Classic Mafia 02 - The End

[Abhas]

@Simon, @yashdude101 - What do you make of the day's play?
both of their only posts have been summarizing the obvious.

At the moment, I think it would be best if we can get good discussion going, and then eventually the cop will have to reveal his result (which, I feel is pro-town, considering the lack of any real conviction in anybody's lynching).
I really wish the doc protected the cop last night.. That would rule out a CC.

Oh, and can either of Yash and thedon change their sigs.. I almost got confused there for a minute

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Oh, and can either of Yash Yudi and thedon change their sigs.. I almost got confused there for a minute

Proves how confused I got

 

[thedon5]

Lol it's my sig, KBC made it for me.

 

[SiriusBlack]

edited

 

[Abhas]

So, to sum it up, you're saying, you're suspicious of Sulaiman, more than others?

 

[hedger_14]

At the moment, I think it would be best if we can get good discussion going, and then eventually the cop will have to reveal his result (which, I feel is pro-town, considering the lack of any real conviction in anybody's lynching).
I really wish the doc protected the cop last night.. That would rule out a CC.

The first comment you've made sums up what we should be doing. (Yudi, please don't rush us. Just give warning when you want a move on and then cop can out then, otherwise cop just out when you feel like it's a good idea, please do so today though).

Although don't really agree with your second comment. If cop is saved, then doc actually has to out (if they're getting lynched regardless), then doc dies that night and there's no other clears from the doc save.

Even if cop's are cc'd, we still have a 50% chance of hitting mafia, we have at least one clear from the real cop's report, and you have the doc and his save, which is good.

And, I really want to know what Sulaiman meant when he said, "the chances are more of Hedger being vanilla rather than mafia".

Didn't he mention the probability of 3:2 being 3 vanillas and 2 mafia? Or am I just imagining things. Not much of an argument.

Sulaiman's been a bit out of place, looks like he's trying but he seems to be somewhere else, so it's hard to get a good read on him.

 

[thedon5]

Why do you want the cop to out so bad now?

So is your strategy that doc outs as well, and plays sacrificial lamb to save the cop? Seems pointless to me IMO, but I guess the cop can do what they see to be the best option. I haven't played a game like this before, but I reckon the cop outing tomorrow would be the better idea.

Can you explain your opinion further please, if the cop is a new player I don't want them to come out purely because of your post thinking it is the only option.

 

[Abhas]

Why I feel, if the doc protected the cop tonight, we're in a better position is because, in case of a CC, the doc would know which is the real cop, and who is the mafia. He can lead the lynch of the mafia, and the cop will get another night of investigation (I'm assuming the same person cannot be targeted twice).

thedon, if the cop doesn't reveal today, we are risking him being killed at night, and we would be back to square 1, in a worse position.
If he reveals the result today, we're essentially clearing a townie, and clearing the cop, so that's 3 townies confirmed (including yourself), and the doc can either lay low, or come out and lynch the mafia if there's a CC.
He can protect the cop at night, and sacrifice himself, but we'll still be in a much stronger position, because the cop would have cleared another name/caught the remaining mafia.

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Even if cop's are cc'd, we still have a 50% chance of hitting mafia, we have at least one clear from the real cop's report, and you have the doc and his save, which is good.

That's a huge risk. We either get a mafia, or we knock off the most powerful town role. What if we lynch the cop by mistake, and the mafia knock out the doc at night? There's no coming back.

The doc only needs to reveal himself if there is a CC, and he has protected either of the two people.
That way, we've protected the cop for sure for another night investigation.

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Didn't he mention the probability of 3:2 being 3 vanillas and 2 mafia? Or am I just imagining things. Not much of an argument.

That was me, arguing that what he's saying has no basis.

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So is your strategy that doc outs as well, and plays sacrificial lamb to save the cop?

That's only if he understands that he has saved the real cop last night, otherwise he stays shut.

 

[thedon5]

I don't know really, to me it stills seems wisest for the cop to reveal tomorrow, but then again I guess that would be more of a closed set-up strategy. However, we have very little discussion going so maybe that would be best. Still, what if the cop is one of the very inactive guys? I certainly hope not!

Would like to hear more from User and yashdude, both have been really quiet. Simon has finally spoken up, but he tends to be a very quiet townie so we can't expect a great deal from him during the game. Don't need to say much about Sulaiman. Abhas and hedger have been quite active. So right now I have very little suspicion of who could be Mafia.

Btw.

Unlynch: hedger_14

 

[hedger_14]

So is your strategy that doc outs as well, and plays sacrificial lamb to save the cop? Seems pointless to me IMO, but I guess the cop can do what they see to be the best option. I haven't played a game like this before, but I reckon the cop outing tomorrow would be the better idea.

Uh, no? I just said cop outs. Doc should only out if he or his save is being lynched.

Cop outs is the optimal strategy though.

1) We have a mislynch. A clear player leading a lynch is the best way to go about it.

2) Say we lynch randomly and we lynch the cop. The cop outs, and the mafia are able to cc cop (because a mafia would claim cop if they were being lynched anyway), which pretty much means the cop gets lynched today, yes you have a mafia tomorrow but that leaves us at lylo with a maximum of one report, and a chance of doc dying at night.

3) If we lynch a non-cop, doc doesn't have a clear cop to be on giving a higher chance of cop dying at night and then there will be NO reports tomorrow.

4) Cop will 100% be cc'd tomorrow if he doesn't out today. Today, there may be a chance that mafia lets him go uncc'd in hope they can kill the doc tonight.

I don't really think there are any other disadvantages for cop to out now. Cop not outting leaves mafia with a chance to get back into this game, cop outting really leaves mafia with nowhere to hide.

He can lead the lynch of the mafia, and the cop will get another night of investigation (I'm assuming the same person cannot be targeted twice).

What do you mean? Anybody can target the same person twice in a row. I mean obviously the cop won't investigate the same person twice but doc and mafia can target the same person twice in a row. (Regulation classic mafia).


And Abhas, you're gonna end up having to lynch between cop cc's anyway. If we don't today, just say we lynch a vanilla as a result, that means mafia holds all the cards and can go a variety of ways. If we lynch between cops, if we lynch mafia, it's pretty much autowin. A couple reports, if doc survives past the night, then it is definitely autowin. If we lynch the real cop, then we have one cop report still, have one confirmed mafia, doc can out who he saved, and it's still a likely win.

Either way, there's benefits to going other ways but in my 500+ games of playing this setup, this seems the optimal way to play it.

 

[Abhas]

What do you mean? Anybody can target the same person twice in a row. I mean obviously the cop won't investigate the same person twice but doc and mafia can target the same person twice in a row. (Regulation classic mafia).

Hmm. It won't work then. I was assuming the mafia cannot target the same person twice.

Where the hell have you played 500 games?! This is my first game with this setup!

 

[thedon5]

OK, I think I agree with you. Let's wait for the cop to out now.

 

[Abhas]

I hope we can get more input from Yash and User before that.

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Wait. Nobody reveals anything yet! Let us go through things again, and meanwhile we need more discussion about the situation.

 

[thedon5]

I hope we can get more input from Yash and User before that.

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Wait. Nobody reveals anything yet! Let us go through things again, and meanwhile we need more discussion about the situation.

Yeah this is my opinion too, let's see what others say. Let's wake them up.

@Simon @yashdude101 @User2010 @Sulaiman7

 

[hedger_14]

yeah, I didn't want cop to out just yet, but just saying cop needs to out later today.

And epicmafia.com, the games obviously are faster (most games last 10-30 minutes, why I try to rush things and moves things along in forum mafia cause I get bored waiting)

 

[Sulaiman7]

And, I really want to know what Sulaiman meant when he said, "the chances are more of Hedger being vanilla rather than mafia". And, how he found Abhas being aggressive just with a joke lynch and a simple question. I don't find his logic for it to be strong enough, well it always could be what Thedon said about newer players.

Because the game had already started before hedger posted his role confirmation in the thread and nobody had been killed at the night, I meant that and that joke lynch thing , could have been just a joke FOS (for the newer players to understand).

Is this everybody's first game with this setup ?

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Yeah this is my opinion too, let's see what others say.

Well , I'd double that.