Classic Mafia 02 - The End

[thedon5]

I have a feeling the doc would have protected me... It wouldn't be a bad idea, I have been targeted or a possible target on night 1 in my last 3-4 days. What that means more than anything is he perhaps doesn't have a clear picture of who is Mafia as it means only me and yash are confirmed townies, not the best odds.

I don't think Simon's defence is bad, and Abhas has mentioned a valid point. If we lynch Simon and he is town, that leaves four townies, with another likely to be dead overnight. Assuming the doc doesn't die, that is three town. One would be me, one would be the doc, one is a townie. We would be one mislynch away from a loss, as one guy siding with the Mafia against a townie means they lynch off a townie. Mind you, I would have another report, and this will definitely make sure either way that we know a Mafia member or a townie.

I am in two minds, but I guess lynching off Simon isn't the end of the world.

 

[Abhas]

Abhas has mentioned a valid point. If we lynch Simon and he is town, that leaves four townies, with another likely to be dead overnight. Assuming the doc doesn't die, that is three town. One would be me, one would be the doc, one is a townie. We would be one mislynch away from a loss, as one guy siding with the Mafia against a townie means they lynch off a townie.

I don't think I meant to imply this, however, if you are left with a 3 vs 2 situation, it's a 67% chance of being a town win. The doc would reveal himself, and that would mean the cop + doc roles are confirmed. The other townie would obviously believe the cop and go for the man he is targeting (considering he got a mafia result).
If in case he got a town result, and that person is dead, that leaves us in a fix of choosing a mafia out of the 3 unknowns, still a 67% win chance.

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Obviously doc doesn't out today. (Unless his save is neither the cop or cop's inno when he outs) - cause 4 clears = autowin.

Doc: Please have a look at this post. If you saved anyone else, you can reveal yourself safely, so that we would have a 4 vs 3 situation.

 

[thedon5]

Yeah that post I made was a mess. I wrote one thing which was along the lines of what you said, then rethought and changed it.

I think we can safely lynch someone.

 

[Varun]

I haven't been following the game at all, if I had I would've replaced him inspite of the busy schedule. I'm sorry. :|

 

[AbhishekS]

That's alright, Varun.

I just got a PM from @RPHKR that he is interested in replacing Sulaiman. So here we have it, RPHKR joins in replacing Sulaiman. I'm sorry, Sulaiman, but your inactivity was hurting the game a lot.

Have sent a PM to RPHKR stating the role and the findings of Sulaiman (if any).

 

[surendar]

I'm wasn't too pleased with User's play. Apart from agreeing with everything I was saying, there was very little input. Certainly a known mafia tactic this.

Did I miss anything, since I have taken User's role - I would assume it was meant for me. I really do not get what you are referring 'agreeing to everything that I was saying' because I never agreed or echoed your views. Whatever I came up with my previous posts was my way of seeing the town & my own equations. Just that figured out, certain views matched with few opinions which I have mentioned clearly on what it matched & what I suspected and why I chose so & so.

So I do not get even 1% of the meaning of those bolded quotes of agreeing to everything! If it was typo which meant to user's initial behavior before I started to play, then it is fine. Just want to make sure that, we are not going by some blind assumptions.

Well, I don't really have to add much until Day 2 commences. I did already say I'm suspicious of Sulaiman, and that really hasn't changed.

lynch: Sulaiman7

Okay, so silence of Sulaiman is suspicious but which part is making you to think that he could be assisting mafia? We have seen silent character of becoming victim of town( Jack Ryder ) & silent character killing town ( Yash ) - both the types in our previous super hero mafia game.

So, if you are a town - what you see in Sulaiman as 'Anti Town'? In other words, I am trying to understand the lynch part.

Ideally, the doc should now have the best idea about the game. He protected a townie, knows the cop, and his pro-town result, which makes 4 people (if of-course there wasn't an overlap).
He can easily figure out, out of the remaining 3 people, which is town, and which is mafia. If only he can analyse his result, and the game, we might have broken through.

Provided that cop claim is true. I am assuming it to be true, but how are you 100% sure? I am still on 60% only and wanting to wait and see how the next day goes. The equation will look so messy if the claim turns other way, but since none of us hasn't claimed as cop - it is true unless Sulaiman is a cop by himself.

Latest takeover of RPHKR from Sulaiman is going to clear out few things, I am hoping for some inputs which will greatly help the town.

Mafia know the cop, they know the confirmed townie, and possibly might have figured out the doc too.

It is not rocket science I agree, but how are you sure that Mafia knows the cop now, when there are marginal chances of claim to turn false as we haven't heard from one person still yet.

That one person could be anyone, if newbie gets a cop role - he wouldn't even realize that it is not harm to come out saying that he is a cop( atleast, I would have done the same to be quiet & excited thinking I am super-duper inspecting the town if it is my first cop role ). In other words, cop's claim is close to 100% but not 100% true yet. So how are you sure that Mafia knows the cop?

** to remember that, Ste in last game was 100% confirmed to be Thor by a doc & we all went for it, but he ended up on killing side! **

Wanted RHPKR to add data points, at this time - my FOS still remains same with my vision to Simon & Abhas remain the same. i.e.

• Simon thought process of lynching Sulaiman anyway, is same as many could have thought here including me to break the silence characters. Simon coming out and speaking for himself ahead of Sulaiman gains him a edge over my suspects on Sulaiman.
  
• Abhas rocket science logic, though fishy in my eyes in certain place, but has valid points and hence no change in my perception/analysis of the roles discussed till now. I would still have Abhas and Simon at same level, but only next to Sulaiman.

I would lynch RHPKR if the silence persists still. But like to see the response from both Simon & RHPKR before I proceed next step.

@Hedger - Do you see Simon's defense anything fishy? Or Abhas rocket science sounding fishy? Just wanted to hear your thoughts as well. If you are to go for a lynch overall for today, who you would be lynching? One person!

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I am in two minds

Haha, Me too! Worst part is, my mind is so reluctant to type 'lynch' after realizing that only mafia game which I was part of with additional powers for townies, I assisted in killing of my own fellow members(town) - because they weren't helping town. So very very hesitant to go for any lynch as I am very eager to get that first fish in my nets!

 

[Abhas]

Did I miss anything, since I have taken User's role - I would assume it was meant for me. I really do not get what you are referring 'agreeing to everything that I was saying' because I never agreed or echoed your views. Whatever I came up with my previous posts was my way of seeing the town & my own equations. Just that figured out, certain views matched with few opinions which I have mentioned clearly on what it matched & what I suspected and why I chose so & so.

So I do not get even 1% of the meaning of those bolded quotes of agreeing to everything! If it was typo which meant to user's initial behavior before I started to play, then it is fine. Just want to make sure that, we are not going by some blind assumptions.

No, by User's play, I meant user's play, not yours. If you look back, user was agreeing to most of my posts, which I found a bit odd. You on the other hand have taken a completely different stance, which surprises me a bit.

Regarding the cop claim, I think it was well discussed that if the real cop is out there, he should claim. Sulaiman has posted after the cop claim, but hasn't made any attempts to even soft claim cop, so I'm inclined to believe thedon. Everyone has posted, and nobody's cced him, unless you're trying to soft claim here?

I don't know what you're implying by saying the mafia is not sure about the cop? Your reasoning leads me to only one possibility, that thedon has false claimed cop, but he's town. A bit far-fetched don't you think?
If there is anyone making a false cop claim, it has to be the mafia.
Besides, everything I've posted is in assumption that thedon is indeed speaking the truth, which I've duly clarified already.

You're 60% on an unchallenged cop claim, yet 100% on an unknown role, why?
You need to choose your side surendar, you can't try and ride both the boats, either you think thedon is speaking the truth and believe him, or you think he's lying, and Lynch him. You can't go about doing your analysis based on nothing.

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I've chosen to believe him due to lack of anything suggesting otherwise, and I'm basing all my arguments/analysis on this.
Of course, I may be wrong, and I'm open to listen to any suggestion which proves so, at the moment there is none, and till the time there is any evidence, you won't be able to alter my assumption.

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Edit: I just went through the thread again, and just realized, Sulaiman hasn't posted after the cop claim. I think I got myself confused with Simon there.

 

[surendar]

Your reasoning leads me to only one possibility, that thedon has false claimed cop, but he's town. A bit far-fetched don't you think?
If there is anyone making a false cop claim, it has to be the mafia.
Besides, everything I've posted is in assumption that thedon is indeed speaking the truth, which I've duly clarified already.

The bolded part clarifies my question, yes it is assumption of that to be true - exactly the same way I was going by for my views. An assumption is not 100% sure, we just believe it to be the case. Thanks for clearing it up.

You need to choose your side surendar, you can't try and ride both the boats, either you think thedon is speaking the truth and believe him, or you think he's lying, and Lynch him. You can't go about doing your analysis based on nothing.

Like I stated my suspect list earlier, I am already on the side of first, seeing him as cop and wanted to see how it goes.

Questions from me in above post were actually not related to suspect Don's claim, but it was for the additional confidence factor that I felt from you on his cop claim and want to clarify the same for my analysis. Like you said, assumptions/analysis will not be altered unless the evidences prove otherway, I agree.

Edit: I just went through the thread again, and just realized, Sulaiman hasn't posted after the cop claim. I think I got myself confused with Simon there.

Yes, that is correct and that is why I repeated - we are yet to hear from a person and I would personally wait to get that confidence level to 100%.

 

[hedger_14]

Overall I know very little about this game outside of yash being town. I would love to say my thoughts now in case I die tonight

Doc needs to be on you tonight. And as I said before, if doc has saved anyone that isn't Yash or thedon, you can out now for autowin.


I need to learn to get on in the middle of the night more, it's so hard to read through everything thoroughly.

I don't think Simon's defence is bad

It's not really good either. Not being able to get much day 1 is a pretty weak defence. And even if we lynch wrong today, we're still in a good spot tomorrow. I'd still like RPHKR to post his thoughts before we go ahead in lynching Simon though.

It is not rocket science I agree, but how are you sure that Mafia knows the cop now, when there are marginal chances of claim to turn false as we haven't heard from one person still yet.

EVERYBODY has had a chance to claim cop afaik. And if you're trying to soft it, just freaking hard claim cause anybody who claims cop tomorrow WILL be lynched. Same with anyone else who's just letting him go today.

@Hedger - Do you see Simon's defense anything fishy? Or Abhas rocket science sounding fishy? Just wanted to hear your thoughts as well. If you are to go for a lynch overall for today, who you would be lynching? One person!

As I said above, Simon's defence isn't very strong, just a weak defence assuming the role of a bored townie on day 1, which is what I did ages ago when I started playing and hated day 1's. Day 1's are boring for most unless you're good and able to find both mafia on day 1. And Abhas's rocket science? Is that just analysing the setup. Because I've been doing that as well to show why we should play to the optimal strategy. He's gone into more detail with it I think with mislynching and the small repercussions of it but I don't find it scummy. Then again, it doesn't make me think he's town either.

And I can't really say who I want to lynch until I've heard from RPHKR. It will be between RPHKR and Simon and whatever RPHKR will help decide who I'd rather lynch today.

I don't know what you're implying by saying the mafia is not sure about the cop? Your reasoning leads me to only one possibility, that thedon has false claimed cop, but he's town. A bit far-fetched don't you think?

Off topic but best strategy ever. More useful in other open setups though, roleswapping is so fun.


And oh, well Abhas pointed out whether Suren was soft claiming or not (I was just reading through it and replying as I went so hadn't read the last 2 posts up until now) so I guess suren's not softing since he didn't claim he was cop in his last post.

Anyway, I've probably missed a bit but it's hard to read through 3 pages in huge detail.

 

[RPHKR]

Okay, role received. I've been following the game. Sulaiman didn't know what was happening or he was not interested.

thedon5
Simon - No CC
yashdude101
hedger_14 - No CC
Abhas - No CC
Surendar - No CC
RPHKR - No CC
Hmm, two confirmed townies.


thedon5 - Likely mafia's target on N0(if town). Simon's immediate opposing post after his claim, I thought Simon was gonna CC, then none did. Town.
yashdude101 - Like for everyone, he was in my danger list before thedon5's claim. Town.
hedger_14 - His posts were really helpful for the town. Leading town.

Doc needs to be on you tonight. And as I said before, if doc has saved anyone that isn't Yash or thedon, you can out now for autowin.

This post makes me believe that he's town.

User/surendar - User wasn't adding anything. Good that he was replaced.
Abhas - Can't tell anything about Abhas now, he's a very good player.
Simon - Look at the posts of Simon from the start. He agreed to the most of the points. He said that he was suspicious of Sulaiman but didn't rightly explain his lasting suspicion on a new player.

Great, no first night kill. As for scummy behavior, I don't have much to say. Abhas was pretty quick to lynch User, but I think that's just a joke lynch.

Pretty obvious point.

Well, I can't really get much out of the discussion taking place in today's play..

If I were to say what I thought.. I don't really think Thedon really had a reason for lynching Hedger, to "take the focus off Abhas" when the lynch on User was clearly a joke. With no write- ups or clues, there was a need to start off the discussions. As Hedger said, you can't really rule out anyone being a mafia on day 1.

And, I really want to know what Sulaiman meant when he said, "the chances are more of Hedger being vanilla rather than mafia". And, how he found Abhas being aggressive just with a joke lynch and a simple question. I don't find his logic for it to be strong enough, well it always could be what Thedon said about newer players.

Probably will look like I'm going with what everybody else has said already, but that's pretty much all I have to add at the moment.

Well, I can't help but be a little suspicious of Thedon. For one thing, his posts starting from lynching Hedger seemed a little scummy. Plus, the last time he claimed to be sided with the town in the ashes one, he turned out to be the serial killer so I'm not too sure on this one. Maybe he's genuinely letting a townie who's new to the game off the hook just to blend in? I'm not saying he may be a mafia, but I'm not really convinced.

For me, no one is really confirmed to be a townie except maybe Hedger, because I kind of agree with what Yash had to say about him.

I'm still 50/50 on Abhas and User, and have already stated my suspicion on Sulaiman in my last post.

I thought he's gonna CC.

Obviously you missed something.

What did he miss?

Well, I don't really have to add much until Day 2 commences. I did already say I'm suspicious of Sulaiman, and that really hasn't changed.

lynch: Sulaiman7

This is the 'second' I don't have anything to add post.

I already said what I thought about every player in the last page, and they haven't really changed. I want to see the results of Night 1, before going any further. Until then my lynch on Sulaiman remains.

I would have lynched Sulaiman at some point anyway as we aren't really heading anywhere. On my second post here, I stated my suspicion on Sulaiman and if I had to go after someone, it would be him. My lynch is more from suspicion rather than defending myself, but I won't say that I'm not defending myself, which I am to a small extent with the lynch.

As for wanting to let this day pass, well it was only because we weren't really going anywhere. Say the night did come, the doc would know who to protect - the cop I.e. Thedon. The mafia would think that's pretty obvious and would go after someone else with a 1/4 chance of getting the doc. Even if they did get someone it would basically go back to being a lethal Night 0, only with cop getting another shot at finding out the mafia, this time with a better chance of getting the mafia.

Sulaiman is a beginner. He didn't know what was happening. Simon's only point was targeting him. He didn't analyse any other player. Staying under the radar, when questioned, he said that "I would have lynched Sulaiman at any point". New players always look scummy. Simon played safe by lynching him.

Massive FOS: Simon

May I know the lynch count?

 

[surendar]

OK I am willing to sacrifice myself if need be to save myself from getting any more bored.

I am the cop. Investigated yashdude night 0 and he came up as town.

That's about all I know.

Don, one small question - what is the actual message you got? Was it a straight forward message or some assumption/disguised message?

Asking this as I remember in previous game that doctor got the message 'Not Found' and we all concluded blindly that person as commuting power & as a townie while he ended up other way to survive in end.

 

[thedon5]

Don, one small question - what is the actual message you got? Was it a straight forward message or some assumption/disguised message?

Asking this as I remember in previous game that doctor got the message 'Not Found' and we all concluded blindly that person as commuting power & as a townie while he ended up other way to survive in end.

Completely straightforward and fairly concise.

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Yash and myself have lynched Simon.

I'm convinced, time to hammer. Surendar would be my favoured candidate to be his partner if Simon is Mafia.

 

[hedger_14]

Yeah, I think that post from RPHKR makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage, and Simon still has had enough time to prove his case but really doesn't want to add a whole lot even when in the line of fire.

So Lynch: Simon

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Completely straightforward and fairly concise.

This is classic mafia, not role madness.

 

[Abhas]

Right, so RHPKR doesn't CC cop, which means my assumptions might be correct.
I'm waiting for the doc to post his findings if he wants to, now that we are clear about thedon.

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If we can get 4 people clear, we've won.
It'd be a shame if the doc protected one of these two.

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Off topic but best strategy ever. More useful in other open setups though, roleswapping is so fun.

Possible, but very hard to pull off. Need to have all the players on the same wavelength. I've tried protecting power roles before, but didn't always go well

 

[surendar]

So my assumption of RP coming out as cop or doc didn't happen( that would have made the equation messy like I was pointing out early ), meaning this would get through Don's claim. Further confirmation of 'straight forward message' is also getting through Yash.

Geez, town with role claim was better! Okay, I anticipated a twist as newbie cop from Sulaiman but it failed.

With RP turning the tables now,

Lynch : Simon

I accept that I saw Simon as cornering Sulaiman for obvious reasons, but based on the discussions which everyone is putting up, RP and Abhas assessment is helping us relatively. Hedger-Don-Yash, safest people in my zone at this point in my list still.

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This is classic mafia, not role madness.

Meaning? I still didn't get it as I always thought - 'Success', 'Failure' and 'Not Found/Not Able to Find' would be the outcomes when we try to protect/investigate? Ooops, I haven't played Mafia games like you guys, so Yeah!