Prior will make runs no doubt but how many runs does he concede to dropped catches? I think he conceded more runs to dropped catches that the actual runs he scored himself, which is unacceptable.
Better drop Cook then............................
Today's morning session isn't quite crucial, but England must aim to get at least a couple of wickets. The deficit should be all gone by lunch, England won't want to be chasing more than 200-250. 120/2 say would be well set to put up a 200+ target, it may not equate to much of a lead at that score, but with wickets in hand they'd be in front and from that size deficit on 1st innings you would want to get to parity with less than 3 wickets down.
England Leads/Deficits Since 2000
100+ runs ahead : P36 W27 D8 L1 (Won 75.00%)
1st innings leads : P61 W39 D19 L3 (Won 63.93%)
So chances are England will win, the only defeat from 100+ runs in front was the disaster in Pakistan (Multan 05/06) when England were 144 runs in front. I still blame the spinners, Giles and Udal took just two wickets between them in the match while conceding 205 runs. In the context of the 1st innings, they took 1/91 when Pakistan were bowled out for 274 which isn't a good contribution from 2/5 of the bowling attack. 2nd innings they took 1/114, almost exactly 1/3 of the runs, 1/10 of the wickets from 2/5 of the attack. Udal should never have been picked at his age, nothing more than a catastrophic move by England and the Ashes were followed up be a pretty poor run of series (P3 W0 D2 L1) Still a pretty good record overall, only losing three times having been ahead on 1st innings since 2000
And with regards the two losses this series :-
2nd Test : 100+ runs behind : P33 W3 D8 L22 (Won 9.09%)
3rd Test : 75-99 runs behind : P3 W0 D2 L1 (Won 0.00%)
The three wins from 100+ runs behind were against :
179 deficit vs New Zealand (2nd Test, Old Trafford 2008)
138 deficit vs Australia (4th Test, Headingley 2001)
133 deficit vs West Indies (2nd Test, Lords 2000)
All at home, the only side of serious note declared to make a game of it at Headingley and Butcher made 173no. Once we got that far behind against South Africa it was unlikely we would win, shows the importance of making runs in the 1st innings. In 112 previous Tests involving England since 2000, the sides that have held a 1st innings lead have this record : W70 D30 L12 (Won 62.50%) Only on four occaisions has someone turned around a 100+ run deficit (3.57%) so the omens are good for England. England's average 1st innings total is 345 compared to the opposition's 343 - 1/3 were against New Zealand, Bangladesh, West Indies and Zimbabwe who make up 28 of England's 48 wins in that period