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Epic, I will tell you why we won`t come even close to winning this one. Firstly, Dhoni has been through Jo`burg and Wellington recently. At Jo`burg he had 450 runs in the bag to defend in a little over 4 sessions and yet we came so close to losing it after being a wicket away from winning it. It happened again in NZ where we let them get away from 95/5, trailing by 250+!
Dhoni, who is even otherwise a defensive captain will now be even more cautious in setting targets. Presuming that England bat out the whole day today and we get a lead of 100ish, Dhoni would`nt be willing to set a target of anything less than 500 in 3 sessions which would take us into Day 4. The rate at which anything happens in this test match is too slow to get us a result, especially in India`s favor. If any team can win this game, it has to still be England, purely because of the fact that they can still afford to grind out a 500 target and try to trigger an Indian batting collapse which is very likely.
Draw - 60%, England win- 30%, India win - 10%.