I think 250 would be a par 4th innings score on this wicket. Given Aussies are chasing 380, then it's going to need a great start by the top 4. If they can manage to be 2(or less!) for 150-200 then suddenly they are well within range.
It's probably the run rate that might kill them. If at any stage the required run rate gets above about 4.5 or 5 I think they are cooked. But...they do have players who can push the pace though. Katich is our only plodder and even he has had a stint in the ODI team for a while. It would have to all come together amazingly well though for an Aussie win.
And looking at some Aussie newspapers this morning, Ponting is getting rightfully roasted. It was disgraceful selfishness, and the fact that Tim Nielsen is supporting him is even more disgraceful. He's cost us a real chance at levelling the series, just to protect himself. Take out those 100 pretty easy runs and the game is even. The papers rightfully point out it's not his first infringement here. Hussey bowled earlier in the series for the same reason. Clarke/Symonds bowled in tandem in Perth last summer for the same reason. Ponting just doesn't get it and I wouldn't be against standing him down until he's proven that he can push the over rate along without using Michael Clarke.
And it's not just the wickets/cheap runs it cost though. We could have batted for longer last night, but the light was bad so Ponting has also cost us batting time by moving so slowly in the field. Imagine if we were 50 at stumps, suddenly the target's not so far away.
On an over rate note though, obviously the fines/suspensions don't really work. Apparently you need to be 6 or more overs behind to get in real trouble and that includes the extra half hour. So you can bowl 85 overs in 6.5 hours and the ICC don't care enough to suspend you, even though you should be bowling 90 in 6. I say if a team doesn't bowl at least 30 overs in a session without good reason - every session - they should be penalised. I'm sick of the constant bowler/captain conferences and tardy field movements. Please do something ICC...
