Playoff Scenarios
With each team left with only one or two games to play and the top of the table mostly sorted out, there aren't too many permutations and combinations that need to be taken into account for the playoffs. But here's what we have.
Mumbai - P 15 (11-4) Pts 22 NRR +0.640 Remaining @KXIP
Mumbai have already qualified for the playoffs and are a good bet for the top spot in the table. Their remaining game at Dharamsala is comparatively easier than CSK's away game in Bangalore, and if they win that game, they have the advantage of the NRR on their side. If Mumbai lose, they can still be top of the table if CSK also lose and Rajasthan don't win by a big enough margin to cover the NRR gap. Mumbai can finish no worse than third - that will happen if they lose by a large margin, and CSK win, and RR win by a huge margin.
Chennai - P 15 (11-4) Pts 22 NRR +0.625 Remaining @RCB
The Super Kings are through to the playoffs as well, but their route to pole position is more difficult than MI. They lag slightly on NRR and their remaining game is away at the desperate-to-make-the-playoffs RCB. A loss means that #1 is out of the question, but if RR also lose, Chennai can still avoid the eliminator. A loss and an RR win still favors Chennai because of their superior NRR. A win for CSK guarantees a top-two finish. Like Mumbai, they can finish no lower than third.
Rajasthan - P 15 (10-5) Pts 20 NRR +0.423 Remaining @SRH
The Royals are in the playoffs due to their impressive home record (8-0) and look to be glued to third place - there's not much room for movement in the table. A win coupled with losses for both MI and CSK is the only chance of advancement, but even then the NRR comes into the picture and blowing out the Sunrisers at home is probably not a likely scenario. If either MI or CSK win their game, the Royals will have to play in the eliminator. A loss doesn't knock them out, either. The only team that can catch up to them is SRH, which happens if the Royals lose and the Sunrisers win their other game. But the Sunrisers are hampered by a hideous NRR and will have to cover a gap of 0.5 in two games, which is nigh impossible.
Bangalore - P 15 (8-7) Pts 16 NRR +0.387 Remaining v CSK
Yesterday's loss to the KXIP has landed the RCB in dire straits, and it doesn't get any easier from here. They cannot catch up to either of the teams in the top 3. Their last game at home against the CSK is a must-win, but that doesn't guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. If RCB win but Sunrisers win both their games, RCB are left behind on points. If RCB win and SRH splits their games, Bangalore's superior NRR should see them through. If RCB win and SRH lose both games, RCB are through. If both teams lose all their remaining games, RCB will be through on superior NRR.
Hyderabad - P 14 (8-6) Pts 16 NRR -0.117 Remaining v RR, v KKR
The Sunrisers' story is intertwined with the Royal Challengers, but unlike RCB, SRH control their own fate. They win both their remaining games (at home, where they are 5-1, but that 1 was a destruction at the hands of CSK which hurt their NRR) and they are through on points, regardless of what RCB can do. They don't want to leave it to NRR, because their's is a terrible -0.117. If the Sunrisers split their games and RCB lose, SRH are still through on points. NRR comes into the picture if SRH win one and RCB win their game, or if SRH and RCB lose their remaining games. In either of those scenarios, it will take a miracle to see SRH through.
Punjab - P 14 (6-8) Pts 12 NRR +0.046 Remaining v DD, v MI
Punjab are the only other team remaining with a chance at the playoffs, albeit they do not completely control their own fate. In order to advance, they must win their remaining games (both at home, but one against table-topping MI) and then hope that RCB and SRH lose all their remaining games. That forces a three-way tie on 16 points, and then Punjab must win by big enough margins to wipe out a .34 difference in NRR. If KXIP lose once, they are out. If they win out but either RCB or SRH win at least once, Punjab is still out.
Kolkata - P 15 (6-9) Pts 12 NRR -0.065 Remaining @ SRH
Today's loss to PWI has mathematically ended KKR's chance of qualifying, but they can still play spoilsport and ruin the Sunrisers' campaign by winning their remaining game.
Delhi - P 14 (3-11) Pts 6 NRR -0.804 Remaining @KXIP, @PWI
Daredevils have been out of playoff contention for a while, but if they win out, they will be guaranteed not to finish in last place, and they will end the hopes of Punjab.
Pune - P 15 (3-12) Pts 6 NRR -1.203 Remaining v DD
The Warriors are all but set to win the Wooden Spoon on account of their terrible record and equally horrible NRR. But if Delhi lose both their games, then the Warriors will escape last place.
Most likely outcomes - purely my opinion
1 MI (12-4) 24 points, superior NRR to CSK
2 CSK (12-4) 24 points
3 RR (10-6), 20 points, superior NRR to SRH
4 SRH (10-6), 20 points
5 RCB (8-8), 16 points
6 KXIP (7-9), 14 points
7 KKR (6-10), 12 points
8 PWI (4-12), 8 points
9 DD (3-13), 6 points.
Sorry to Delhi fans, I just don't think they've got it to avoid the Spoon.