Missed the first 3 days and will confess to not reading all 110 pages of this thread before posting...
Seems to me that a lot of our predictions were spot on here. Aus with a weak bowling attack struggling to restrict England, English batsmen with their propensity to give away wickets and not be got out and Australian batsmen who are rock solid and are able to block the good balls and put away the bad.
I didn't think playing Panesar was the right decision. It seems like the groundstaff at Cardiff were so terrified of not getting all 5 days in due to their spinning wicket they totally killed it. If England can bat responsibly second time round it will be yet another 5-day run-fest on a bowler-hating pitch and if they can't, as has happened so often, Aus will be going 1-0 up.
If only there was a pitch in England that provided pace and bounce and turned too like Old Trafford. That would be a great place to have an Ashes test. Oh wait...