was going to point it out tomorrow had I not died and it wouldn't have mattered if I died cause it wouldn't have changed anything.

I think being transparent is important. It is highly possible other townies would not work it out as such and the mafia might be smart enough to do so.
That way we would be stuck with no information.

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Well if it makes you feel any better. It is either Treva or MaD that is Mafia

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I thought you'd be smart enough to notice I lied though to save myself for tonight.

You make me feel guilty now

 

[hedger_14]

Ok, well I think everyone should investigate me tonight and that should prove who the insane/normal cop is and expose the mafia.

e.g. (Proving all players to be town atm)

If ARay investigates me and gets mafia, he is insane and MaD is mafia.
If Treva investigates me and gets mafia, he is insane and ARay is mafia.
If MaD investigates me and gets mafia, he is insane and Tom is mafia
If Tom investigates me and gets town, then he is normal and Treva is mafia.

I can warn you guys though that you are likely going to get two mafia results. The mafia will say they got a result which proves their first night target to be mafia e.g. MaD is mafia and he says he investigated me and gets mafia and tries to prove that Tom is the remaining mafia, while one of the others will likely say that they have the final mafia (Using that as an example though) so choose wisely before lynching as I'm likely to be dead by then.

So using probability (in my head so I can't give you exact probabilities), I can say Highlander is the most likely to be town apart from myself, due to the fact that he gets a mafia result, and based on having 4 cops with 4 townies and one mafia, there are likely to be two town results and two mafia results (as based on probability, the naive and paranoid doctor will always get the same result - town and mafia) and more than likely, the other player has a 3/4 chance of picking up a townie and the normal will get a town result and insane will get mafia so 2 in 2. That leaves the final mafia who would likely claim they got a town result to show that they could be the real cop.

And I'll just say, it looks like ARay is also townie from his gameplay. If he was mafia, then there wouldn't be much point in proving I was townie as he could just keep it to himself and kill me at night and also wouldn't allow the other townies to get their coordination for the next night investigation correct. So I'm leaning towards MaD or Treva as the mafia member.

Anyway, that's all I've really got to post.

 

[MaD]

O, I'm not sure what you're saying but I know I'm town so if what you say is correct, than its either you or treva that are mafia.

 

[hedger_14]

Well if it makes you feel any better. It is either Treva or MaD that is Mafia

And can I ask you how you come to conclusion? I understand that you're going to say you are the townie but how can Highlander not be the mafia member?

Even though I feel one of Treva or MaD are the mafia.

And don't worry, I was thinking that the mafia wouldn't bother checking the probabilities and I wouldn't die tonight but yes, it allows better coordination for tonight's investigation, which makes me believe you are townie.

 

[ARay]

And can I ask you how you come to conclusion? I understand that you're going to say you are the townie but how can Highlander not be the mafia member?

Even though I feel one of Treva or MaD are the mafia.

And don't worry, I was thinking that the mafia wouldn't bother checking the probabilities and I wouldn't die tonight but yes, it allows better coordination for tonight's investigation, which makes me believe you are townie.

Thats because of the combinations,
4 people have no reason to lie about their results. 1 has to lie his results.
So if you were mafia and the predictions played out, Highlander would defintely be either insane/paranoid. I mean I dont see why he would lie about his result if he was townie.
That leave out me, treva and MaD filling the two roles (naive/Normal). Two of us would be telling the truth and one of us would be faking the result.

So in Essense highlander and you are both clear the way I see it. I know I am not mafia, so its just 50-50 between the other 2.

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Hedger the situation you say leaves us in 50-50 situation tom. With two people fighting to prove the other is mafia?
I would say we all investigate different people and then work our way through that.

 

[Papa_Smurf]

And don't worry, I was thinking that the mafia wouldn't bother checking the probabilities.

Lol, you'd be surprised

I think if we're going to have a game of this sort in the future, then I thnk we need to establish a rule that both the modder and the players have to be in more or less similar time zones. Otherwise, it just ruins the quick and fluid nature of the game.

 

[ARay]

Lol, you'd be surprised

I think if we're going to have a game of this sort in the future, then I thnk we need to establish a rule that both the modder and the players have to be in more or less similar time zones. Otherwise, it just ruins the quick and fluid nature of the game.

True. Its rather interesting though. Have to put a lot more thought to the process.

 

[ARay]

And can I ask you how you come to conclusion? I understand that you're going to say you are the townie but how can Highlander not be the mafia member?

Actually now that I think about it some more, Highlander could still possibly be mafia. Dammit.

 

[hedger_14]

Highlander could still possibly be mafia. Dammit.

Yeah, exactly. Cause I can be paranoid while he can be insane or vice versa or normal I guess cause one of the people we've investigated might actually be mafia.

 

[barmyarmy]

Where are User2010 and Haari when you need them?

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3 no lynches to end the day.

 

[hedger_14]

Ok. Well we're not going to get anywhere else today so:

No Lynch

 

[treva]

Read through, everybody makes sense. Massively suspicious of MaD, especially if you are narrowing it down to just me and him, which I don't think should be done at this stage with other possibilities still there.

No Lynch

 

[Haarithan]

A no lynch looks inevitable. So just end the day already Colin.

 

[barmyarmy]

Meh. Whatever.
It's now night 1. Send me roles.